COALITION RETREAT HIGHLIGHTS STALLED REFORM PROCESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000710

DEPT FOR AF/E Driano

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: COALITION RETREAT HIGHLIGHTS STALLED REFORM PROCESS


1. Summary. President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga held an
off-site "retreat" to take stock of the coalition government and to
discuss the way forward on the reform process. The retreat failed
to map out the way forward, instead highlighting differences of
approach. The calling of the retreat reveals that the coalition
government is feeling the heat from growing domestic and
international pressure to implement the reform agenda. The lack of
progress from the retreat reflects serious differences within the
coalition government, but perhaps more over power-sharing than over
any real desire to proceed with fundamental reforms. End summary.


2. President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga summoned twelve
ministers to an off-site retreat on April 4. Some of the ministers
were the key negotiators the two sides used during the crisis, and
all are part of the recently formed coalition government management
committee to help harmonize the coalition approach to power-sharing
and the reform process. Some of those participating included
Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula,
Security Minister George Saitoti, and Vice President Kalonzo
Musyoka, on Kibaki's side, while those on Odinga's side included
Minister of Lands James Orengo, Minister of Water Charity Ngilu,
Minister of Northern and Semi-Arid Lands Mohammed Elmi, and Minister
of Agriculture William Ruto.


3. The retreat was not productive, and in fact ended in mutual
recrimination. There was no agreed common agenda for the meeting,
so both sides came with different agendas and expectations. During
the course of the discussions at the retreat, both Kibaki and Odinga
walked out at different points, later to return to the talks.
Participants described the discussions as tense and at times almost
rowdy. Odinga saw the agenda as: the decision-making process
within the coalition government; power-sharing issues (including
civil service appointments, especially ambassadors and within the
security apparatus); the reform process; and the issue of
extra-judicial killings. Kibaki apparently saw the retreat as more
of a general "bonding session" focusing on the dynamics of the
coalition government and efforts to get legislation passed to
authorize the Special Tribunal to hold accountable those involved in
post-election violence.


4. Following the retreat President Kibaki issued a statement that
the discussions "helped members to see and hear different opinions.
The consultations will continue in future meetings to foster
understanding. As we do so, we will fast-track reforms, the
constitutional review, and the development agenda." He did not
discuss the areas of difference, and neither he nor Odinga
specifically mentioned corruption as an issue. Odinga said that
"the meeting simply did not take off. Unfortunately, we were unable
to agree on anything and, therefore, the meeting collapsed." Odinga
went on to say: "The time has come for the coalition to agree on
some code of conduct, some basic rules that will ensure harmony in
government to enable us to concentrate on the business of delivering
the reforms contained in agenda one, two, three and four. We are
concerned that the coalition formed to steer the country out of
crisis has today become a source of crisis in itself. Where its
leaders were once seen as people who put aside personal ambitions to
save the nation, they are increasingly seen today as people who do
not mind hurting the nation."


5. Odinga and his ODM team were particularly interested in using the
meeting to focus on what they view as inequitable power-sharing.
They complain that the President makes decisions without proper
consultations, for example with respect to the hiring and firing of
public officials. Just days before the retreat, Odinga called for
the removal of the Chief Justice and the Police Commissioner. The
President subsequently said the Chief Justice has his confidence;
the President then appointed 7 new justices in a high profile
ceremony with the Chief Justice. Another issue related to
appointments was the controversial reappointment of the 71 year old
head of the Kenya Airports Authority (who is a close personal friend
of Kibaki, but widely viewed as both corrupt and inefficient).
Odinga wanted to use the retreat to discuss the "credibility crisis"
facing the coalition government and to confer on the need for a more
coherent communications strategy.


6. Interestingly, Agriculture Minister William Ruto took a high
profile in the media defending the ODM position with respect to the
retreat. Reports have been rife of divisions between Odinga and
Ruto - and of quiet discussions between Ruto, Kibaki, and Uhuru
Kenyatta with respect to the possibly of forging an alliance for the
2012 general elections. Whether or not Ruto plans to break ranks
eventually with Odinga, he had little choice at this point other
than to show solidarity with ODM.


7. The retreat came at a time when there is growing domestic and
international pressure on the coalition government to proceed with
implementation of the reform agenda. It is worth noting that the
meeting on Kenya sponsored by Kofi Annan - which focused a spotlight
on lack of progress on reforms -- occurred just days before the
retreat. It seems clear that the coalition government, and Kibaki
and Odinga particularly, are feeling this pressure. At the same

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time, there is no indication that Kibaki saw the meeting as focusing
on fundamental reform issues (including corruption),except for the
specific issue of how to get the legislation passed to set up the
Special Tribunal. Odinga, on the other hand, seems focused mainly
on the workings of the coalition government, feeling correctly that
his power as Prime Minister is ill-defined and limited.


8. It remains to be seen whether Odinga is in fact committed to
pushing ahead with fundamental reforms should the power-sharing
issues be sorted out. We are getting some indications that Odinga
may finally be waking up to the realization that he can only succeed
politically by embracing the reform agenda and insisting on bold
action. If so, then the "retreat" may have provided a useful
reality check and, potentially, a point of departure toward a more
forthright focus on the reform process. However, since the retreat,
Odinga has been holding public meetings focused on criticizing
Kibaki, rather than on a constructive approach to implementation of
the reform agenda.


9. While the retreat highlighted differences and tensions within the
coalition government, both sides in their public comments are
emphasizing that the coalition government is in no danger. Both
sides expressed strong commitment to the coalition government as the
only viable mechanism to govern the country.

RANNEBERGER