CHAD: 2009 HARVEST AND FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000488

SIPDIS

USDA ALSO FOR FDA VASHTI KLEIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR ETRD ECON
SUBJECT: CHAD: 2009 HARVEST AND FOOD SECURITY SITUATION
WORRISOME BUT NOT DIRE

REF: STATE 108138


1. (SBU) In light of concerns on the part of NGO contacts
and others that this year's cereals harvest will fall short
of meeting Chad's food needs, Embassy staff had conversations
October 27 and 28 with Ministry of Agriculture officials
including Docteur Paul, Deputy Director of Production and
Agricultural Statistics in the Food Security Division;
Goipage Akoul Idris, Director of Plant Production; and David
Adoge-Bang Weinor, Cabinet Director to the Minister, about
the current food security situation in Chad. All confirmed
that Chad's present national estimate for this year's grain
harvest -- 1.2 million tons -- fell short of the 1.4 million
tons considered necessary to sustain exiting levels of
nutrition throughout the country. The MoA contacts told us
that the Ministry was watching closely as Chad's harvest
season approached at the end of the year, given that lack of
rainfall this summer seemed to be slowing maturation rates
for corn and millet, and in certain areas causing crops to
dry up completely. Goipage also noted that spider
infestations had taken an unusually large toll on grain this
year, and that as less arable land was available,
grain-eating birds were having a more deleterious impact than
formerly on crops in fields. Paul said that Chad was working
with international donors including WFP to attempt to develop
a better understanding of the relationship between poor
implementation of environmental policy, which was resulting
in desertification and increasing land infertility, and this
year's expected low crop yields.


2. (SBU) Paul advised that Chad had most recently revised
its National Food Security Plan to take into account expected
shortfalls in this year's harvest in early October. One key
element of the revised plan would be attempts to stockpile
foodstuffs for eventual government distribution, should this
become necessary. Based on the updated plan, some animal
feed was being prepositioned in areas where food animals were
suffering and dying prematurely from lack of water and
nutrition. Paul indicated that the MoA was also trying to
address traditional tensions between farmers and herders over
use of arable land for grazing, which had expanded this year
and now also involved tensions among different groups of
herders competing for use of pastures. According to Paul,
the MoA also had plans to subsidize food prices in zones most
at risk, in order to curb expected social unrest if shortages
caused grain prices to rise. (NOTE: Chad's National Food
Security Plan is formally scheduled for review and revision
again in April 2010, or sooner if conditions warrant. The
MoA is receiving technical assistance from the FAO and French
Cooperation (USAID-equivalent) with the Plan.)


3. (SBU) Meanwhile, Minister of Agriculture Mbailao
Naimbaye Lossimian, who has recently returned from the UNGA
and participation in the luncheon on food security hosted by
Secretary Clinton, has been presiding over a series of events
calling for "public mobilization" in the aim of maximizing
harvests so as to limit hunger and malnutrition. On October
16, designated "National Food Security Day" in conjunction
with International Nutrition Day, Minister Mbailao expressed
hope that Chad could achieve food security even as the
likelihood of crisis increased, and announced the
Government's intention to distribute 100 tractors and 30,000
plows in an effort to boost grain production.


4. (SBU) On October 23, Governor Ngamai Djari of Kanem, a
chronic food deficit zone, was interviewed on the food
security situation in his province. Djari expressed concern
that rainfall was down this year and ouadis were shallower
than normal. He indicated that a number of NGOs were aware
of the situation and attempting to address it, but no miracle
solutions appeared to be available.


5. (SBU) We took the opportunity of our meetings with MoA
officials to deliver reftel demarche on the FDA's new
Reportable Food Registry. Weinor noted that Chad appreciated
the U.S. Administration's development of a tool designed to
protect human and animal nutritional well-being. Chad would
provide information as necessary to the database, he added.

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COMMENT
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6. (SBU) The MOA officials are the latest in a series of
local contacts to express concern to us about prospects for
this year's harvest. At a briefing last week, a joint
FEWS-CILSS-World Food Program crop assessment team projected
a harvest in the neighborhood of 1.1 million tons, vice the
1.7 million tons that were gathered in 2008-9 (and the 2.0
million tons that the Minister of Agriculture said he hoped

his gifts of plows and tractors would yield.) The
FEWS-CILSS-WFP group admitted that it was still grappling
with the degree of vulnerability of Chad's population, and
indicated that it would be in a better position to make
judgments after the first of the new year. Asked
specifically whether the situation warranted the Embassy's
requesting emergency Title II food aid imports, the team was
unanimous that current circumstances did not justify such a
step. We at the Embassy will rely on the USAID-funded Famine
Early Warning System project to alert us to potential food
crises, so that we can react with food aid if needed.


7. (SBU) In Kanem, the USG intervened following failed
harvests in 1996 and 2001, through FFP and OFDA, with
specific nutritional programs involving the operation of
supplementary and therapeutic feeding centers, along with
development projects aimed at boosting agricultural
production in ouadis. In 2001, as a result of a poor harvest
and spike in malnutrition rates, the Embassy declared a
disaster and funded a nutrition rehabilitation program in
Kanem. Toward the end of the program, OFDA fielded an
evaluation team that concluded that the situation was
chronic, and thus did not merit a disaster response. This
year, both the WFP and UNICEF have advised Chad's Health
Minister of their intent to provide resources for a nutrition
rehabilitation program in Kanem, starting in 2010.
NIGRO