INTRA-CHADIAN DIPLOMACY: REBEL DEFECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000214 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/C, S/USSES - SE GRATION NSC FOR GAVIN LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF MOPS SU LY QA CD SUBJECT: INTRA-CHADIAN DIPLOMACY: REBEL DEFECTIONS CONTINUE, BUT GOC WILLING TO TALK TO GROUPS LIKE UFR REF: A. KHARTOUM 729 ¶B. NDJAMENA 213 ¶1. (U) This message has an Action Request for Khartoum -- see para 6. -------------- KHARTOUM 729 -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Khartoum 729, another of the Embassy's superb reporting and analysis efforts, confirms the potentially decisive impact on the Chad rebellion of the GOC's victory over attacking rebels led by the Union of Resistance Forces' (UFR's) Timan Erdimi last month. We supply in para 5 contact information that Embassy Khartoum can pass to UFR's Abakar Tollimi and others if the rebels indicate that they want direct talks with the GOC at authoritative levels. -------------- REBEL DEFECTIONS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) One sure sign of declining or collapsing morale among Chad rebels in Sudan is the defection count. Defections of Chad rebels anxious to return to Chad continue. French military intelligence believes that as of June 5 over 300 have defected since the May 4-7 incursion. The GOC recently held a re-joining ceremony for some 225 rebels, mainly from the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR). This number likely does not/not include the 200-odd rebels captured during the May 7 battles, but does include the 100 that the FORMIN claimed had rallied June 4 (Ref B). We are now using 300 as a round number for defections in the last 30 days. There are also reports of Chad government desertions and perhaps defections as well. -------------- GOC VERY OPEN TO TALKS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The GOC remains open to direct talks with Chad rebel groups, including the UFR, for whomever it speaks these days. The FORMIN said so publicly May 21 and reiterated that privately to us June 5. Although the GOC insists that it will deal with the rebels under the general rubric of the Sirte Accords -- to ward off external attempts to draft another negotiating document -- its position strikes us as more supple than that, as the welcome the GOC is giving (and always has given) to individual and small-group defections demonstrates. -------------- GOC CONTACT INFORMATION -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Here follows contact information for GOC officials who have indicated that they are open to contacts with Chad rebels. Foreign Minister: Moussa Faki Mahamat. Office: 235-251-3992, 235-251-6276; Cells: 235-625-0000, 235-986-9727. -- National Mediator: Abderamane Moussa. Office: 235-2524479; Cell: 235-629-0851. -- Foreign Relations Advisor to President Deby: Ahmat A. Haggar. Office: 235-251-4437; Cells: 235-655-4400, 235-966-0213. -- Secretary General of the MFA: Moussa Dago. Office: 235-251-5720; Cell: 235-626-8333. -- Foreign Relations Advisor to the Prime Minister: Ramadan Barma. Office: 235-252-6061; Cell: 235-629-6594. NDJAMENA 00000214 002 OF 002 -------------- ACTION REQUEST -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Action Request: That Embassy Khartoum consider contacting Abakar Tollimi or other Chad rebel leaders to provide contact numbers for GOC officials willing to talk to them. ¶7. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO