1. On September 23 and 24, the Kenya U.N. Office for
the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
organized the 2010 Kenya Emergency Humanitarian
Response Plan (EHRP) workshop to asses current and
projected countrywide humanitarian conditions to inform
the development of the 2010 EHRP scheduled for release
in November. Participants highlighted projected 2010
humanitarian conditions characterized by continued
effects of flooding resulting from anticipated enhanced
2009 October to December short rains; the likelihood of
continued drought conditions despite heavy 2009 short
rains; increased conflict and displacement resulting
from competition for limited resources, as well as
potential flashpoints associated with Mau forest
evictions and the constitutional referendum process; a
continued influx of Somali refuges; and increased urban
vulnerability. End summary.



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BACKGROUND


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2. The EHRP is an annual inter-agency strategy
developed by U.N. agencies and non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) in consultation with Government of
Kenya (GOK) and donor partners that outlines and
prioritizes humanitarian response activities as part of
consolidated appeal.



3. In November 2008, the U.N. released the initial
2009 Kenya EHRP for USD 392 million, targeting
remaining post-election violence needs, emerging
drought conditions, and refugee assistance. In March
2009, the U.N. released a revised 2009 EHRP requesting
an additional USD 189, for a total of USD 581 million,
in response to increased humanitarian needs associated
with severe drought conditions and increased food
insecurity.



4. The U.S. Government (USG) represents the single,
largest donor, providing an estimated USD 87 million in
humanitarian assistance to Kenya in 2009 and accounting
for more than 30 percent of total contributions,
according to OCHA. Japan is the second largest donor,
with USD 24 million in assistance, representing
approximately 8 percent of total humanitarian
contributions, followed by the U.K. with USD 11 million
in assistance.



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CURRENT CONTEXT


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5. Consecutive seasons of failed rains have resulted
in acute water shortages in pastoralist regions of
North Eastern and Eastern provinces; an estimated 28
percent reduction in the main 2009 long rain harvest;
and an increase in malnutrition rates and food
beneficiaries from 1.3 million to 3.8 million since
August 2008. Insecurity in some areas of Kenya
continues to reduce access and impede response efforts,
including Mandera, Laikipia, and West Pokot districts.
In addition, the crisis in Somalia continues to fuel
refugee flows into Kenya.



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Looking Ahead in 2010


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--- Climate Conditions ---



6. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) reported
that El Nino conditions are expected to result in
enhanced rains throughout Kenya during the October to
December short rains season and extension of the short
rain season into January 2010. El Nino conditions are
expected to result in normal to above-normal rainfall
in the region, positively impacting agriculture and
food security but also potentially resulting in
flooding, reduced access, and increased incidences of
human and livestock water-related diseases. However,
the KMD highlighted the likelihood of continued drought
conditions in 2010 despite heavy 2009 short rains.

--- Urban Vulnerabilities ---



7. Urbanization represents an increasing trend in
Kenya and worldwide, with urban residents projected to
account for half of the Kenyan population by 2020.
According to Oxfam, approximately one-third of all
Kenyan urban populations subsist on less than USD 1 a
day, confronting limited livelihood opportunities and
significant vulnerabilities. An absence of
surveillance, monitoring, and targeted response efforts
characterize urban areas. OCHA highlighted the need
for increased attention and planning to address the
vulnerabilities of urban populations.



8. In recent months, rising food prices and reduced
casual labor opportunities have resulted in widespread
reductions in meal size and frequency among urban
populations, according to Oxfam. The long rains
assessment identified 2.5 million chronically food
insecure individuals located in urban areas. Poor
water, sanitation, and hygiene services and
infrastructure combined with a high population density
in urban areas result in increased risk of disease
outbreaks, such as cholera. High numbers of unemployed
youth contribute to general insecurity in urban areas
and potential escalations in tensions and conflict.

--- Cross-border Issues ---



9. Cross-border tensions and insecurity are expected
to continue to affect humanitarian conditions and staff
security in Kenya. Drought conditions have resulted in
increased pastoralist and livestock migration from
Kenya to Ethiopia and Somalia, increasing tensions
associated with competition for scarce resources and
the potential for the spread of human and livestock
diseases, such as cholera, polio, peste des petits
ruminants (PPR), and Rift Valley Fever in the coming
months.



10. According to Office of the U.N. High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR), the current refugee population in
Kenya is estimated at 486,000 individuals?a significant
increase from the 2008 refugee population total of
355,000 individuals. UNHCR projects that by December
2009, the total refugee population in Kenya will exceed
500,000 individuals. According to UNHCR, approximately
283,000 refugees are currently located in the Dadaab
refugee complex in North Eastern Province, in a
facility originally intended to accommodate a
population of 90,000 individuals. UNHCR anticipates a
continued influx of Somali refugees in 2010 that will
exacerbate current levels of severe overcrowding and
inadequate service provision.

--- Peace and Reconciliation and Internal Displacement ---



11. The impact and recovery of post-election violence
(PEV) remains ongoing in Kenya. In addition, UNHCR
notes inadequate IDP definitions and tracking
mechanisms in Kenya. According to UNHCR, there are
approximately 300,000 IDPs from previous PEV crises
between 1992 and 2007 currently in Kenya.



12. Drought conditions have exacerbated resource-based
conflict in affected areas. Between June and August,
the Horn of Africa Intergovernmental Authority on
Development (IGAD) initiative Conflict Early Warning
and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) reported 158 security
incidents and 144 deaths in the Karamoja cluster area
of Kenya, including 38 cross-border raids. During the
same time period, CEWARN reported 60 incidents and 62
deaths in the Somali cluster of Kenya.



13. UNHCR highlighted potential new threats in 2010,
including conflict and displacement associated with the
proposed Mau Forest evictions, pastoralist competition
for limited resources, El Nino flooding, and the
release of International Criminal Court (ICC)
indictments.



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2010 EHRP Sector and Strategic Priorities


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14. Participants in the 2010 EHRP workshop identified
11 sectors for inclusion in the 2010 EHRP, including
coordination, early recovery, education, food aid, food
security and agriculture, health, multi-sector refugee
assistance, nutrition, protection, shelter and non-food
items (NFIs), and water, sanitation, and hygiene.
Participants identified four strategic objectives for
the 2010 EHRP; achieve national and international
standards in humanitarian service provision; increase
coordination and linkage mechanisms among relevant
stakeholders; improve information coordination and
management; integrate disaster risk reduction and early
recovery approaches into humanitarian response efforts.
The finalized 2010 EHRP is scheduled for release in
November 2009.



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COMMENT


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15. USAID/OFDA staff note that the 2009 EHRP totaling
more than a half billion USD reflects a blurring of the
distinction between humanitarian and development
assistance. Although USAID/OFDA welcomes the release
of the 2010 EHRP, projected to exceed the 2009 EHRP
appeal, USAID/OFDA notes that EHRP has evolved into an
expansive list of projects and activities intended to
rapidly address long-term, chronic development and
infrastructure deficits that are beyond the scope of
humanitarian assistance. USAID/OFDA will continue to
monitor current and evolving humanitarian conditions
and collaborate with development partners and the
Government of Kenya to address immediate needs.

RANNEBERGER