CHAD'S NATIONAL MEDIATOR ON A ROLL: GOUKOUNI, SOUBIANE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000355 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/S AND S/USSES NSC FOR GAVIN LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PINR SU LY CD SUBJECT: CHAD'S NATIONAL MEDIATOR ON A ROLL: GOUKOUNI, SOUBIANE RETURN TO CHAD, OTHERS WOOED. REF: (A) NDJAMENA 353, (B) NDJAMENA 343, C) NDJAMENA 306, (D) 2008 NDJAMENA 274 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Chad's National Mediator Abderamane Moussa told Ambassador and visiting SFRC Staffdel August 24 that the GOC was fully committed to national reconciliation with Chad rebels and to facilitating similar reconciliation in Darfur. Moussa described his role in bringing ex-rebel Ahmat Soubiane and ex-President and long-time opposition figure Goukouni Oueddei back to Chad recently; detailed other recent defections from rebel ranks and projected optimism regarding future defections from the Chad rebels in Sudan. He also noted apparently successful ongoing talks between JEM and Sudanese government officials in Tripoli; implicitly validated the positive role the Libyans were playing in trying to end the Chad-Sudan proxy war and normalize Chad-Sudan relations; and speculated that either Salah Ghosh was paying politically either for having played his "American card" -- claiming that he could win major concessions from the USG by offering counter-terrorism cooperation, while seeking immunity for himself from future ICC action regarding Darfur; or for his failure to direct the Chad rebels to victory over Deby's forces and replace him with a Khartoum-friendly regime. ¶2. (SBU) Moussa projected pride in past accomplishments and confidence in his and the GOC's ability to make further inroads into the rebellion and consolidate national reconciliation throughout our meeting. An ethnic Kanembou from the southern edge of Chad's far north, Abderaman Moussa has been an insider in Chadian politics since the 1970s. He has been Ambassador to Sudan twice, serving a total of seven years in Khartoum. He has held high office continually under Deby since 1991: Ambassador to Nigeria; Mayor of N'Djamena; Interior Minister; Minister of Territorial Administration; Director of National Intelligence; and Presidential Counselor for Public Security and Military Affairs. National Mediator since March 2007, Moussa remains close to Deby, who relies on his loyalty and experience for advice and for sensitive missions inside and outside Chad. END SUMMARY. -------------- NATIONAL MEDIATOR ABDERAMAN MOUSSA -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Chad's National Mediator Abderamane Moussa told Ambassador and visiting SFRC Staffdel August 24 that the GOC was fully committed to national reconciliation with Chad rebels and to facilitating similar reconciliation in Darfur. Moussa described his role in bringing ex-rebel Ahmat Soubiane and ex-President and long-time opposition figure Goukouni Oueddei back to Chad recently. ¶4. (SBU) Regarding Soubiane (Ref B),Moussa confirmed that after his return to Chad last month, Soubiane traveled to Sudan to prepare for his mostly Arab troops' reentry into Chad, then went again to Tripoli to sign an accord with the GOC governing his final return, including some 57 vehicles that he is prepared to hand over to the GOC. Chad rebel die-hards Timan Erdimi and Mahamat Nouri, however, feared the impact of Soubiane's actions, complained to the Sudanese that there was the danger all the rebel fighters would follow Soubiane back into Chad from Sudan. As a result, Sudan seems to be blocking Soubiane's final effort to get his troops safely and peacefully across the border. So Soubiane had sent representatives to the Chad-Sudan border to facilitate the return of his troops. -------------- THE GOUKOUNI CARD -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Regarding Goukouni (Ref A),Moussa said that he had been instrumental in the ex-President's apparently permanent return, having personally traveled from Algiers with Goukouni. Moussa accompanied Goukouni to the latter's ethnic homeland in extreme northwest Tibesti, where the latter delivered a clear message to his fellow Teda/Toubou clansmen that they must desist from opposition to the Deby regime and join in efforts to develop the country, rather than dividing it. (NOTE: The Teda/Toubou-based armed opposition group, the MDJT, long has been losing support and effectiveness, but was still viable enough to be able to hold an AMCIT hostage in the NDJAMENA 00000355 002 OF 003 Tibesti in 2007-2008. END NOTE.) -------------- MORE DEFECTIONS