Somalia - Central Region Drought Decimating Livelihoods

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000718

SIPDIS
AIDAC

USAID/DCHA FOR EKVITASHVILI
DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY, KCHANNELL,
DCHA/FFP FOR JBORNS, JDWORKEN, PMOHAN
AFR/EA FOR CTHOMPSON, JCICCARONE
STATE FOR AF/E AND PRM
USUN FOR DMERCADO
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
USMISSION UN ROME FOR HSPANOS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT: Somalia - Central Region Drought Decimating Livelihoods

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1. A briefing on April 2, by the United Nation's Food Security
Analysis Unit (FSAU) to donors highlighted the severity of the
ongoing drought in Somalia's Central Regions (Mudug and Galgaduud
extending into Hiran). Based on an analysis of historical indictors,
FSAU states that this drought is comparable if not worse than the
last major drought in this area (1991-92),following four
consecutive poor harvests beginning in late 2007.


2. These regions are primarily rural and livelihoods are
livestock-based. Current livestock conditions are poor due to
massive deaths and high off-take. Sheep and goat herd sizes are
down 30 percent from FSAU baseline rates and projected to be 50-60
percent below baseline by June 2009. Cattle are hit harder with
rates having already hit 50 percent below baseline in December 2008.
FSAU describes the impact as decimating to these pastoralists'
livelihoods. FSAU labels over 400,000 persons in these regions as
in "humanitarian emergency" or "acute food and livelihood crisis"
requiring assistance.


3. The water situation, and by extension sanitation and hygiene, is
desperate. In March, all the open water wells and communal dams
were entirely dry. Shallow wells are muddy and silted and not fit
for human consumption. Boreholes are the primary source of water
which provides water to hundreds of thousands of people via water
trucking. Reportedly the boreholes are also in poor condition
through over-utilization and lack of money to fuel the pumps. The
cost of a drum of water has increased by 150 percent in parts of
Galgaduud compared to this period last year. UNICEF reported their
staff has never seen a water crisis this bad in the Central Region.


4. Compounding the situation is the hyperinflation experienced over
the last year in Somalia increasing food prices by up to 700
percent. Although prices have decreased in 2009, they remain at
historically high levels far above long term averages making food
access a problem; the price of livestock has declined precipitously
due to the drought further impacting terms of trade.


5. FSAU analysis shows most poor Somalis depending on loans, gifts,
and food aid for basic needs but report some shops closing as debts
to them are not being repaid. Remittances are also declining
although FSAU did not have specific data to indicate by how much.


6. The nutrition situation in Central Region is worsening as well.
Milk is a particularly important source of nutrition for young
children. FSAU estimates there are 10,000 severely malnourished
children in this area with only about 1,500 in treatment or less
than 20 percent coverage. The last nutrition surveys in this area
were in November 2008 (showing moderate malnutrition between 18 -20
percent exceeding the 15 percent emergency threshold) with the next
surveys planned for April 2009.



7. The forecast for the coming (Gu) rainy season between April -
June, indicates a higher than normal probability of below normal
rainfall. Some light showers have started in parts of Somalia which
could indicate an early beginning - as well as early end - which
would be harmful for crop production and extend the subsequent dry
season.


8. By most indicators, Somalia's Central Regions are experiencing a
drought of historic proportions. These areas also experienced a
large influx of IDPs from Mogadishu (primarily due to clan
affiliations) and the recent return of a significant number of these
to Mogadishu can be explained by the poor humanitarian conditions in
Central Regions more so than improvements in security in Mogadishu.
As these areas have traditionally been less food insecure than
regions in the south, fewer implementing partners have a presence to
mount a response hampering USAID's and other donor efforts. Ongoing
insecurity also hampers the ability of agencies to operate. USAID's
Office of Food for Peace (FFP) is the largest food aid donor into
Somalia via the World Food Program (WFP) and they report a robust
food pipeline through August 2009. USAID's Office of Foreign
Disaster Assistance (OFDA) has prioritized Central Somalia for
water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH),nutrition, health, and

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livelihood sector funding. USAID will continue to monitor
humanitarian conditions in the region and provide ongoing support to
implementing partners.

RANNEBERGER