SOMALIA - MOGADISHU TENSE BUT CALM

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000955

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER EAID SO

SUBJECT: SOMALIA - MOGADISHU TENSE BUT CALM


1. Summary: Mogadishu remained calm on May 12 after continued
fighting between Islamic extremists and the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) on May 11. TFG officials tell us they retook some
lost ground in two counterattacks late on May 11, but are still
facing a considerable challenge from al-Shabaab and Hisbul Islami
forces arrayed against them. Hundreds have been displaced by the
fighting. The death toll has risen to over 70 killed and hundreds
wounded. TFG officials tell us they are optimistic they can prevail
in the expected clashes that lie ahead. End Summary


2. After a brief lull overnight May 10, clashes between
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces and their allies, and
Islamist extremists resumed on the afternoon of May 11. Six more
Somalis were killed and 16 wounded in the May 11 fighting, bringing
the total since May 9 to over 70 killed and hundreds wounded. A
tenuous calm prevailed May 12, but TFG officials expected more
fighting in the days ahead.


3. On May 12 National Security Minister Omar Hashi informed us that
on May 11 government forces successfully re-occupied Ex-Control
Afgoye -- a key intersection in the Deyninle district -- and the
Fagah neighborhood in lower Yaqshid district, which the TFG had lost
in earlier fighting. Defense Minister Mohamed Abdi Mohamed "Ghandi"
said that during yesterday's clashes extremist groups launched
mortar attacks toward Villa Somalia, the presidential compound.
Although none hit inside the compound, one round struck an adjacent
military camp, wounding three TFG soldiers. Minister Ghandi said
the TFG was not responding to the Islamist's ineffectual mortar
barrages to avoid contributing to civilian casualties. He lamented
the civilian casualties thus far, and accused extremists of
shielding themselves with civilians.


4. Minister Ghandi, a former Alliance for the Re-Liberation of
Somalia member, was disappointed with the performance of Union of
Islamic Courts troops, some of whom defected from the TFG early in
the fighting. He praised the previous administration's remaining
Ethiopian- and newly-arrived Ugandan-trained troops as capable and
disciplined. The Uganda-trained force was charged with guarding the
neighborhood around Villa Somalia.


5. Our contacts report hundreds, perhaps thousands of civilians
have fled the fighting, especially in the heavily affected
Wardhigley and Yaqshid districts. Media reports of 17,000 are
likely inflated. Many of the displaced had recently returned to
their homes since the formation of the new government, Minister
Hashi told us.


6. Minister Ghandi told us President Sharif has been leading
meetings with security chiefs, clan elders and religious leaders in
an effort to resolve the conflict. Ghandi said Sharif and others
were optimistic, but recognized the serious challenge facing them.



7. A weeklong Somali Islamic scholar's conference concluded on May
11 in Mogadishu with a six point communique. While condemning
renewed violence in Mogadishu, the scholars declared the TFG an
"Islamic" government and called on both sides to cease fire. The
Puntland government also called for an end to hostilities, terming
Mogadishu "the capital of Somalia." The Puntland administration
called for broad-based consultation with and by all stakeholders to
study and resolve the crisis.


8. At a press conference May 12 in Mogadishu, Hussien Fidow, an
al-Shabaab spokesman denied President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's
statement that the TFG is protecting civilians. Fidow said TFG is
protecting Uganda and Burundi forces. Fidow also dismissed the
council of Islamic Scholars as a conference of "TFG apologists." In
yet another admission of the presence of foreign jihadist elements
with al-Shabaab, Fidow it was irrelevant that the "selfless
mujahidin brothers" who sacrificed their life to aid Somalis were
"foreigners". "They are our Mujahidin brothers" said Fidow.

RANNEBERGER