CHAD: RUSSIAN SPECIAL SUDAN ENVOY BRIEFS PERM-3

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000465 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/C AND S/USSES NSC FOR GAVIN LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM RU SU FR CD SUBJECT: CHAD: RUSSIAN SPECIAL SUDAN ENVOY BRIEFS PERM-3 AMBS REF: A. NDJAMENA 462 ¶B. NDJAMENA 457 ¶C. NDJAMENA 446 ¶D. NDJAMENA 438 ¶1. (SBU) Russian Special Envoy for Sudan Mikhail Margelov briefed U.S., French, and Chinese Ambassadors to Chad October 20 on his Chad visit, at Russian Embassy over breakfast. ¶2. (SBU) Margelov said that a recent seminar in Moscow on the CPA was a Russian attempt to interest Sudanese parties in an alternative to either continued union or South Sudan independence. There were other possibilities, such as a looser federation or confederation, that fell between the two more extreme alternatives, that might work for Sudan. The Russian Federation itself, with some experience in holding fractious peripheral parts of a federal system together, might offer some models. ¶3. (SBU) Margelov said that he was sensing some hesitation on the part of senior SPLM leaders about the prospects of independence, for which they would completely responsible. Recent events in the South had divided and weakened the Southern side, increasing the SPLM's feeling of being on the defensive. ¶4. (SBU) Margelov described his visit to eastern Chad, meetings with SRSG Angelo, GOC officials, and parliamentary leaders and said he was scheduled to see President Deby later today. Margelov said he would be in Paris tomorrow for talks with the French and UN/AU Chief Mediator Bassole. Margelov said that he was studying the new USG Sudan Strategy, and that he looked forward to discussing it with his colleague, General Gration. Margelov added that he was still puzzled by the concept of "civili society" in Darfur. French Ambassador Foucher agreed with Margelov that this notion was a bit opaque. ¶5. (SBU) Margelov said he was currently slightly more optimistic about prospects for resolution of Darfur than for the complete implementation of the CPA, although the two situations were of course inter-related. He said that President Bashir needed a positive outcome in Darfur to consolidate his own position and to give him leverage for upcoming elections as well as for his approach to CPA implementation. A negotiated resolution in Darfur would increase Bashir's position vis-a-vis Salva Kiir and the SPLM. ¶6. (SBU) In response to Margelov's request, Ambassador Nigro and French Ambassador Foucher briefed on recent developments in Chad-Sudan relations and USG and French views on JEM (See reftels for substance of Ambassador's briefs.). ¶7. (SBU) Margelov said he was sorry that he had not been able to arrange to meet JEM while in N'Djamena, despite trying to make contact with the leadership since his arrival. Ambassador Nigro and French Ambassador offered to help, got their staffs on the phone to JEM here, and arranged for Margelov to see Khalil Ibrahim later in the morning. ¶7. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO