CHAD: UPDATE ON CIVIL SOCIETY DISCOURSE AND

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000441 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/C, S/USSES NSC FOR GAVIN LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM CD SUBJECT: CHAD: UPDATE ON CIVIL SOCIETY DISCOURSE AND OPPOSITION PLANNING REF: NDJAMENA 410 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Electoral Reform Committee created to implement the reforms of the August 13, 2007 Accord continues to focus on the task of educating civil society on political discourse, in preparation for 2010 elections. After some initial uncertainties (reftel),the Committee has organized two missions to conduct a country-wide awareness ("vulgarisation") campaign and has garnered European Commission and Swiss financial support for this effort. The Chadian political opposition, however, seems unenthusiastic about pushing forward with electoral efforts, perhaps because opposition figures believe the 2010 vote is unwinnable except by the Deby regime. END SUMMARY. -------------- CREATING A PUBLIC POLITICAL DISCOURSE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Electoral Reform Committee (ERC, aka Comite de Suivi),created to shepherd electoral reforms outlined in the August 13, 2007 political accord between the Chadian leadership and political opposition, is beginning to find its footing with remaining, admittedly vague, tasks, after its achievements this summer in reaching consensus on legislative reforms and establishing an Independent Electoral Commission (CENI). The element of the August 13 Accord that still squarely falls to the ERC, as opposed to the CENI itself, involves improving the general environment for civil society participation in the political process. To date, neither the Accord, nor the ERC, has had a particularly well-focused strategy for how this task is to b accomplished (reftel). In recent weeks, ERC members have developed several concrete plans, and budgets for accomplishing them. One of these involves undertaking a country-wide campaign to publicize newly passed electoral legislation, including the electoral law and political party charter, and to promote public political discourse. The program calls for two teams, each with a multi-week schedule, to travel around the Chadian countryside on what are being referred to "vulgarization" tours. ¶3. (SBU) ERC spokesman Salibou Garba told Pol/Econ Chief October 13 that members of local civil society organizations and press outlets would be included as points of contact in the ERC missions. Several international missions have told us that they welcome the increased precision that the ERC has developed about the teams, as the IC in general wants to see closer ties between the ERC and indigenous civil society groups. ¶4. (SBU) Still, the ERC faces significant challenges regarding future endeavors. The European Commission and Swiss Cooperation have agreed to provide the majority of financing for the upcoming missions, but funding gaps remain. According to Garba, the GOC is unlikely to fund the ERC's travel plans per se, and might only provide another three months of financial support to the Committee. The GoC, meanwhile, has switched its focus and (limited) ability to provide budgetary support to the CENI. (NOTE: The two entities have separate, but complementary, roles. END NOTE.) -------------- NEED FOR ENGAGEMENT BY THE OPPOSITION -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In a separate October 13 discussion, leading opposition figure Saleh Kebzabo told Pol/Econ chief that he supported the goals of both the ERC and the CENI, but he believed that a change in government leadership was truly necessary to empower and inspire Chadians to become engaged in a vote for the good of the their country. Kebzabo noted that despite the need for change, he was uncertain about the need for parliamentary elections next year and was willing to "lose time" until a high-tech biometric census could be completed. He admitted that a biometric census would not guarantee credible elections, but said he felt that it could "compel" Chadians to take a greater interest in the process. Kebzabo discounted the notion that the next electoral cycle presented an opportunity for change, regardless of the type of electoral census. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The ERC's two years of collaboration seem to have created some capacity within the body. With a bit of prompting from international partners, the Committee has been able to articulate a credible program of work, which has now elicited renewed financial support by the EC (Brussels had withdrawn funding when the ERC appeared disorganized earlier this summer). We hope that the "vulgarization" missions are not only successful, but that they kick off a larger, more concerted outreach campaign to the Chadian body politic. We will consider ways in which the USG might be helpful to its efforts. Meanwhile, we will continue to reach out to the opposition to make sure that it remains bought into the present electoral effort. Kebzabo seems to be holding back full endorsement of a 2010 vote on grounds that Deby is likely to win. In the coming weeks and months, we will pulse the range of opposition figures to better understand their current motives. END COMMENT. ¶7. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO