Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NASSAU 000449 UNCLASSIFIED SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD BF SUBJECT: Third Country National NIV Validation Study - 2007-2008 B Visa Issuances ¶1. SUMMARY: Of its more than 340,000 residents, The Bahamas hosts approximately 40,000 Third Country Nationals (TCNs) who provide the bulk of low-paid labor and domestic services in the country. The Turks and Caicos Islands similarly host a large TCN population. The largest of these groups is the Haitian community. Post completed validation studies of 386 B1/B2 issuances with Haitian nationality and 315 persons of Jamaican, Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino nationality (dubbed "All other TCNs") who received B1B2 visas between September 30, 2007 and October 1, 2008. The overall overstay percentage for both Haitians and all other TCNs is low, averaging a 3.15% rate. However, the typical confirmed and suspected overstay applicant for both studies was a student between 10-19 years of age or a non-Haitian TCN of retirement age. The results indicate that a significant number of young applicants leave The Bahamas to attend public school in the U.S. ¶2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 385 B1/B2 visa recipients of Haitian nationality and conducted a separate, concurrent study of 314 B1/B2 visa recipients from five TCN groups normally resident in the Bahamas. Due to their socioeconomic status in The Bahamas and abroad, post considered these particular groups most susceptible to overstaying in the United States. These nationalities are Jamaican, Guyanese, Chinese, Cuban and Filipino. ¶3. The validation study covered a 365-day period from September 30, 2007 until October 01, 2008. This date range was chosen to ensure that Post would avoid the possibility of mislabeling individuals currently present in the United States who have not exceeded their six month authorized stay in the U.S. as overstays. A CCD-generated list of 707 Haitian B1/B2 recipients and 1,650 "Other TCN" B1/B2 recipients was generated. Random sample sizes of 385 (Haitian) and 314 (All other TCNs) were obtained using the guidance set forth by CA/FPP. There is a standard deviation of 3.36 at the 95% confidence interval for the Haitian study and a standard deviation of 4.97 at the 95% confidence interval for the "Other TCN" study. ¶4. DATA COLLECTION: Post made at least four attempts to contact applicants over the age of 14 by phone at different times of the day. Applicants were told that the U.S. Embassy was conducting a survey of visa recipients and were asked questions such as "When did you go to the US?" "When did you return?" "How long was your stay" and "Did you encounter any problems with law enforcement in the United States?" In order to achieve maximum accuracy, Post sent all applicant data (including children under 14) to be checked against the DHS Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS) and the Automated Targeting System (ATS). This two-pronged approach was used to mitigate the high likelihood of inaccuracies that arise from use of only one data collection method. Overstay results obtained by phone were confirmed in ADIS/ATS. Once the data was collected by both means, applicants were placed into one of four status categories described below. ¶5. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES a. Returned: Of the total 385 visa issuances for Haitians only, we confirmed that 321 returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. Of the 314 visa issuances for all other TCNS, we confirmed that 271 returned with no evidence of overstaying in the United States. b. No Travel: A total of 21 Haitian visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel to the United States. A total of 21 other TCN visa recipients did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel to the United States. When asked why they did not use their B1/B2 visas to travel, they responded with answers such as employment loss, no financial means, ill family member or a death in the family. c. Inconclusive/Possible Overstay: A total of 30 Haitian visa recipients were classified as inconclusive or a possible overstay. A total of 14 other TCN visa recipients were classified as inconclusive or a possible overstay. Post placed individuals under this category if four attempts to contact the applicant were unsuccessful and ADIS records on the applicant's travel did not clearly demonstrate the applicant had returned from the U.S. Post did not classify these individuals as overstays because it cannot be reasonably assumed that they are now living in the US; it is equally likely they had not returned their I-94 cards for ADIS input and were no longer using the phone number recorded in NIV. d. Overstays: This category consists of 13 overstays for Haitian recipients. There were 8 overstays for all other TCN recipients. NASSAU 00000449 002 OF 002 Applicants that fall under this category include those whose relatives confirmed the visa holder is now living in the United States, those who moved from the address they provided at the time of visa issuance and left no forwarding address, and those for whom the phone numbers provided at the time of visa issuance were disconnected. Post used ADIS data checks, to determine that the applicants were indeed overstays in the United States. ¶6. Results: Post determined that 2.19% of all Haitians and 2.55% of all other TCNS overstayed in the United States after entering on the B visa issued to them. General results are listed below: Nationality Total # Confirmed ReturnNever TraveledInconclusive/ Possible OverstayOverstaysHaitians