FROM REBEL RANKS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Moussa mentioned other recent defections from rebel ranks. He said that two Paris-based and ethnically Kreda members of Mahamat Nouri's UFDD had come back to Chad in recent weeks. He asserted that numbers of (not better identified) southern rebels who had been operating along and across the Chad-CAR border had also come back to Chad recently. Moussa claimed as well that he was in contact with former national trade union federation leader, Djibrine Assali, who fled Chad last year after being suspected of involvement in the "Mahdi Movement," a millennial and violent religious cult that was suppressed with great force by government security forces in March 2008 (Ref D). -------------- NOTE TO PARA 6 -------------- ¶7. (SBU) NOTE: The Kreda are branch of the broader Gorane ethnic group to which the Teda/Toubou also belong. The southern rebels Moussa cited may be associated with the long-lived but relatively low-intensity rebel movement led by Djibrine Dassert, a former Deby Defence Ministry official. END NOTE. ¶8. (SBU) Besides the more prominent returnees like Soubiane and Goukouni, Moussa claimed that some 5,000 rank-and-file rebels had returned to Chad since last year. He admitted however that some of them had returned only to go back to Sudan and to the rebellion, while others "made a habit and a business" by defecting multiple times, taking advantage of both the GOC and the rebel chiefs. ¶9. (SBU) Moussa said that the extent of the Deby regime's "open-hand policy" toward rebels was "absolute:" Any Chadian who laid down arms and sought to return would be received, pardoned or amnestied, and allowed to return to normal life. "There will be no punishment, no humiliations," he said, "for returned rebels just on account of having been in the rebellion, despite the fact that they had been responsible for the deaths of Chadian soldiers defending their homeland." But those who had committed "common crimes" might face the justice system. ¶10. (SBU) Moussa complained, however, that the additional demands of many of the returning rebels were unrealistic. Some who had finished their education wanted a high-level ministerial post or even a seat in the National Assembly, which is an elected body. Some rebels who had deserted from the Chadian military wanted to reintegrate as colonel or general officers, to keep up with their contemporaries who had remained loyal. Moussa declared that Chad needed more teachers and doctors and agricultural specialists -- but not more senior administrators or senior military officers. Moussa sniffed that some rebels even wanted GOC reimbursement for the supplies and weapons they had bought to arm and equip themselves to fight against the GOC. -------------- JEM, SUDAN, AND LIBYA -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Moussa noted with satisfaction what he described as apparently successful ongoing talks between JEM and Sudanese government officials in Tripoli. He implicitly credited the positive role the Libyans were playing in trying to end the Chad-Sudan proxy war and normalize Chad-Sudan relations. He speculated that recently removed NISS chief Salah Ghosh was paying politically for having played his "American card" -- claiming that he could win major concessions from the USG by offering counter-terrorism cooperation, while seeking immunity for himself from future ICC action regarding Darfur. Moussa also offered the possibility that Ghosh's failure to direct the Chad rebels to victory over Deby's forces and replace him with a Khartoum-friendly regime was behind his removal. -------------- A DEBY "CONSIGLIERE" -------------- NDJAMENA 00000355 003 OF 003 ¶12. (SBU) Moussa projected pride in past accomplishments and confidence in his and the GOC's ability to make further inroads into the rebellion and consolidate national reconciliation throughout our meeting. An ethnic Kanembou from the southern edge of Chad's far north, Abderaman Moussa has been an insider in Chadian politics since the 1960s. He has been Ambassador to Sudan twice, serving a total of seven years in Khartoum. He has held high office continually under Deby since 1991: Ambassador to Nigeria; Mayor of N'Djamena; Interior Minister; Minister of Territorial Administration; Director of National Intelligence; and Presidential Counselor for Public Security and Military Affairs. National Mediator since March 2007, Moussa remains close to Deby, who relies on his loyalty and experience for advice and for sensitive missions inside and outside Chad. ¶13. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO