CHAD UPDATE, MORNING 5/7: REBELS CONSOLIDATE,

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000156 SIPDIS SENSITIVE KHARTOUM FOR SE GRATION STATE FOR AF/C, AF/USSES, S/ES-O, DS/CC, DS/IP/AF, DS/OSAC, CA/OSC/ASC NSC FOR GAVIN AND HUDSON LONDON FOR POL -- LORD PARIS FOR POL -- D'ELIA AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MOPS ASEC PREL PREF SU UN AU LY FR CASC CD SUBJECT: CHAD UPDATE, MORNING 5/7: REBELS CONSOLIDATE, MOVE WEST; GOC REDEPLOYS TO MEET THEM; CONTINUES AIR ATTACKS REF: NDJAMENA 153 AND PREVIOUS. ¶1. (SBU) CAVEAT: This message presents a composite view of the current situation based on a variety of sources, some more reliable than others, and our best analysis. Some reports re-circulate, gaining apparent momentum from repetition; others are based on rumors or garbled fact. We cite few sources in order to stay within SBU parameters. ¶2. (SBU) CHAD REBELS STATUS: As of morning May 7, Chad rebels appear to have consolidated into one or two columns that are moving between Goz Beida and Am-Timan in a northwest direction toward Am-Dam. At Am-Dam, terrain and road conditions directly to the west are difficult; rebel forces would likely have to continue north toward Oum Hadjer on the main east-west road or move back south toward Am-Timan before trying to move westward from there. The fastest way to reach N'Djamena is that main east-west road, which runs through Mongo. There are rumors of internecine fighting among the rebels. Unconfirmed reports claim that Wodji, United Resistance Force (UFR) chief of staff, was killed May 6 fighting. French sources say that apart from the now-unified rebel forces inside Chad, there was a rebel logistics/re-supply element still inside Sudan, along with some key rebel leaders, including Timan Erdimi. (We have sent by unclassified email a map of the rebel status as of this morning to many offices and Embassies. If you did did not receive it and want it, contact by email TomaszewiczAJ@state.gov.) ¶3. (SBU) CHAD MILITARY REACTION: Ground contact between the Chadian National Army (ANT) and the rebels seems to have been limited, thus far, to one or two May 6 skirmishes. According to French sources, the GOC is currently bombing rebel positions just southeast of Am-Dam with two MI-24 HIND attack helicopters. The same sources say that ANT troops are deployed in two north-south lines, one line of 5,000 troops running north-south of Mongo west of rebel positions, and the second of 6,000 troops running north-south between Adre and Goz Beida east of rebel positions. Minister of Infrastructure Adoum Younousmi is Acting Minister of Defense and is directing troop movements in the absence of ailing MOD Kamougue. He evidently seeks to fix rebels between two superior ANT ground forces and continue to weaken them by air attacks. The GOC remains confident in its ability to be successful. ¶4. (SBU) MINURCAT: The UN is continuing normal humanitarian operations in the east, save for the evacuation of personnel from around Goz Beida. The UN Directorate of Safety and Security passed unconfirmed reports of limited ground clashes between ANT and the UFR just outside of Am-Dam, which is northwest of Goz Beida. ¶5. (SBU) FRENCH MILITARY ASSETS: The French have deployed an "Airborne Early Warning and Control" (AKA an "Atlantique") airplane to assist the Chadians in gathering information on the situation and with airspace management in the east. ¶6. (SBU) CAPITAL CALM: N'Djamena remained calm May 7, with the usual undercurrent of rumors. Traffic in and out of town, including across the Chad-Cameroon border, continues at normal levels. ¶7. (SBU) EMBASSY EAC MEETING: EAC met May 5, May 6, and May ¶7. The current situation puts us right on the cusp of our single trip-wire. We have an AMCIT warden meeting and an LES informational meeting scheduled for late May 7. We have suspended TDY arrivals until further notice. Details of the May 7 EAC meeting will be reported septel. ¶8. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO