SOMALIA - SOMALILAND UCID CHAIRMAN ATTEMPTING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002163

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019
TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV PINR SOCI SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SOMALILAND UCID CHAIRMAN ATTEMPTING TO
RESOLVE IMPASSE AS PRESIDENT RIYALE STALLS

Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4(b,d
).


1. (C) Summary: Somaliland UCID Party Chairman Warabe on
October 14 updated Somaila Unit POLOFF on the Somaliand
political situation. (Note: In advance of the conversation,
Somaliland President Riyale, in a likely attempt to delay
naming his own nominees, rejected two opposition party
nominations for the National Electoral Commission (NEC) on
technical grounds. Riyale complained that the UCID nominee
had served on the previous NEC and that the Kulmiye nominee
was a party board member. End note.) Warabe said he was
trying to convince Kulmiye Chairman Silanyo, in the interest
of continued forward movement on the election process, to
accept President Riyale's rejection of Kulmiye's candidate to
the NEC. However, Warabe admitted his efforts had so far been
unsuccessful. Warabe said UCID would support the Kulmiye
candidate if the nomination ultimately went forward to the
parliament. (Note: Riyale managed to convince Warabe to
withdraw his nominee. However, Silanyo in an October 13
telecon (septel) told us that Riyale does not have the right
nor the grounds to reject Kulmiye's nominee. Our contacts
tell us that Silanyo, in an October 14 letter to Riyale,
indicated his intention to retain the Kulmiye candidate. End
note.) We are encouraging all parties to quickly resolve the
NEC issue so that they may move forward on the election
process. End summary.

2. (C) UCID chairman Faisal Ali Warabe, who is currently in
Nairobi, on October 14 told us that, if Somaliland President
Riyale had not actively sought to slow down the process, it
would have been possible for all parties to announce their
NEC nominees two days after the party heads met on October 2.
Warabe said he tried to convince Riyale that all parties
should discuss potential nominees together in order to avoid
an unnecessary slowdown but that Riyale had refused. Warabe
said he attempted to meet with Riyale, in advance of putting
forward the UCID nominee, because he heard the President
intended to reject the UCID nominee. Warabe expressed
frustration that Riyale had waited until Warabe officially
put forward a nominee and then sent a letter of rejection.

3. (C) Warabe said Riyale was also operating in a less than
straightforward manner with Silanyo and Somaliland's
clan-based upper house of parliament (the Guurti). According
to Warabe, Riyale met with Silanyo for many hours on October
12 and told Silanyo that he would accept the Kulmiye
candidate. However, Riyale reportedly asked Silanyo that he
should not announce his agreement to the media. Warabe said
Riyale on October 13 sent Silanyo a letter indicating his
rejection of the Kulmiye nominee. (Note: Silanyo told us that
Riyale on October 12 had appeared convinced by many of
Silanyo's arguments, to include Silanyo's argument that his
nominee resigned from Kulmiye's Executive Board long ago, but
that Riyale's inner circle later influenced the President.
End note.)

4. (C) Warabe said that Riyale rejected one of the Guurti's
nominees based on dubious accusations that the nominee had
once been charged with a crime. Faisal said the nominee, a
Somaliand newspaper editor, was in the past detained by the
Somaliland authorities for disagreeing with the government
but that Riyale had not produced proof the nominee was ever
charged. (Note: The Guurti chairman appears to have
outmaneuvered Riyale in clan terms. (Riyale's Gadabursi
subclan is historically represented by Guurti representatives
to the NEC. The chairman, however, reportedly wants to name a
Warsengeli and an Arab Issaq to the NEC instead of a
Gadabursi.) This leaves Riyale with the difficult choice of
nominating a Gadabursi who is not a strong ally of the
President or opening himself up to political criticism that
he is nominating his family, if he appoints a supporter from
his own subclan. End note.) Warabe said he does not think
Riyale will name his nominees by October 15, as Riyale
previously indicated, despite the President's claim to have a
short list of potential nominees.

5. (C) Warabe said the President does not have the authority
to reject the NEC nominees. Such authority, he said, lies
with a subcommittee of the parliament. Warabe said he is,
nevertheless, encouraging Silanyo to accept Riyale' rejection
of Kulmiye's nominee in the interest of forward momentum of
the election process. (Note: Warabe said he withdrew his
nominee in order to prevent needless delays. End note.)
Warabe admitted his efforts so far had been unsuccessful and
said Silanyo on October 14 resubmitted the same nominee to

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Riyale via official letter. Warabe said Silanyo's deputy told
him that if Riyale again rejects Kulmiye's candidate they
will attempt to pressure Silanyo. Warabe said UCID would
support the Kulmiye candidate if the nomination ultimately
went forward to the parliament, however. (Note: The
opposition hold a majority in the parliament and would most
likely be able, as long as solidarity remained between
Kulmiye and UCID, to approve Kulmiye's candidate. End note.)

6. (C) Comment: We are encouraging all parties to quickly
resolve the NEC issue so that they may move forward on the
election process. We think it is important to move beyond the
NEC issue and to encourage Silanyo to remain flexible.
However, we also think Riyale is likely to attempt to
manipulate the process at every stage. Allowing him to do so
during this first step of the process could send a dangerous
signal.
RANNEBERGER