EASBRIG UPDATES ITS FRIENDS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000043 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MARR MASS PREL KE XW SUBJECT: EASBRIG UPDATES ITS FRIENDS REF: NAIROBI 1365 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) On November 25, the East African Standby Brigade (EASBRIG) used the occasion of its first-ever Command Post Exercise (CPX) to bring donors together for an update on EASBRIG's progress and to request further support. While the meeting's agenda focused on capacity building for the still-nascent organization's core activities -- such as the 2009 Field Training Exercise (FTX) -- internal squabbles over influence within the organization, questions over the EASBRIG's political direction, and maritime security (not currently an EASBRIG focus) were all discussed at length. EASBRIG's leadership promised to provide a formal request to donors for FTX support soon. The support request will include an update on the contributions from EASBRIG member states, which will be enlightening as most member states are in serious arrears. It appears that any U.S. support for EASBRIG will necessarily remain bilateral for the forseeable future, given the organization's lack of progress toward becoming a more formalized organization that could be recognized by a Presidential Determination. The next Friends of EASBRIG meeting will likely occur in February 2009. End Summary. -------------- EASBRIG's First CPX -------------- ¶2. (U) EASBRIG's first-ever Command Post Exercise (CPX) served as the backdrop for the November 25 "Friends of EASBRIG" meeting in Nairobi. Exercise "Amani" (Kiswahili for "peace") took place November 24-28 with 78 participants from 12 of EASBRIG's 13 member countries (Eritrea did not send any participants. Other EASBRIG members include Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda). Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa also sent 10 observers to the event. In all, approximately 145 observers, VIPs, and other visitors attended some part of the CPX. The exercise was based on a fictional African Union request for EASBRIG intervention in response to insecurity in a failing, fictional African state. The exercise incorporated military, police, and civilian components and tested EASBRIG's command and control mechanisms and the capability of its deployable brigade headquarters. The CPX also set the stage for a follow-on Field Training Exercise (FTX),which will include more troops and require heavy logistics support, at the end of 2009. An after-action analysis of the exercise is scheduled for 19-21 January 2009. ¶3. (U) "Friends" present at the meeting included Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Sweden, UK, and the United States. "Friends" with nameplates but not in attendance included China, Finland, and Spain. -------------- Progress Updates, Passing the Hat -------------- ¶4. (U) EASBRIG Coordinating Mechanism (EASBRICOM) Director Simon Mulongo reported steady progress toward achieving most of its eight strategic objectives (reftel). To wit: the NAIROBI 00000043 002 OF 004 Harmonized Policy Framework should be finalized at the next meeting of the Council of Ministers (scheduled for January 2009); the Government of the Netherlands is providing technical assistance in command, control, and communications; the Governments of Norway, Japan and the United Nations Development Program are providing assistance to the police and civilian elements of EASBRIG; and Germany is providing assistance with building EASBRIG's administrative and financial management capacity. ¶5. (U) EASBRIG still needs help in building its Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC),Mulongo said. While the Kenyan Rapid Deployment force is nearly complete, they are the only one that is. Mulongo identified Uganda, Rwanda, and Ethiopia as next on the priority list. (Note: The UK is already supporting Uganda's efforts and Mulongo, a Ugandan, has asked us in the past to do the same. End Note.) The development of EASBRIG's logistics base has also hit a snag, Mulongo said, because of a disagreement with Ethiopia as to how EASBRIG's logistics support system will work. Instead of housing EASBRIG's logistics base in Addis Ababa, as originally envisioned, a study has recommended that the logistics base should be deconcentrated into three zones (north, central, and south) and only store minimal equipment -- most of it would be outsourced. ¶6. (U) EASBRIG's number one priority for 2009, Mulongo said, will be mounting a massive FTX that will involve the deployment of 1,500-2,000 troops and cost USD 7-8 million. The FTX will be a test of EASBRIG's logistics and financial management capacity in particular, Mulongo said. The exercise is expected to take place in two countries -- one for mounting, the other for operations -- but those countries have not yet been determined. Mulongo said that EASBRICOM will present a set of options to the Council of Ministers to decide on in January 2009. Likely options include Ethiopia and Djibouti, Uganda and Burundi, Kenya and Uganda, or Kenya alone. Mulongo promised the Friends he would present a formal request for support in the near term which would include a budget estimate and an update on the contributions from EASBRIG member states. (Note: The latter will be enlightening, as most member states are in serious arrears in their annual dues. End Note.) -------------- EASBRIG Response to Piracy? -------------- ¶7. (U) During his opening remarks for the CPX, Kenyan Minister of Foreign Affairs Moses