SOMALIA - RESIGNATIONS PAVE WAY FOR NEW SOMALILAND

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002099 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - RESIGNATIONS PAVE WAY FOR NEW SOMALILAND NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION REF: NAIROBI 2066 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Over the weekend of October 2, all of the members of the disputed Somaliland National Election Commission (NEC) resigned, paving the way for the appointment of a new, hopefully less controversial NEC that could go some way in preparing the ground for the much-postponed presidential elections. Kulmiye opposition party Chairman Ahmed Silanyo in an October 5 telephone conversation from Hargeisa, was cautiously optimistic that progress on elections could be made. He thought that the Guurti (the Council of Elders) could vote on the seven new NEC members by as early as October 7. Silanyo's optimism was tempered by memories of recent past failures to move the election process forward, however. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) In an October 5 telephone conversation from Hargeisa, Somaliland, Kulimiye opposition party Chairman Ahmed Silanyo confirmed media accounts that all members of the National Election Commission (NEC) had in fact resigned during the weekend of October 2. Silanyo alleged that the stage had been set for their resignations when President Riyale, opposition UCID Chairman Faisal Ali Warabe, and he had agreed October 3 on a framework roadmap to the elections. The roadmap included a new NEC, adjustments to the voter registration list, cooperation between the new NEC and Somaliland's political parties, and NGO involvement in the political process. ¶3. (SBU) Cascading NEC member resignations accompanied and followed the agreement among the three political leaders. Silanyo alleged that each nominating entity (the President, the Guurti, Silanyo, and Warabe) had identified their new candidates for the NEC. He said they would be presented to the Guurti and possibly voted on within the next two days. ¶4. (SBU) While acknowledging that the current outward harmony among the three parties could end at any moment, Silanyo was nevertheless cautiously optimistic that the process would go forward. He thought that international pressure and a belated realization by all parties that Somaliland's precarious stability could end if the stand-off continued would force the parties to continue to negotiate in good faith. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: The end of the compromised NEC and Silanyo's cautious optimism are good news, although many difficult compromises remain to be made by all of the players and it is far from certain that the current good will can be sustained. HOZA