CHAD UPDATE, 12PM, MAY 6: CHAD GOVERNMENT FORCES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000151 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DOHA FOR SE GRATION STATE FOR AF/C, AF/USSES, S/ES-O, DS/CC, DS/IP/AF, CA/OSC/ASC NSC FOR GAVIN AND HUDSON LONDON FOR POL -- LORD PARIS FOR POL -- D'ELIA AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MOPS ASEC PREL PREF SU UN AU LY FR CASC CD SUBJECT: CHAD UPDATE, 12PM, MAY 6: CHAD GOVERNMENT FORCES BOMB REBEL COLUMNS IN SE CHAD, NO GROUND FIGHTING YET REF: A. NDJAMENA 149 ¶B. NDJAMENA 132 NDJAMENA 00000151 001.2 OF 002 -------------- KEY POINTS -------------- ¶1. (SBU) CAVEAT: This message is based on a variety of sources, some more reliable than others. We gather information from all sources and try to winnow the chaff from the wheat. Some reports recirculate, gaining apparent momentum from repetition. Some reports are based on rumors or garble fact. Some reports are more or less easily verifiable; others are impossible to confirm at all. Overall, however, this message conveys as accurate a picture of the state of play here as we can give. ¶2. (SBU) CHAD REBELS REMAIN AS YESTERDAY: As of morning May 6, Chad rebel columns remain generally as they were yesterday (REF A) -- three or perhaps four columns of Chad rebels are strung out along the border from points SE of Abeche to the CAR/Sudan/Chad tri-border area, north and south of Goz Beida town. They appear to continue to remain in static positions 50-60 miles inide the border, while sending out small scouting patrols. Rebel troop strength is still reportedly in the 1,500 - 2,000 range. The Chadian National Army (ANT) estimates 135 rebel vehicles. There was been no mass rebel movement since the columns entered Chad and assumed these locations some 36 hours earlier. ¶3. (SBU) CHAD MILITARY REACTION: The Chadian military used its air assets to attack some of the rebel columns the evening of May 5. Those assets are a total of four SU-25 Frogfoot close air support aircraft, three MI-24 HIND attack helicopters and two MI-17 HIP helicopters. The ANT remains in defensive positions around Goz Beida town. The ANT has deployed additional forces eastward from Mongo in central Chad. The ANT may have also deployed ground troops from Abeche to take up positions that would permit offensive operations against the most northernly of the rebel columns, perhaps near Abdi. There has been no increase in activity or apparent apprehension at military and civilian intelligence headquarters in N'Djamena, although some offices seem to be at low strength, which may indicate that officers are employed elsewhere. ¶4. (SBU) MINURCAT: MINURCAT SRSG Victor Angelo visited a quiet, half-empty Goz Beida May 5, without incident. He noted that MINURCAT continues to provide a law enforcement presence in Goz Beida and the ANT is deployed outside the town. He confirmed the absence of Chadian civilian and administrative personnel there, including police, gendarmes and DIS. The UN continues on highest alert consonant with continued presence in Chad and has suspended all routine humanitarian assistance operations in Goz Beida and KouKou, four kilometers from Goz Beida. ¶5. (SBU) SUDANESE AMBASSADOR: Sudanese Ambassador Abdallah al-Sheikh Nouredin spoke with Ambassador Nigro May 5, delivering the Government of Sudan (GOS) party line: that Sudan was not responsible for recent Chad rebel movements into Chad; that this was a matter among Chadians; that Sudan was committed to the peace accord signed in Doha last week; and that Sudan was committed to the Dakar Process, including a meeting of the Contact Group in Khartoum (for which no date has been set). Ambassador Nigro asked his Sudanese homologue if the GOS would prevent the Chad rebels from returning to sovereign Sudanese territory after these incursions, but received no answer. ¶6. (SBU) CAPITAL CALM: The capital was calm May 6, although rumors proliferate. Local and international media have picked up stories about events in the east and reports are being broadcast on local TV and radio stations. Traffic in and out of town, including across the Chad-Cameroon border appears normal. NDJAMENA 00000151 002.2 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) EMBASSY ACTIONS: We and all our partners, both civilian and military, continue to follow this situation carefully. We will report appropriately on the progress of the situation in eastern Chad. We are reviewing emergency action procedures as a prudent precaution and are sharing information with our non-official resident AMCIT and LES communities, as appropriate. We have scheduled a AMCIT warden meeting for May 7. ¶8. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO