CHAD REBEL COLUMNS CROSS INTO SOUTHEAST CHAD FROM

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000149 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DOHA FOR SE GRATION STATE FOR AF/C AND AF/USSES NSC FOR GAVIN AND HUDSON LONDON FOR POL -- LORD PARIS FOR POL -- D'ELIA AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MOPS ASEC PREL PREF SU UN AU LY FR CD SUBJECT: CHAD REBEL COLUMNS CROSS INTO SOUTHEAST CHAD FROM SUDAN, MAY 4-5 REF: NDJAMENA 132 -------------- KEY POINTS -------------- ¶1. (SBU) CHAD REBELS CROSS THE BORDER: We believe that three or perhaps four columns of Chad rebels have entered southeastern Chad since yesterday, and are likely strung out along the border from points SE of Abeche to the CAR/Sudan/Chad tri-border area, north and south of Goz Beida town. Total rebel forces may number up to 2,000 fighters in up to 200 vehicles. Only one of the columns appears to be moving westward, the others remaining in static positions just inside the border. ¶2. (SBU) CHAD MILITARY REACTION: Chadian National Army (ANT) units have deployed to defensive positions around Goz Beida, from which most civilian government officials and police have apparently disappeared. (This is a traditional Chadian bureaucratic practice when trouble arises.) The ANT has not taken ground offensive action against the rebels. The ANT has moved air assets -- two SU-25 Frogfoot close air support aircraft and one MI-24 HIND attack helicopter to Abeche from N'Djamena. ¶3. (SBU) MINURCAT VIEW: MINURCAT SRSG Victor Angelo told the Ambassador May 5 that he believes the rebels are trying to make two "political" points: That despite the recent Chad-Sudan peace accord in Doha, "we rebels still exist," and that "we rebels can act independent of Khartoum's wishes." Angelo departed mid-morning May 5 to Abeche, with the intention of visiting Goz Beida. He promised to brief the diplomatic corps on his return. ¶4. (SBU) CAPITAL CALM: The capital was calm May 5. Many senior GOC military leaders participated in a May 5 morning ceremony to install the new Chairman of Defense Staff and did not betray concern or anxiety regarding the developing situation in the East. The GOC issued May 4 a communique accusing Sudan of duplicity, stating that "the ink was not yet dry" on a bilateral peace accord in Doha when the Sudanese government launched Chad rebels -- its clients -- into Chad. ¶5. (SBU) ETERNAL VIGILANCE: We and all our partners, both civilian and military, are watching this situation carefully. The trick here is to separate fact from the fiction generated by a powerful rumor mill of often surprising creativity. We will report appropriately on the progress of the situation in eastern Chad. We are reviewing emergency action procedures as a prudent precaution. ¶6. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO