Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NASSAU 000451 UNCLASSIFIED SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD BF SUBJECT: Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B Visa Issuances ¶1. SUMMARY: Of its more than 340,000 residents, The Bahamas hosts approximately 40,000 Third Country Nationals (TCNs) who provide the bulk of low-paid labor and domestic services in the country. The Turks and Caicos Islands similarly host a large TCN population. The largest of these groups is the Haitian community. Post completed validation studies of 386 B1/B2 issuances with Haitian nationality and 315 persons of Jamaican, Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino nationality (dubbed "All other TCNs") who received B1B2 visas between September 30, 2007 and October 1, 2008. The overall overstay percentage for both Haitians and all other TCNs is low, averaging a 3.15% rate. However, the typical confirmed and suspected overstay applicant for both studies was a student between 10-19 years of age or a non-Haitian TCN of retirement age. The results indicate that a significant number of young applicants leave The Bahamas to attend public school in the U.S. ¶2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 385 B1/B2 visa recipients of Haitian nationality and conducted a separate, concurrent study of 314 B1/B2 visa recipients from five TCN groups normally resident in the Bahamas. Due to their socioeconomic status in The Bahamas and abroad, post considered these particular groups most susceptible to overstaying in the United States. These nationalities are Jamaican, Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino. ¶3. The validation study covered a 365-day period from September 30, 2007 until October 01, 2008. This date range was chosen to ensure that Post would avoid the possibility of mislabeling individuals currently present in the United States who have not exceeded their six month authorized stay in the U.S. as overstays. A CCD-generated list of 707 Haitian B1/B2 recipients and 1,650 "Other TCN" B1/B2 recipients was generated. Random sample sizes of 385 (Haitian) and 314 (All other TCNs) were obtained using the guidance set forth by CA/FPP. There is a standard deviation of 3.36 at the 95% confidence interval for the Haitian study and a standard deviation of 4.97 at the 95% confidence interval for the "Other TCN" study. ¶4. DATA COLLECTION: Post made at least four attempts to contact applicants over the age of 14 by phone at different times of the day. Applicants were told that the U.S. Embassy was conducting a survey of visa recipients and were asked questions such as "When did you go to the US?" "When did you return?" "How long was your stay" and "Did you encounter any problems with law enforcement in the United States?" In order to achieve maximum accuracy, Post sent all applicant data (including children under 14) to be checked against the DHS Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS) and the Automated Targeting System (ATS). This two-pronged approach was used to mitigate the high likelihood of inaccuracies that arise from use of only one data collection method. Overstay results obtained by phone were confirmed in ADIS/ATS. Once the data was collected by both means, applicants were placed into one of four status categories described below. ¶5. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES a. Returned: Of the total 385 visa issuances for Haitians only, we confirmed that 321 returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. Of the 314 visa issuances for all other TCNS, we confirmed that 271 returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. b. No Travel: A total of 21 Haitian visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel to the United States. A total of 21 other TCN visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel to the United States. When asked why they did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel, they responded with answers such as employment loss, no financial means, ill family member or a death in the family. b. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay: A total of 30 Haitian visa recipients were classified as inconclusive or a possible overstay. A total of 14 other TCN visa recipients were classified as inconclusive or a possible overstay. Post placed individuals under this category if four attempts to contact the applicant were unsuccessful and ADIS records on the applicant's travel did not clearly demonstrate the applicant had returned from the U.S. Post did not classify these individuals as overstays because it cannot be reasonably assumed that they are now living in the US; it is equally likely they had not returned their I-94 cards for ADIS input and were no longer using the phone number recorded in NIV. c. Overstays: This category consists of 13 overstays for Haitian recipients. NASSAU 00000451 002 OF 004 There were 8 overstays for all other TCN recipients. Applicants that fall under this category include those whose relatives confirmed the visa holder is now living in the United States, those who moved from the address they provided at the time of visa issuance and left no forwarding address, and those for whom the phone numbers provided at the time of visa issuance were disconnected. Post used ADIS data checks, to determine that the applicants were indeed overstays in the United States. ¶6. Results: Post determined that 2.19% of all Haitians and 2.55% of all other TCNS overstayed in the United States after entering on the B visa issued to them. General results are listed below: Nationality Total # Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstays Return Traveled Possible Overstay Haitians 385 83.38% 5.45% 7.79% 3.38% Guyanese 47 85.11% 4.25% 10.64% 0% Philippines 58 87.93% 5.17% 5.17% 1.72% Chinese 11 81.82% 18.18% 0% 0% Cubans 14 92.86% 0% 0% 7.14% Jamaicans 184 85.87% 7.61% 3.26% 3.26% Status of Haitian Visa Recipient Percentage Returned with no evidence of overstay 83.38 No Travel 5.45 Inconclusive/possible overstay 7.79 Overstay 2.19 Status of Visa Recipient on "Other TCNS" Percentage Returned with no evidence of overstay 86.30 No Travel 6.69 Inconclusive/possible overstay 4.50 Overstay 2.55 ¶7. Detailed Analysis: The study evaluated the individuals in each of the three status categories of age, gender and occupation. All Results are listed by percentage. a. Status Category by Age with Haitians (by percentage) Age Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay Return Traveled Possible Overstay 0-9 76.19 9.52 14.28 9.52 10-19 72.72 2.27 13.64 11.36 20-29 86.66 5 5 3.33 30-39 92.59 4.63 1.85 0.93 40-49 81.40 4.65 11.63 2.33 50-59 80.43 10.87 8.69 0 60-69 78.57 14.28 7.14 0 70+ 75 0 25 0 COMMENT: The results indicate that children of Haitian nationality between the ages of 0 and 19 were more likely to overstay than working-age applicants. A high percentage of middle-aged applicants had inconclusive results, likely due to the fact that this age group changes residents frequently. Elderly applicants between the ages of 50 and 70 tended not to travel. b. Status Category by Age with all TCNS Age Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay Return Traveled Possible Overstay 0-9 80.78 0 15.38 3.85 10-19 74.19 9.68 6.45 9.68 20-29 88.09 2.38 7.14 2.38 30-39 90.72 3.09 5.15 1.03 40-49 86.49 5.40 6.76 1.35 50-59 88.88 3.70 7.40 0 60-69 85.71 7.14 0 7.14 70+ 66.66 0 33.33 0 COMMENT: The results indicate that school-age children of at-risk TCN groups are more likely to overstay than working-age applicants. A significant percentage of applicants who are likely to have just entered retirement (ages 60-69) are also likely to overstay. c. Status Category by Gender Nationality Sex Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstays Return Traveled Possible Overstay NASSAU 00000451 003 OF 004 Haitians Females 84.15 4.27 8.54 3.04 Males 82.35 6.33 7.24 4.07 Guyanese Females 84.61 3.85 11.54 0 Males 85.71 4.76 9.52 0 Philippines Females 87.93 5.17 5.17 1.72 Males 87.5 4.17 8.33 0 Chinese Females 81.11 18.18 0 0 Males 50 50 0 0 Cubans Females 100 0 0 0 Males 66.67 0 0 33.33 Jamaicans Females 84.13 4.76 7.94 3.17 Males 89.65 0 6.70 3.45 COMMENT: Haitian, Jamaican and Cuban males are more likely to overstay than their female counterparts. Guyanese and Filipino females are more likely to overstay, although there is a significantly higher percentage of female workers of these nationalities living and working in the Bahamas. d. Status Category by Occupation - Haitian Study Occupation Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay Return Traveled Possible Overstay Not on Application 82.61 0 17.39 0 Retired 75 25 0 0 Housewife 91.67 0 8.33 0 Student 70 50 13.33 11.67 Toddler/baby 85.71 0 14.28 0 Services 88.40 3.35 3.35 2.90 Laborer 87.50 3.90 6.25 2.34 Gardener 79.31 17.24 3.45 0 Construction 84.61 0 15.38 0 Professional 76.19 14.28 4.76 4.76 Self-employed 75 25 0 0 Teacher 100 0 0 0 Unemployed 0 0 100 0 COMMENT: Students comprised the highest overstay percentage. This result concurs with post's overstay rate breakdown by age. Retirees, construction workers, laborers and Haitian nationals working in the service sector are the least likely to overstay. e. Status Category by Occupation - "Other TCN" Study Occupation Confirmed Never Inconclusive/ Overstay Return Traveled Possible Overstay Not on Application 81.48 7.41 11.11 0 Retired 60 0 20 20 Housewife 75 25 0 0 Student 78.72 6.38 8.51 6.38 Toddler/baby 69.23 0 23.07 7.69 Services 80.76 1.92 9.61 3.85 Laborer 90.47 3.17 4.76 1.59 Gardener 0 0 0 0 Construction 100 0 0 0 Professional 92.98 3.51 3.51 0 Self-employed 100 0 0 0 Teacher 92.12 2.94 2.94 0 Unemployed 0 0 0 0 COMMENT: Among the "Other TCN" study applicant occupations, students and small children are also most likely to overstay their authorized period of stay in the U.S. Professionals, construction workers, teachers, self-employed individuals and housewives are among the least likely to overstay their visa. CONCLUSIONS ¶8. Third-Country National residents in The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos (TCI) enjoy a relatively better standard of living than in their countries of origin. This especially holds true for members of the Haitian community; many of whom have lived here over 10 years. The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, like the United States, are therefore perceived as a destination for economic migrants where employment opportunities are available and established enclaves of the studied nationalities exist and thrive. The overall results indicate that Haitian and other TCN communities have established fairly strong socioeconomic ties to The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos and are currently unlikely to overstay when obtaining a visa. The results support the gradual decline of Post's refusal rate of Haitian applicants over the past four years - from 50.11% in 2005 to 26.19% in 2008. Refusal rates of the five "Other TCN" nationalities have remained constant since 2005. ¶9. In spite of most applicants' ties to The Bahamas, a review of the overstay results point to a trend in which resident Haitian and TCN NASSAU 00000451 004 OF 004 parents, upon obtaining their own full-validity visas in Nassau, apply for visas for their younger children in order to send them to live in the United States for educational purposes. It is unknown whether their parents' previous visits in the US were preparation for the move or whether relatives and friends living in the U.S. offered to house the children while they attend school. It is also unknown whether these children intend to return to The Bahamas following graduation from high school. Given the disproportionately high overstay rate of students and young children in both studies, Post is reevaluating its current interview and application policies for children under the age of 14 and will more closely examine these applicants' parents' financial ability to afford multiple family vacations to the U.S. Post also intends to further scrutinize retiree-age applicants from the "Other TCN" nationality groups. ¶10. COMMENT: Post believes this study remains valid as long as the current status-quo (lax enforcement allowing long-time and recently arrived Haitian migrants to live in The Bahamas and TCIs) remains in place. However, Bahamian immigration officials recently announced plans to increase efforts to stamp out illegal immigration and to reduce the number of foreign workers in the country. Post will conduct additional studies next year to determine whether these new GCOB initiatives result in an increased number of Haitian and "Other TCN" overstays in the United States. END COMMENT ZUNIGA-BROWN