Migingo Island -- The View from Kenya

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000930

DEPT FOR AF/E Driano

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PREL EFIS ASEC UG KE
SUBJECT: Migingo Island -- The View from Kenya

REF: A) International Boundary Study No. 139, August 27, 1973,
Office of the Geographer, INR


1. Summary: The current dispute over Migingo Island in Lake Victoria
sparked in 2006 when Ugandan customs officers began to collect
levies from Kenyan fishermen fishing in waters around the disputed
island. Despite the competing claims to ownership and the generally
inflammatory media hype, the Kenyan and Ugandan governments have
both publicly declared that the issue will be resolved peacefully.
However, the dispute has elevated the political drama within the
GOK, as sections of the Grand Coalition government have used the
issue to distract the public from more pressing concerns. The
dispute also poses something of a political embarrassment to PM
Raila Odinga, highlighting his powerlessness to resolve the issue
despite its location in his ethnic Luo community. An expensive and
unnecessary GOK survey is not likely to resolve what is ultimately a
multi-faceted political dispute. End summary.

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Location and Significance
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2. The island's significance lies in its proximity to one of Lake
Victoria's most fertile fishing areas. It is a rocky island in Lake
Victoria located near the confluence of the Ugandan, Kenyan, and
Tanzanian borders. Less than two acres in size, the island is
covered by small row houses made of rusty corrugated tin that are
the home to roughly 500-700 inhabitants at any given time. The
population is approximately 70 percent Kenyan, 20 percent Ugandan,
and 10 percent Tanzanian, Congolese and Rwandese. In addition to
fishing, the inhabitants survive on small trading activities related
to foodstuffs, petroleum products, and other basic commodities.


3. The island is 2.5 km due east of the north/south water border
dividing Kenya and Uganda and approximately 10km off Kenya's
Sori-Bay in Karungu Division, Migori District. The nearest Ugandan
land is approximately 180 km away. Kenya's close proximity to the
island has long implied ownership. Since 1912 the island has been
regarded as Kenyan territory, which was confirmed by the British
1926 demarcation of the Kenya-Uganda border. The 1973 INR Office of
the Geographer's International Boundary Study (Ref A) on the
Kenya-Uganda Border has been cited in the press to underscore
Kenya's claim.

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The Current Dispute
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4. The current dispute started in 2006 when Ugandan authorities
began demanding payment of levies from Kenyan fishermen with the
rate for Kenyan fishermen five times that charged to Ugandans. With
declining stocks of fish and a depressed industry local inhabitants
were already on edge. When Kenyans refused to pay fishing fees of
Uganda Shs 50,000 (USD 25) and an annual boat licensing fee of Shs
150,000 (USD 75) the Uganda authorities expelled 400 fishermen from
the island. In addition, the Ugandan Fisheries Minister Fred Mukisa
ordered the inhabitants of the island to elect local council leaders
and a Migingo Beach Management Unit, which many Kenyan inhabitants
perceived as acquiescing to Ugandan Sovereignty. Lastly, the
Ugandan authorities began to voice concerns about the loss of
revenue due to fish sold to Kenya fish processors.


5. Tensions flared again in February 2009 when the Kenyan
Administration Police arrived on the island and replaced the Ugandan
flag with a Kenyan flag. Ugandan authorities arrested the Kenyan
Police, who were released only after intervention by Kenyan
President Kibaki. Kibaki and Ugandan President Museveni have a
longstanding and close political relationship, and both governments
have said publicly the dispute will be resolved peacefully.
However, Kibaki otherwise has not spoken out on the issue.
Meanwhile, the issue has gained significant press coverage, often
sensationalist, with the media calling for the government to declare
the island in their possession and defend it with armed force, if
necessary. There is some speculation that Kibaki's silence on the
issue is designed to embarrass Prime Minister Odinga, showing him to
be powerless to resolve the dispute which negatively affects his
ethnic Luo community.

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Relations with Uganda
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5. The Migingo island dispute has threatened relations between the
two traditional trade partners. Anti-Ugandan sentiment has become
more widespread in Kenya, especially in the Western districts and in
a Luo-dominated Nairobi slum. A section of the Kenya-Uganda
railway, one of Uganda's major commercial arteries, was ripped up in
Nairobi's Kibera slum by angry Kenyans who were demanding the return
of Migingo. Kibera happens to be in the Prime Minister's
parliamentary district, and is home to many ethnic Luo from western
Kenya. Vehicles in Kenya bound for Uganda have also been held up by

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Kenyan civilians in western Kenya. The dispute has provided an
outlet for many Luo who believe that Museveni sought to influence
the outcome of the 2007 presidential elections in Kenya by sending
an early congratulatory message to Kibaki and allegedly dispatching
Ugandan soldiers to western Kenya to help put down dissent over the
election results.

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A New Survey
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6. On March 16, the two governments jointly announced a $1.75
million survey to be completed in two months. Ugandan Internal
Affairs Minister Kirunda Kivejinja said, "We're just struggling with
old colonial boundaries." The next day, the British High Commission
in Kenya offered both sides access to the British government's
historical records on border demarcation. Kibaki, during the State
Opening of Parliament on April 21, reiterated that "diplomacy will
be our first line of response" and he called on Kenyans to be
patient.

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Comment
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7. The dispute has elevated the political drama in the Kenyan
government, and brought into focus the long-simmering rivalry
between PM Odinga and Ugandan President Museveni. Odinga has called
strongly for his government to defend its territory, but the
coalition government has been lax to act. Many see this as part of
Kibaki's PNU party attempting to make Odinga's ODM party look
feeble. Kibaki's refusal to act on Odinga's call to defend the
nation is both political and practical: Kibaki sees Museveni as a
close ally and he has nothing to gain at this point by forcefully
attempting to assert Kenyan sovereignty. We anticipate that at the
conclusion of the two-month survey the results will not be mutually
agreeable to all parties, and the issue will remain awaiting a
political resolution. In the meantime, the dispute has proven to be
an excellent distraction as the nation grapples with severe drought
and food shortages, high unemployment and inflation, and growing
public frustration with the coalition government's inability to
improve conditions and its dithering over implementation of
meaningful reforms.

RANNEBERGER