Parliament Speaker's Ruling Averts Crisis

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000848 SIPDIS AF/E for SDriano FROM THE AMBASSADOR E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE SUBJECT: Parliament Speaker's Ruling Averts Crisis REF: (A) Nairobi 823 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MICHAEL E. RANNEBERGER REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Speaker of Parliament's solomonic ruling on April 28 has averted a crisis within the coalition government. The ruling potentially paves the way for Parliament to focus on implementation of the reform agenda. However, the continuing differences between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga will likely color deliberations in Parliament. Kofi Annan's message to both principals was important in persuading them to accept the ruling. Annan will be in Kenya May 17-21 to help them sort out coalition differences and to push for implementation of the reform agenda. The Ambassador joined the UK and German ambassadors in holding a press conference on April 29 to welcome and support the Speaker's ruling. End summary. ¶2. (C) A solomonic ruling by Speaker of Parliament Marende on April 28 has averted a crisis within the coalition government. Reftel reported that the question of who would become leader of government business in Parliament and chair of the House Business Committee triggered the crisis. Marende's 61 minute ruling deftly navigated legal and constitutional issues, and produced what the Kenyan people are widely hailing as a wise, impartial result. He appeared bold and authoritative, declaring that "the extraordinary situation in which the country is in calls for extraordinary measures." ¶3. (C) Noting that he has separate letters from President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga designating different leaders of government business, Marende declined to determine who is leader of government business, since that is the prerogative of the executive. Very importantly, Marende then made clear his view that there is only "one indivisible government," and therefore the executive must speak with one voice. Marende was particularly eloquent and forceful in declaring that the constitution and National Accord which established the coalition are one and the same (since the National Accord has been incorporated into the constitution). He stressed the need for the National Accord to be fully respected, including the provisions for power-sharing. Therefore, Marende said, he would await a consensus designation from the executive regarding who is leader of government business. ¶4. (C) In the meantime, Marende noted that the Parliament must continue to function because national interests are paramount and the reform agenda must move forward. This required that the House Business Committee (HBC) be formed to allow Parliament to agree on its agenda to hold further sessions. However, Odinga and Vice President Musyoka each claimed to be the government's nominee to be chair of the HBC. Marende ruled that the Speaker, who is an ex officio member of the HBC, would serve as a non-voting chair of the HBC until the government submitted a consensus nominee to serve as chair. In making this ruling, Marende noted that the leader of government business and leader of Parliament's business committee need not be the same person. ¶5. (C) In a positive development, the chief whip of Kibaki's Party of National Unity party then rose to propose a motion reconstituting the membership of the business committee. The chief whip stated that the proposed new list had been worked out with Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement. The motion was unanimously passed. The new business committee contains 21 members: 11 ODM (reflecting its majority in Parliament) and 10 PNU. Almost all the key political players are now on the committee, including Odinga, Vice President Musyoka, most of the ODM and PNU leadership, and former Minister of Justice Karua. ¶6. (C) The only discordant note was Musyoka's threat that PNU would challenge the ruling in the Constitutional Court. Musyoka, whose position in the political pecking order is diminished by Marende's ruling, is now widely perceived as a spoiler, and there is no indication that the PNU will challenge the ruling. ¶7. (C) Marende's decisive ruling and forceful assertion that Parliament now needs to proceed with implementation of the reform agenda potentially opens the way for progress. Meanwhile, Kibaki and Odinga will probably wrangle for some time before they reach any agreement regarding the positions of leader of government business and chair of the business committee. As a result of Marende's ruling, Parliament now takes center stage as an institution which could potentially help move the reform process forward, but the differences within the coalition will continue to color its deliberations and mitigate against real progress. ¶8. (C) We will maintain pressure on Kibaki and Odinga to sort out their differences, and to focus on implementation of the reform agenda. Growing pressure coming from civil society, the private sector, religious groups, and the media, coupled with international NAIROBI 00000848 002 OF 002 encouragement and pressure, will help move them forward. The media is reporting an overwhelmingly favorable reaction to the Speaker's ruling. Thanks to a USAID-sponsored program, Parliament's proceedings are now broadcast live, so the entire nation watched the drama. The increased transparency of proceedings will undoubtedly help lead to parliamentarians being held more accountable by their constituents, who want to see the reform process move forward. ¶9. (C) Once again, Kofi Annan's weighing in with Kibaki and Odinga before the Speaker's ruling was important to persuade both sides to accept it. Annan told me in confidence that he will be in Kenya from May 17 to 21 to help Kibaki and Odinga work out coalition differences, and to push for implementation of the reform agenda. ¶10. (C) The Ambassador joined the German and UK ambassadors April 29 at a press conference to welcome the ruling and to make clear that the international community stands behind the Speaker's position. They emphasized the need for both sides to respect the ruling (and the separation of powers) and to move beyond personal politics to focus on the reform agenda. RANNEBERGER