UN EXPERTS ON CHAD ELECTIONS: CENSUS WILL TAKE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000391 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/C AND S/USSES NSC FOR GAVIN LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM UN CD SUBJECT: UN EXPERTS ON CHAD ELECTIONS: CENSUS WILL TAKE 8-12 MONTHS, EVEN WITHOUT BIOMETRIC METHODOLOGY, MAKING 2010 POLLING LESS LIKELY REF: NDJAMENA 318 NDJAMENA 00000391 001.2 OF 002 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) A UNDP-sponsored team of electoral experts told us that they found Chad's "overall electoral environment" to be "positive" and had therefore recommended "significant UN support" to Chad's electoral process, including a "massive international observation mission." The team briefed Emboffs September 8 on the findings of their weeklong visit, making special note of the timing they believed would be required for various methods of conducting an electoral census, which must follow the demographic census recently completed. The experts estimated that a "simple" electoral census, using relatively low-tech information technology, would require eight-12 months, while a more elaborate "biometric" census, based on more advanced information technology (as specified in the August 13, 2007 Accord),would require 18-24 months and be much more expensive. The experts pointed out that either arrangement would call into question the proposed June 2010 date for elections and that the more elaborate "biometric" census would not in itself make the final electoral results more legitimate. ¶2. (SBU) We were encouraged by the experts' comprehensive analysis of Chad's electoral environment and their keen desire for the UN to be a major partner in Chad's elections. Their belief in Chad's election-related efforts to date lends support to the GOC. The surprising element in the team's analysis was the longer-than-expected timeline they predicted for any type of electoral census. We agree with the team that potential delays provoked by insisting on the more elaborate, "biometric" census are not worth the wait. We will be discussing this with other donors, who we suspect will share our views generally. END SUMMARY. -------------- CHAD'S ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Over the past week, local UNDP reps hosted UN electoral experts from New York, who were here to evaluate the feasibility of different types of electoral censuses in Chad as well as the question of whether conditions on the ground warrant UN support for Chad's electoral process. ¶4. (SBU) The UNDP team analyzed four elements of the electoral environment in Chad. -- The implementation of the August 13 Accord, which provides a forum for the opposition to enter political dialogue: The team judged positively achievements thus far under the Accord (Reftel) but said they strongly believed the process still needed support. Furthermore, they said, real challenges -- administrative and security -- remained. -- Types of electoral census: The team evaluated the feasibility of the recommendation in the August 13 Accord for a biometric census. It pointed out that any sort of electoral census would require two tasks: development of electoral rolls and distribution of voting cards. The group determined that a "simple" low-tech information census, where biodata are collected in a non-technical manner, would take 8-12 months. A high-tech biometric census, which the group said would be very technically sophisticated as it would include digital photos, digital fingerprints and other digitized biodata, would take 18-24 months. The team said that it was in favor of Chad's Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) deciding which type of electoral census to pursue, but members noted that both timelines called into doubt the viability of holding elections in June 2010. -- Administration of the Election: The team viewed positively Chad's successful implementation of those aspects of the August Accords that called for creation of an independent" CENI, but noted that the "political" composition of the body challenged its ability to carry out an election effectively. The experts emphasized that Chad's CENI was not NDJAMENA 00000391 002.2 OF 002 an administrative organization and noted that the CENI would have to decide who had ultimate administrative responsibility for elections. -- International community support: The experts were pleased to hear about ongoing or planned EU, U.S., and UNDP support for the electoral process overall but underscored that a "massive mission of international observers" would be necessary to ensure that elections took place according to international standards. -------------- RECOMMENDATIONS OF SUPPORT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The team also shared five recommendations that it planned to forward to the UNSYG for approval. The team strongly recommended that the UN support elections in Chad and divided its specific recommendations into two groups, 1) those involving the need to improve Chad's socio-political and security environment; and 2) those involving the need to provide technical and financial assistance. The experts will recommend that the UN: -- Support the Follow-up Committee established in the August Accord in its mission of implementing the remaining elements of the Accord, namely improving the general environment for political dialogue; -- Deploy a Peace and Development Advisor from UNDP HQ to Chad; -- Encourage closer collaboration on electoral issues among UNDP, MINURCAT and other UN agencies; -- Study the possibility of providing technical assistance to the CENI for electoral organization and administration; and -- Provide logistical assistance for an international observer mission. ¶6. (SBU) The team also said that it had tried to highlight to the CENI and other interlocutors that the notion of a high-tech biometric census, on the one hand, and the matter of transparent, credible elections, on the other, were two separate issues. The team said that a credible election would result from citizens' faith in the electoral system. A high-tech biometric census would not create that faith, they added, further noting that an election could still be viewed as lacking credibility even following a biometric census. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) We were encouraged by the experts' comprehensive analysis of Chad's electoral environment and their keen desire for the UN to be a major partner in Chad's elections. Their belief in Chad's election-related efforts to date lends support to the GOC. The surprising element in the team's analysis was the longer-than-expected timeline they predicted for any type of electoral census. We at the Embassy do not think that the delays involved with insisting on a high-tech biometric system are worth the wait. We will be discussing this with other donors, who we suspect will our share our views generally. END COMMENT. ¶8. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO