SOMALIA-TFG'S HIRAAN FORCE COMMANDER AND LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002319

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MOPS SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA-TFG'S HIRAAN FORCE COMMANDER AND LOCAL
LEADERS FRUSTRATED BY LACK OF SUPPORT

Classified By: Somalia Unit PolOff Joe Trimble for reasons 1.4(b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: TFG General Mukhtar's forces as of November 4
lost a strategic location five miles outside of the Hiraan
capital Beledweyne to Hisbul Islam (HI) militia. TFG and
TFG-aligned forces reportedly took the location 3 days
before, fueled by local support but frustrated by lack of
political or military support from the TFG. Mukhtar during
an October 30 telecon with Somalia Unit PolOff said the TFG
has not provided any support to his forces and accused
Sanboloshi of working to undercut local governance efforts in
Hiraan. We think the TFG-HI stalemate is likely to continue
and, as a result, positions near Beledweyne will continue to
periodically change hands. However, a far worse and plausible
scenario would include an increasing proportion of Hiraan's
population aligning with HI leader Ma'ow due to TFG efforts,
real or perceived, to block the evolution of local governance
in Hiraan. We are encouraging Hiraan leaders, elders, and
Mukhtar to attempt to deconflict any competing initiatives in
the region and to move forward with local efforts to
politically and militarily confront HI. End Summary.

2. (C) TFG General Mukhtar's forces as of November 4 lost a
strategic location near the Hiraan capital Beledweyne to
Hisbul Islam (HI) militia. TFG and TFG-aligned forces
reportedly took the location 3 days before when they,
supported by the local community that has been feeding and
watering Mukhtar's forces, left their base outside of
Beledweyne and moved on a HI hilltop position approximately
five kilometers outside of the town. HI technicals reportedly
re-entered Beledweyne after taking their hilltop position
back from TFG forces. (Note: TFG and HI forces for several
weeks reportedly remained outside of Beledweyne due to
requests from clan elders. Control of Beledweyne and its
environs has changed hands multiple times in recent months.
End note.)

3. (C) Mukhtar during an October 30 telecon with Somalia Unit
PolOff said Sanboloshi is working to undercut local
governance efforts in Hiraan. According to Mukhtar,
Sanboloshi intends to appoint General Hassan Ali "Qeyloy," a
relative and member of the Italian Somali diaspora, as
governor of Hiraan. Mukhtar said Sanboloshi did not consult
local leaders about his choice for governor; "Qeyloy" is out
of touch with the region, Mukhtar said. (Note: Multiple
contacts tell us local leaders and several TFG MPs from
Hiraan have been working to build local governance and to
ensure the local population that their support of Mukhtar's
forces will lead to local say in an evolving Hiraan
administration. End note.) Mukhtar said many Hiraan residents
think Sanboloshi is responsible for blocking additional TFG
funding to Hiraan. (Note: Ma'ow was formerly the governor of
Hiraan but in July defected to HI shortly after Sanboloshi
gave him and Mukhtar nearly $100,000 to bolster the TFG's
presence on the ground. Mukhtar and local Hiraan leaders
claim they only received $16,000, and that Ma'ow defected and
absconded with the remaining money. End note.)

4. (C) Comment: We think the TFG-HI stalemate is likely to
continue and, as a result, positions near Beledweyne will
continue to periodically change hands. However, a far worse,
but plausible scenario would include an increasing proportion
of Hiraan's population aligning with Ma'ow due to TFG's
efforts, real or perceived, to block the evolution of local
governance in Hiraan. We are encouraging Hiraan leaders,
elders, and Mukhtar to attempt to deconflict any competing
initiatives in the region and to move forward with local
efforts to politically and militarily confront HI. End
comment.
RANNEBERGER