SRSG ANGELO CONFIRMS MASSIVE DEFECTION FROM REBEL

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000381 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/C, S/USSES NSC FOR GAVIN LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF MOPS MARR SU LY PKO CD SUBJECT: SRSG ANGELO CONFIRMS MASSIVE DEFECTION FROM REBEL RANKS, AS ARAB AND OUADDAIAN FIGHTERS RETURN TO CHAD REF: A. NDJAMENA 368 ¶B. NDJAMENA 355 ¶C. NDJAMENA 353 -------------- MASSIVE REBEL RETURN -------------- ¶1. (SBU) MINURCAT SRSG Victor Angelo told Ambassador September 3 that he could confirm that as many as 1,500 former Chad rebels crossed back into Chad from Sudan in the past few days. -------------- SOUBIANE AND HASSABALLAH -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Angelo said that the ex-rebels were from Ahmat Soubiane's FSR and Adouma Hassaballah's UFDD-Fundamental formations. Soubiane's fighters are primarily ethnic Arabs; Hassaballah's group is composed of Ouaddaians, easterners who include ethnic Arabs as well as other tribes. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) If the SRSG's information is correct, this looks to be the biggest single defection from the rebel ranks since Mahamat Nour and his FUC fighters (heavily Tama ethnic group) returned to Chad in 2006. This massive defection reduces the strength of the rebellion militarily and isolates the "hardliners" like Timane Erdimi and Mahamat Nouri politically, while underlining the latter's dependence on Sudanese sponsorship and largesse. ¶4. (SBU) This also validates the continued efficacy of the GOC's "intra-Chadian" diplomatic strategy (See Refs B and C). Now the trick for the GOC will be to get these former rebel chiefs usefully and permanently engaged in Chad, as for example the Deby regime has so far been able to do with current Army Chief of Staff Al-Djineddi, and but was unable to sustain with Mahamat Nour, whose tour of duty as Defense Minister (March-December 2007) ended unhappily. END COMMENT. ¶5. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO