CHAD UPDATE, 5/8: GOC DEFEATS REBELS DECISIVELY

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000161 SIPDIS SENSITIVE KHARTOUM FOR SE GRATION STATE FOR AF/C, AF/USSES, S/ES-O, DS/CC, DS/IP/AF, DS/OSAC, CA/OSC/ASC NSC FOR GAVIN AND HUDSON LONDON FOR POL -- LORD PARIS FOR POL -- D'ELIA AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MOPS ASEC PREL PREF SU UN AU LY FR CASC CD SUBJECT: CHAD UPDATE, 5/8: GOC DEFEATS REBELS DECISIVELY TWICE ON 5/7; WILL GOC NOW PURSUE REBELS INTO SUDAN? REF: A. NDJAMENA 156 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. NDJAMENA 155 ¶1. (SBU) CHAD REBELS STATUS: As of morning May 8, the Chadian military inflicted two decisive defeats on Chad rebels. The rebels appear to have been decisively defeated in May 7 battles south of Am-Dam and later near Am-Timan, inflicting heavy casualties. Remaining rebels are dispersed and in flight back toward Sudan. Rebel columns still in Sudan made no apparent effort to cross into Chad. The UN may keep its security alert in place for southeastern Chad on grounds that fleeing rebels might try to victimize humanitarian aid workers. Earlier reports that Tahir Wodji, rebel Chief of Staff, was killed are not/not correct (Ref A). ¶2. (SBU) CHAD MILITARY REACTION: Our best sources confirm the basic content of the GOC's May 7 1600 press conference, namely that the Chadian National Army (ANT) battled and destroyed a majority of rebels in the area just south of Am-Dam on May 7. ANT troops moved eastward from Mongo, driving the rebels into a second line of ANT troops arrayed east of rebel positions, which destroyed the column as a fighting force inflicting heavy casualties and capturing perhaps hundreds. ANT troops then pursued the remaining rebel column further south and defeated them near Am-Timan, foiling their attempt to reach CAR. Disorganized remaining rebels appear to be trying to flee toward the Chad-Sudan-CAR tri-border area, and Chad forces are attempting to block any rebel retreat to Sudan -- which may account for continued, unconfirmed reports of skirmishes May 8. Final casulty figures on both sides are likely be much highers than those the GOC released May 7 of 20-40 troop ANt deaths and approximately 100 rebel captures. The big qquestion is whether the GOC forces will attempt to follow fleeing Chad rebels back into Sudan in hot pursuit, as Pres Deby has said many times that he would. ¶3. (SBU) GOC ACTIVITIES: The government plans to fly international journalists out to the Am-Dam battlefield May 8 for confirmation of GOC victory/rebel defeat. Political party leaders still expect the invitation to meet President Deby to be rescheduled for today after yesterday's cancellation, although no time has been set as of yet. The Foreign Ministry has convoked the diplomatic corps for 1215 local time May 8. ¶4. (SBU) MINURCAT: The UN has resumed normal humanitarian flight operations between N'Djamena and Abeche and Abeche and points north. Movements around Goz Beida are still halted due to ongoing ANT activity. ¶6. (SBU) CAPITAL CALM: Life in N'Djamena appears normal May ¶8. Lack of clarity as to what has transpired in the east is prevalent, although there is a noticeable decrease in tension. ¶7. (SBU) EMBASSY ACTIONS: Embassy has stood down some emergency action preparations but remains vigilant on all azimuths and is reviewing the current situation continuously. ¶8. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO