COALITION RETREAT HIGHLIGHTS STALLED REFORM PROCESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000710 DEPT FOR AF/E Driano SIPDIS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KE SUBJECT: COALITION RETREAT HIGHLIGHTS STALLED REFORM PROCESS ¶1. Summary. President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga held an off-site "retreat" to take stock of the coalition government and to discuss the way forward on the reform process. The retreat failed to map out the way forward, instead highlighting differences of approach. The calling of the retreat reveals that the coalition government is feeling the heat from growing domestic and international pressure to implement the reform agenda. The lack of progress from the retreat reflects serious differences within the coalition government, but perhaps more over power-sharing than over any real desire to proceed with fundamental reforms. End summary. ¶2. President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga summoned twelve ministers to an off-site retreat on April 4. Some of the ministers were the key negotiators the two sides used during the crisis, and all are part of the recently formed coalition government management committee to help harmonize the coalition approach to power-sharing and the reform process. Some of those participating included Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula, Security Minister George Saitoti, and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, on Kibaki's side, while those on Odinga's side included Minister of Lands James Orengo, Minister of Water Charity Ngilu, Minister of Northern and Semi-Arid Lands Mohammed Elmi, and Minister of Agriculture William Ruto. ¶3. The retreat was not productive, and in fact ended in mutual recrimination. There was no agreed common agenda for the meeting, so both sides came with different agendas and expectations. During the course of the discussions at the retreat, both Kibaki and Odinga walked out at different points, later to return to the talks. Participants described the discussions as tense and at times almost rowdy. Odinga saw the agenda as: the decision-making process within the coalition government; power-sharing issues (including civil service appointments, especially ambassadors and within the security apparatus); the reform process; and the issue of extra-judicial killings. Kibaki apparently saw the retreat as more of a general "bonding session" focusing on the dynamics of the coalition government and efforts to get legislation passed to authorize the Special Tribunal to hold accountable those involved in post-election violence. ¶4. Following the retreat President Kibaki issued a statement that the discussions "helped members to see and hear different opinions. The consultations will continue in future meetings to foster understanding. As we do so, we will fast-track reforms, the constitutional review, and the development agenda." He did not discuss the areas of difference, and neither he nor Odinga specifically mentioned corruption as an issue. Odinga said that "the meeting simply did not take off. Unfortunately, we were unable to agree on anything and, therefore, the meeting collapsed." Odinga went on to say: "The time has come for the coalition to agree on some code of conduct, some basic rules that will ensure harmony in government to enable us to concentrate on the business of delivering the reforms contained in agenda one, two, three and four. We are concerned that the coalition formed to steer the country out of crisis has today become a source of crisis in itself. Where its leaders were once seen as people who put aside personal ambitions to save the nation, they are increasingly seen today as people who do not mind hurting the nation." ¶5. Odinga and his ODM team were particularly interested in using the meeting to focus on what they view as inequitable power-sharing. They complain that the President makes decisions without proper consultations, for example with respect to the hiring and firing of public officials. Just days before the retreat, Odinga called for the removal of the Chief Justice and the Police Commissioner. The President subsequently said the Chief Justice has his confidence; the President then appointed 7 new justices in a high profile ceremony with the Chief Justice. Another issue related to appointments was the controversial reappointment of the 71 year old head of the Kenya Airports Authority (who is a close personal friend of Kibaki, but widely viewed as both corrupt and inefficient). Odinga wanted to use the retreat to discuss the "credibility crisis" facing the coalition government and to confer on the need for a more coherent communications strategy. ¶6. Interestingly, Agriculture Minister William Ruto took a high profile in the media defending the ODM position with respect to the retreat. Reports have been rife of divisions between Odinga and Ruto - and of quiet discussions between Ruto, Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta with respect to the possibly of forging an alliance for the 2012 general elections. Whether or not Ruto plans to break ranks eventually with Odinga, he had little choice at this point other than to show solidarity with ODM. ¶7. The retreat came at a time when there is growing domestic and international pressure on the coalition government to proceed with implementation of the reform agenda. It is worth noting that the meeting on Kenya sponsored by Kofi Annan - which focused a spotlight on lack of progress on reforms -- occurred just days before the retreat. It seems clear that the coalition government, and Kibaki and Odinga particularly, are feeling this pressure. At the same NAIROBI 00000710 002 OF 002 time, there is no indication that Kibaki saw the meeting as focusing on fundamental reform issues (including corruption),except for the specific issue of how to get the legislation passed to set up the Special Tribunal. Odinga, on the other hand, seems focused mainly on the workings of the coalition government, feeling correctly that his power as Prime Minister is ill-defined and limited. ¶8. It remains to be seen whether Odinga is in fact committed to pushing ahead with fundamental reforms should the power-sharing issues be sorted out. We are getting some indications that Odinga may finally be waking up to the realization that he can only succeed politically by embracing the reform agenda and insisting on bold action. If so, then the "retreat" may have provided a useful reality check and, potentially, a point of departure toward a more forthright focus on the reform process. However, since the retreat, Odinga has been holding public meetings focused on criticizing Kibaki, rather than on a constructive approach to implementation of the reform agenda. ¶9. While the retreat highlighted differences and tensions within the coalition government, both sides in their public comments are emphasizing that the coalition government is in no danger. Both sides expressed strong commitment to the coalition government as the only viable mechanism to govern the country. RANNEBERGER