Wetangula highlighted the dangers posed to the region's trade routes by pirates and he urged EASBRIG to include counter-piracy capacity in its operational framework. ¶8. (U) The maritime issue also arose during the Friends meeting: Mulongo proposed the addition of both maritime and air capability to the list of EASBRIG's strategic objectives. Reaction from the Friends was mixed: the UK representative said that EASBRIG needs to focus on existing priorities so that efforts are not diffused to the point where EASBRIG fails to deliver on its core mandate. Others were more open: the Nordic countries are devising a unified approach to EASBRIG and hope to capitalize on their strengths, which would include building naval and coast guard capacity. -------------- Ethiopia's Discontent NAIROBI 00000043 003 OF 004 -------------- ¶9. (U) Ethiopia expressed serious discontent with the way EASBRIG is moving forward during EASBRIG policy organ meetings held in Kigali in August. Ethiopia's complaints took up so much time during the meeting of the chiefs of defense staff, they were unable to discuss policy recommendations to the Council of Ministers -- a serious disruption EASBRIG's decisionmaking process, Mulongo said. When asked to explain the nature of dispute to the Friends, Mulongo provided a document containing what he said were a summary of Ethiopia's specific claims. ¶10. (U) The claims center on Ethiopia's perception that Kenya is trying to control EASBRIG and disempower Ethiopia within the organization. Ethiopia reportedly claimed that they had not received funding to start up the logistics base in Addis Ababa because there is an initiative to move the base to Kenya; the Kenya-based EASBRIG planning element has taken over the mandate of the Ethiopia-based EASBRIG headquarters; Kenya-based EASBRICOM has allowed foreigners (particularly the British) to overwhelm the organization with foreign advisors; and that Kenya is trying to shift the focus of EASBRIG toward the East African Community (EAC) in order to marginalize Ethiopia (which is not a member). The Ethiopians reportedly requested that Mulongo be relieved of his position, and that the UK should cease their involvement in and leadership of EASBRIG. ¶11. (U) The Chiefs of Defense Staff deliberated over Ethiopia's complaints for two days, and in the end forwarded them to the Council of Defense Ministers, who in turn asked Ethiopia to substantiate the allegations. In the meantime, Ethiopia has reportedly approached Kenya and Uganda bilaterally attempting to resolve the situation, but EASBRIG will continue with business as usual until the allegations are substantiated. Mulongo said that the Council of Ministers asked Ethiopia to respond with "hard evidence" by September 15, and Ethiopia's claims would then be considered at a subsequent meeting in Khartoum within two months. To date, the Ethiopians have yet to provide the information requested, and the Khartoum meeting has been postponed to allow more time to engage with Addis, Mulongo said. -------------- Political Direction for EASBRIG -------------- ¶12. (U) Ethiopia's complaints about perceived Kenyan dominance -- and the negative effect it has had on EASBRIG's cohesion -- point to the larger issue of political will and capacity among member countries to support EASBRIG in a way that will make it an effective regional force. EASBRIG member countries have their own security problems, and they are often at odds with one another. Sudan and Somalia are both plagued by internal conflict, and the national armies of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti have experienced armed conflict with one another. Of the 13 EASBRIG countries, only Kenya has kept up with its annual dues. Burundi and Somalia have paid no dues since 2005. EASBRICOM itself not linked to any regional organizations, such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) or the EAC. ¶13. (U) Assistant Minister of Defense, General (retired) Joseph Nkaisserry was open about EASBRIG's weaknesses: he told the Friends that EASBRIG's diversity will make it difficult to coalesce around a unified purpose, member states NAIROBI 00000043 004 OF 004 had limited funding to support the organization, and that EASBRIG member states are in conflict. That said, EASBRIG states are sensitive to outside pressure, and regional ownership of stability operations is important, Nkaisserry asserted. -------------- Prospects for Direct U.S. Support -------------- ¶14. (U) Mulongo criticized the United States for being "so strict (about recognizing EASBRIG)." "It will cause delays in support for EASBRIG. Can't you just proceed (based on the recognition of) the EASBRIG Memorandum of Understanding?" he asked. After PolOff made it clear that U.S. assistance to EASBRIG will remain bilateral for the forseeable future, Mulongo asked that bilateral assistance to EASBRIG members at least be transparent and accountable. ¶15. (SBU) Comment: There are no indications that EASBRIG is getting any closer to constituting itself as the kind of organization that could be recognized by a Presidential Determination and thereby become eligible for direct U.S. support. We will forward EASBRIG's FTX support request once we receive it and will highlight potentially productive areas for support. The next Friends meeting, tentatively scheduled for February 2009, will focus on how donors can support the exercise. ¶16. (SBU) Comment, cont: At this point, keeping our support for EASBRIG bilateral makes sense for reasons other than our own legal restrictions. End Comment. RANNEBERGER