SOMALIA- HISBUL ISLAM DISMISSES ITS HIRAAN LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002343 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PTER SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA- HISBUL ISLAM DISMISSES ITS HIRAAN LEADER REF: NAIROBI 2319 Classified By: Political Counselor Bob Patterson, reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In recent days, Hisbul Islam leader Sheikh Abdirahman Ma'ow left Hiraan region and the TFG Security Minister's unpopular candidate for governor of Hiraan reportedly has refused to take the job, two events that signal the growing strength of Hiraan's political and diaspora community. Our contacts tell us that Hisbul Islam, unsatisfied with Ma'ow's ability to shore up local support for HI efforts and confront an evolving local Hiraan administration, told Ma'ow to leave Hiraan. General Hassan Ali "Qeyloy", a member of the Italian Somali diaspora and TFG Security Minister Sanboloshi's unpopular candidate for Hiraan governor (reftel),refused the position, probably after consultation in Mogadishu with Hiraan leaders. Multiple Hiraan contacts tell us that they do not trust Sanboloshi and believe he will continue to try to undercut local governance efforts in the region. We are encouraging Hiraan leaders and elders to attempt to deconflict any competing initiatives in the region and to move forward with local efforts to politically and militarily confront HI. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Our contacts tell us that Hisbul Islam, unsatisfied with Ma'ow's ability to shore up local support for HI efforts and confront an evolving local Hiraan administration (reftel),told Ma'ow they wanted to send him to Maxaas near Galgaduud region. Ma'ow also has family in Maxaas and contacts tell us HI thought he might have greater success there. Ma'ow, however, refused to leave and told HI that Hiraan was his region and that they, as Hawiye/Habr Gedir and Hawiye/Murosade clansmen, were outsiders. (Note: The capital of Hiraan, Beledweyne, is multi-clan but dominated by the Hawiye/Hawaadle subclan. Ma'ow, as well as Sanboloshi, are members of the Hawiye/Hawaadle/Ali Madaxweyne subclan. End note.) HI subsequently threatened to kill Ma'ow if he tried to stay and govern Hiraan. Our contacts tell us HI immediately replaced Ma'ow with another member of the Hawaadle/Ali Madaxweyne subclan. ¶3. (C) Our contacts tell us that Ma'ow traveled to Maxaas to meet with a former District Commissioner and relative there and ask him to negotiate with ASWJ for Ma'ow's safe passage through Galgaduud. The relative reportedly convinced ASWJ to allow Ma'ow safe passage by assuring ASWJ Ma'ow had turned over his technicals and personal militia to relatives in Maxaas and would be traveling through Galgaduud unarmed. Contacts tell us Ma'ow as of November 10 had reached Galcaio and intended to travel to Saudi Arabia for the Haj. ¶4. (C) Against the backdrop of Ma'ow's departure, our contacts tell us General Hassan Ali "Qeyloy", an Hawaadle/Ali Madaxweyne member of the Italian Somali diaspora and TFG Security Minister Sanboloshi's unpopular candidate for Hiraan governor, refused the position after consultation in Mogadishu with Hiraan leaders. TFG Hiraan force commander Mukhtar, Hiraan MPs and Hiraan elders in recent days have reportedly joined efforts in Mogadishu to circle the Hawaadle clan wagons and voice their concern to the TFG over Sanboloshi's candidate. Sanboloshi, however, reportedly failed to attend an intra-Hawaadle subclan meeting meant to resolve the issue of "Qeyloy". Multiple contacts tell us that they do not trust Sanboloshi and believe he will continue to try to undercut local governance efforts in Hiraan. Our contacts tell us they think Sanboloshi's interest in Hiraan is motivated by a combined want to even the score for his Ali Madaxweyne subsubclan and to gain access to any resources intended for Hiraan.(Note: Sanboloshi and Ma'ow's Hawadle/Ali Madaxweyne subsubclan has historically been composed of predominately rural pastoralists who reportedly view themselves as politically dominated by other Hawaadle subclans. End note.) ¶5. (C) Comment: We think Ma'ows departure from Hiraan and "Qeloy's" decision to return to Italy are positive developments. We are encouraging Hiraan leaders and elders to attempt to deconflict any competing initiatives in the region and to move forward with local efforts to politically and militarily confront HI. RANNEBERGER