SOMALIA - PRIME MINISTER DISCUSSES TFG TROOP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002132 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL MOPS PINR SOCI SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRIME MINISTER DISCUSSES TFG TROOP INTEGRATION PLANS AND SUPPORT TO JUBA Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: During an October 7 telecon, TFG Prime Minister Sharmarke updated the Somalia Unit on Yemeni support to the TFG, the status of TFG forces in Djibouti, and TFG support to Ahmed Madobe's alliance in Lower Juba. Sharmarke said the Yemenis have provided the TFG with AK47s, other equipment, and uniforms that the TFG plans to give to Siad Barre-era troops in Mogadishu. Sharmarke said the TFG plans to incorporate the 560 TFG troops currently in Djibouti with the former Barre forces. Sharmarke told us he talked to Ahmed Madobe (reftel) on October 6 and sent $50,000 to Madobe via an intermediary in Dubai. The Prime Minister said he was also attempting to reach the Kenyan Minister of Defense in order to discuss Kenyan support for a "second phase" in Lower Juba. Sharmarke said he is planning to reduce the size of the TFG Cabinet and told us the TFG probably will soon replace Police Commissioner Qeybdid and Army Chief Dhumaal. End summary. -------------- Plan to Integrate Djibouti Forces -------------- ¶2. (C) Sharmarke said the TFG on October 7 finalized a plan to integrate the 560 TFG troops currently in Djibouti, upon their return to Somalia in mid-October, with 700 Siad Barre-era military forces. Sharmarke asked for USG salary support for the 1,260 troops. Sharmarke said that the Yemenis had provided the TFG with AK47s, other equipment, and uniforms that the TFG plans to distribute, via AMISOM, to the two battalions that will result when the returning TFG troops are combined with the Barre-era soldiers, who are currently based with AMISOM. (Note: Sharmarke did not know how many weapons and uniforms were in the Yemeni shipment but said he would speak to the TFG Defense Minister and send us a list of what the TFG had received. End note.) Sharmarke said the 1,269 forces probably would be based at a pre-existing camp at the end of the airport and would fall under the overall command of the Medina force commander. -------------- TFG Support to Madobe and Juba -------------- ¶3. (C) Sharmarke told us he talked to Ahmed Madobe on October 6 and sent $50,000 to Madobe via an intermediary in Dubai. (Note: The intermediary, Somalia Unit contact and prominent Ogaden-clan business figure Mohamed Sheikh, told us on October 7 that the Prime Minister said the TFG would send him the money, but that he was still waiting for the transfer. End note.) Madobe told Sharmarke that he was running out of ammunition and money and that al-Shabaab was reinforcing from Merca. Sharmarke said he was attempting to arrange for a qat flight out of Mogadishu to take ammunition to the Lower Juba town of Afmadow. Madobe reportedly told Sharmarke that the TFG can trust him and that he will work with other forces in Lower Juba, if Kenyan-trained Somalis are able to organize such forces. ¶4. (C) Sharmarke said he is attempting to reach the Kenyan Defense Minister in order to discuss a "second phase" for Lower Juba. Sharmarke said the TFG wants 36 troops who have been trained in Kenya to return to Middle and Lower Juba in order to organize reinforcements for Madobe's alliance. (Note: Juba contacts in early October told us the 36 forces in Kenya plan to organize forces from inside the northeast Kenyan Dadaab refugee camp rather than from inside Juba. End note.) -------------- Considering Internal TFG Changes -------------- ¶5. (C) Sharmarke said he is planning to reduce the cabinet and told us the TFG probably will soon replace Police Commissioner Qeybdiid and Army Chief Dhumaal. Sharmarke provided no additional detail regarding these potential changes but said there was a short list of possible replacements for both. (Note: President Sharif and Sharmarke have, since the last cabinet reshuffle, told us repeatedly that they intend to reduce the cabinet. End note.) -------------- NAIROBI 00002132 002 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) We think that the TFG's efforts to devise a plan for the integration of TFG forces in Djibouti is a positive development and are working with the TFG in order to avoid duplication of efforts regarding Yemeni and potential U.S. support. We think the TFG's assistance in Lower Juba may help to undercut Aweys' likely intention to hijack the clan-based initiative, however, we remain concerned that the Kenyans do not understand Juba clan politics well enough to positively manipulate the situation and think recruitment out of Dadaab refugee camp, if true, would only complicate an already fluid and complex situation. HOZA