Annan Visits to Maintain Pressure on Reform Agenda

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002483

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/14
TAGS: PREL KE PGOV
SUBJECT: Annan Visits to Maintain Pressure on Reform Agenda

CLASSIFIED BY: Rachel Meyers, Deputy Political Counselor, State, POL;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

FOR A/S CARSON AND NSC SENIOR DIRECTOR GAVIN FROM THE AMBASSADOR




1. Summary: Kofi Annan's December 2-8 visit usefully
maintained pressure, publicly and privately, for implementation of
the reform agenda. He is remaining engaged, and plans to return to
Kenya next March. He sees the United States as his key partner in
pressing on the reforms, and I am continuing to coordinate closely
with him. End summary.




2. In his capacity as head of the African Eminent Persons
Group established by the African Union to shepherd the reform
process, Kofi Annan returned to Kenya December 2-8 to push for
implementation of the reform agenda. (Part of his visit was spent
chairing a meeting of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in
Africa.) Graca Machel, another of the eminent personalities,
accompanied Annan. Demonstrating the importance he attaches to
coordination with the U.S., Annan met privately with me at the
outset of his visit. I briefed him on U.S. efforts to press for
implementation of the reform agenda. Annan urged that we maintain
pressure on the coalition government. "We need to concentrate
pressure on the Kenyan leaders," he stated. Annan believes that
rapid International Criminal Court action against perpetrators of
post-election violence is crucial as an element of pressure. He is
in close touch with ICC Prosecutor Ocampo and is hopeful there will
be indictments on at least 2-3 persons before mid-2010.




3. During his visit Annan met with the President, Prime
Minister, the Speaker of Parliament, the parliamentary reform
caucus (at our suggestion),and with civil society, the media,
religious groups, and private sector. In his debrief for the
diplomatic corps, Annan said that his message was essentially the
same with all: some significant progress has been made, but much
more needs to be accomplished, and time is running out. Annan
welcomed publication of the draft constitution, but said he
understands the constitutional revision process will fail unless
the President and Prime Minister come together to resolve
contentious issues, most critically the structure of executive
power. He noted the government's commitment to police reform, but
said that not much has yet happened. Annan and Machel both called
attention to the need to encourage civil society, religious groups,
the media, and the private sector to work more cohesively to press
for implementation of reforms. Annan and Machel said that the
diplomatic community should use "carrots and sticks" to push the
reform process. "Tough love" is needed, they stressed. Annan also
made clear the importance he attaches to rapid action by the ICC,
which he described as "key to the broader effort to push for
accountability and reform." He warned that those opposed to reform
and ICC action are working to form coalitions to frustrate action.
"We must thwart this," he said.




4. During a closing press conference, Annan made clear his
concerns. He welcomed the progress which has been made
(particularly citing the draft constitution),but said that much
more must be achieved. He emphasized that the reform agenda must be
fully implemented "before the end of 2010" and that failure to do
so would "cast a long shadow for the country." "The reforms are
moving too slowly," Annan said. Machel stated: "We are giving a
time line of 2010. It is not a matter of whether it will be
achieved or not, it is a matter of a must. It cannot be business as
usual." Annan and Machel expressed grave concern about increasing
ethnic tensions and lack of cohesion within the coalition
government. "The leaders should be committed to reform this
country," Annan said. Machel and Annan appealed directly to the
Kenyan people, encouraging Kenyans to show increased awareness and
to demand action from their leaders. "Political leaders must take
the lead but the citizens must also show some concern and be
sensitive to their (the policians') divisive ways. They must show
that they cannot tolerate certain things," Machel said. Annan also
urged the government to cooperate with the ICC.




5. Annan also expressed, publicly and privately, concern about
continued extra-judicial killings. "We are gravely concerned by
reports of targeted killings and continuing impunity," Annan
stated.

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6. Annan told me that he will return in March 2010. He will
use his foundation to host a meeting in Nairobi with civil society
and other stakeholders in the reform process (similar to the
meeting he held in Geneva in March 2009). He wants to use the
meeting to help mobilize Kenyans to push for implementation of the
reform agenda.




7. Comment: As Annan told me, Kibaki and Odinga are certainly
not happy when they hear that he is coming back to Kenya, because
they do not want to be confronted by the reality of lack of
movement on key reform issues, and the international pressure for
action for which Annan stands. Annan's continuing visits serve not
only to press the principals privately, but to encourage Kenyan
citizens, civil society, religious groups, the private sector, the
media, and Parliament to press for implementation of the reform
agenda. Annan has repeatedly told me that he sees the United States
as the only outside actor with the influence and muscle to push on
the reform agenda, and I am continuing to coordinate closely with
him.
RANNEBERGER