SOMALIA - PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION UNDERWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000026

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION UNDERWAY

REF: 08 NAIROBI 2879

Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: In the wake of Somalia Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) President Yusuf's December 29 resignation
(reftel),a succession race has begun. Somalis and members of
the international community, have become engaged in the
effort to harmonize the effort to form a TFG - Alliance for
the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) unity government with the
need to meet the Transitional Federal Charter's thirty-day
deadline for naming a new president. A TFG - ARS working
group (called for in the November 25 communique from
discussions in Djibouti) began negotiations on forming a
unity government in Nairobi January 6. Going into the
negotiations, ARS members told us they would insist on equal
representation in Parliament and that they would be prepared
to adhere to the spirit, but not the letter, of the 4.5
formula for clan representation. End summary.

Many Potential Successors
--------------


2. (C) Following TFG President Yusuf's December 29
resignation (reftel),the number of Somalis rumored to be
seeking the presidency has steadily increased. (According to
the Transitional Federal Charter, the president should be
chosen by the Parliament within thirty days of the
resignation of his predecessor.) With observers assuming
that money will play an important role in winning
parliamentarians' votes, those rumored candidates with the
deepest pockets are assumed to have an advantage. Among
those with the most financial weight are former Prime
Minister Mohamed Ali Gedi, former TFG Fisheries Minister and
perennial presidential hopeful Mohamed Afrah Qanyare, onetime
Puntland presidential candidate Hassan Abshir Farah,
Transitional National Government Prime Minister Ali Khalif
Galaydh, and former Minister of Planning and International
Cooperation Abdirizak Osman Hassan Jirile. Also quietly
contending are current TFG Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein
"Nur Adde", ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Aden (assuming
a unity government is formed quickly),and ex-Ambassador to
the U.S. Yusuf Omar al-Azhari. There are, no doubt, still
other candidates of whom the Embassy is not yet aware, or who
will make their candidacies known at a later date.


3. (C) In addition to money, it is believed that the
Government of Ethiopia will play an outsized role in the
succession process. A number of candidates are known to have
recently spent several days in Addis Ababa, among them
al-Azhari and Prime Minister Hussein, and still others are
rumored to have had interviews with the GoE, or to be already
very well known to Addis Ababa. It is further rumored that
still other candidates have the backing of countries that
have been historically influential in Somalia. Jirile is
thought to be sponsored by the Italian government, with some
here alleging that is a one-time business partner of Italian
Senator Mario Raffaelli.


4. (C) The rumored candidates come from across the clan
spectrum. Some argue that a member of Yusuf's Darod clan
should be allowed to finish the former President's term. All
seem to agree that, whoever becomes President, the leadership
troika (President, Prime Minister, Speaker) should reflect
Somalia's clan balance.

Timing the Succession
and the Creation of a
Unity Government
--------------


5. (C) Concurrent with the efforts of the candidates to win
the sympathies of Somalia's Parliament, a debate is underway
about the best way to synchronize the presidential succession
race and efforts to form a unity government. The TFG - ARS
working group that was to have been formed immediately after
the signing of the November 25 Djibouti communique, formally
began its work only on January 6. The communique allotted
the working group thirty days in which to make its
recommendation on the shape of a unity government. The ten
members of the group (five TFG and five ARS representatives)
seemed confident going into the Nairobi negotiations, that
they could reach agreement on the size of the Parliament, the
selection of a new unity leadership, and the length of the
TFG's mandate well within thirty days. In their scenario, it
would then be possible to elect a new president within the
thirty-day succession deadline, whose clock began ticking
December 29.

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6. (C) At the same time, however, a group of MPs who have
been meeting in Nairobi has indicated that the any agreement
reached by the unity government working group might face
resistance from Parliament. They insist that the ARS should
not receive the same number of seats as the TFG in a unity
parliament. The parliamentary committee charged with
reviewing the Djibouti recommendations told us that the ARS
should be given no more than 100 slots total. Since a
two-thirds parliamentary majority is necessary to amend the
Transition Charter to expand the Parliament, their resistance
might scuttle the efforts of the working group.


7. (C) If the working group does not succeed in quickly
reaching agreement, a fallback solution might be to elect a
president who would hold office until a unity government
could be formed and new elections held.


8. (C) ARS working group members assure the Embassy that they
have prepared a list of new members for a unity Parliament
should negotiations proceed quickly. Unlike ARS Chairman
Sheikh Sharif, who has told us that the ARS would abide by
the 4.5 formula in selecting new parliamentarians, the ARS
delegates report that they would adhere to the spirit of the
4.5 formula in selecting MPs from all regions of Somalia, but
they would not rigorously apply the formula in making their
choices. Other ARS leaders have insisted to us that they
intend to follow the formula to ensure that all new MPs are
selected with the same criteria as the existing
parliamentarians. Any significant clan imbalance in the ARS
list could cause further problems in the unification process,
as could the impression that the ARS was retreating from its
stated commitment to 4.5.


9. (C) In a January 6 meeting with the international missions
in Nairobi, UN SRSG Ould-Abdallah seemed to suggest that one
way in which the objections of the Nairobi parliamentarians
and others who worry about excessive ARS influence could be
finessed could be to argue that not all of the current
parliamentarians are in fact loyal to the TFG, and to use
some of the additional 75 seats reserved for civil society
and the business community to dilute the impact of the
expansion.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) In our conversations, Somalia Unit has been urging
that the succession process take place in accordance with the
Charter. Ambassador Ranneberger and Special Envoy for
Somalia Yates have personally urged Speaker and acting
President Sheikh Aden "Madobe" to accomplish the succession
within the allotted thirty days. However, if forming a unity
government satisfactory to a majority of MPs and the
selection of a President can be done in a period exceeding
thirty days, it appears that concerned Somalis and the
international community would be prepared to ignore the
letter of the Charter and focus on its spirit.
RANNEBERGER