SOMALIA - SOMALILAND PASSES FIRST WATERSHED MOMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002284 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND ACTING A/S CARTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MOPS SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SOMALILAND PASSES FIRST WATERSHED MOMENT IN ELECTION PROCESS; MULTIPLE CHALLENGES REMAIN REF: A. NAIROBI 2066 ¶B. NAIROBI 2198 Classified By: Somalia Unit POLOFF Joe Trimble for reasons 1.4(b) and ( d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Partly as a result of U.S. engagement and pressure (ref A and previous),the Somaliland Parliament on October 28 swore in all seven National Electoral Commission (NEC) nominees (ref B),the first step in implementing the September 29 Six Point Agreement to hold presidential elections. However, President Riyale flouted electoral law by rejecting his opponents' first set of NEC nominees, indicating his continued willingness to interfere in the election process (the nominees' names and an account of Riyale's machinations were reported in ref a). Next steps for the NEC include technical training and working with an Expert Assessment Team, as called for in the Six Point Agreement, to modify the voter registration list and make recommendations to the political parties. The NEC must act as a cohesive, unified body if it is to withstanding the extreme political pressures the parties will bring to bear. Moving forward, all parties are likely to try to influence the process using technical arguments and many potential flashpoints remain. During an October 28 telecon with Somaliland President Riyale, the Ambassador noted progress thus far and urged Riyale to remain committed to dialogue and to advance the election process. We will stay in close contact with Riyale and his political opponents, stressing the importance of timely forward movement on the Six Point Agreement. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Partly as a result of U.S. engagement and pressure (ref A and previous),the Somaliland Parliament on October 28 swore in all seven National Electoral Commission (NEC) nominees (ref B),marking the first step in implementing the September 29 six point agreement. Multiple contacts tell us one of Riyale's nominees is highly controversial while another of the President's nominees is widely respected as a Somaliland patriot, having been the lead engineer in the construction of the Somaliland parliament building. Most contacts say it is too early to tell if the new NEC represents a significant improvement over the former NEC. However, all agree the NEC must act as a cohesive technical body if it is to have any chance of withstanding the extreme political pressures the parties bring to bear. ¶3. (C) During an October 28 telecon with Somaliland President Riyale, the Ambassador congratulated all parties on constituting the new NEC and urged Riyale to remain committed to dialogue and forward movement on the election process. Riyale, concerned over verification mechanisms related to the voter registration list, asked the Ambassador to weigh in with UK to ensure a planned team of experts to evaluate the voter registration list includes an IT specialist with experience in biometric data collection. ¶4. (C) Next steps for the NEC include technical training and working with an Expert Assessment Team, as called for in the Six Point Agreement, to modify the voter registration list and make recommendations to the political parties. In the next two weeks the NEC will attend a five-day training in Addis Ababa, conducted by UK-based Electoral Reform International Services (ERIS),prior to the deployment of the expert team. The training will focus on the role of the NEC, the role the voter registration list, components of an election, and technical details. The final day of the training is expected to include discussions between the NEC and the U.S.-UK co-chaired and Nairobi-based Democratic Steering Committee. An important function of the training period outside Somaliland is to remove the new NEC from the political pressure of Hargeisa and encourage the group to develop confidence in itself as an independent technical body. The NEC will then be responsible for facilitating the assessment of the UK-funded expert team and co-presenting, along with the experts, findings and recommendations to the political parties. ¶5. (C) Moving forward, all parties are likely to hide political machinations behind technical arguments and many potential flashpoints remain. For example, President Riyale is likely to argue that all "irregularities" need to be NAIROBI 00002284 002 OF 002 removed from the existing voter registration list. This would, of course, be an impossible task that, if attempted, could translate into an indefinite extension of Riyale's mandate. Our contacts tell us that the opposition leadership and most Somalilanders think an acceptable window for the completion of elections is 90-120 days from now. However, contacts close to Riyale tell us the President thinks the Six Point process will take 10-12 months, a time frame that would almost certainly test the patience of Somalilanders and might return protesters to the streets. (Note: The actual language of the Six Point Agreement says that Riyale must step down no later than 30 days after elections. However, the new election date will be proposed to the parties by the expert team, based on their assessment of the voter registration list and logistical preparations for elections, leaving much room for the parties to politically interfere and drag their feet. End note.) ¶6. (C) Comment: We will stay in close contact with Riyale and will continue to stress the importance of timely forward movement on the election process. We are urging all parties to remain committed to dialogue and consensus, and to allow the NEC and expert team to do their work without political interference. End comment. RANNEBERGER