SOMALIA - AWEYS TELLS HIS CLAN HE WILL FIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 000863 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND ACTING A/S CARTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PTER SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - AWEYS TELLS HIS CLAN HE WILL FIGHT AMISOM, TFG Classified By: Ambassador John Yates for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) contacts shared their reporting of opposition leader Hassan Dahir Aweys' activities in Mogadishu since he arrived on April 23 (reftel). AMISOM's political analysts in Mogadishu say that Aweys has little support from his Ayr clan's elders and opinion-makers, but that he will cast his lot with other violent extremist groups and fight AMISOM and the government from Somalia. TFG president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed told AMISOM he would defeat Aweys either politically or militarily. ¶2. (C) Many of Aweys former allies are standing against him, and in favor of the government, AMISOM reports. Aweys' former defense minister Yusuf Inda Ade reportedly told Aweys he was backing the government. Ayr elders openly questioned what Aweys had done to help the Somali people during his two years in exile. They told him with Ethiopia gone there was no need for further violence. Ayr community leaders pledged to prevent Aweys and extremist groups to launch attacks from their neighborhoods in the Wardhigley district. Another pro-government Ayr militia commander named Gobale, who controlled Mogadishu stadium, reportedly denied Aweys permission to use the stadium for his April 24 rally. Elders held Gobale up as a positive example for Aweys. ¶3. (C) Aweys supposedly indicated he would leverage his Eritrean ties, his reportedly 300-strong personal militia, and his relations with Hizbul Islamia, Hassan al Turki's Ras Kamboni group, al Shabaab and others to fight the "American-backed" AMISOM and government forces. Aweys was reportedly organizing his force in the "Suga Holaha" area of Huriwa district. AMISOM reported there are rumors Aweys soon will travel to the Juba region to meet with al Turki. ¶4. (U) Comment: Although we cannot independently corroborate this information, much of it is consistent with what we are hearing elsewhere. End Comment. RANNEBERGER