SOMALIA - Somaliland Averts Crisis

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 002030 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Somaliland Averts Crisis REF: a) Nairobi 2010 b) Nairobi 2009 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On September 25, Somaliland averted what appeared to be an imminent political crisis when its Guurti (House of Elders) agreed that all parties must adhere to the six-point framework agreement that had been endorsed by all sides. (A day earlier, on September 24, most observers believed that the Guurti would opt for a unilateral, one-year extension of President Riyale's term in office.) Opposition supporters rallied the public to prepare to protest this ruling and the government massed its police. Once the Guurti's announcement was made, the crowds dispersed and all parties celebrated an end to the standoff and a new opportunity to break the political deadlock. The text of the agreement is in Paragraph 7. The six-point framework agreement will be signed in Hargeisa, most likely on September 29. The Ambassador and President Riyale will speak by telephone on September 29. Somalia Unit and other members of the Nairobi-based international community will mobilize a team of independent international experts to help the National Electoral Commission review election preparations and set a new timeline. End summary. -------------- Immediate Crisis Averted -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On September 24, all signs were that parties in Somaliland were headed for a bitter showdown. Reports indicated that the Guurti's unilateral extension of President Riyale's term in office for one year was a fait accompli (ref a). Although Riyale stated publicly that he supported the six-point framework agreement, he also said that the Guurti is an independent body and that he would not interfere in its work. The opposition, respected Somaliland leaders, and members of the administration warned Riyale and members of the Guurti that an extension would undermine the six-point framework agreement and reduce prospects that consensus on the way forward could be reached. We made the same point to the Office of the President and to our contacts from all sectors. We registering as well concern that a Guurti decision to extend Riyale's term would likely lead to violence. ¶3. (SBU) We understand that intense political negotiations among all parties lasted until 4:00 a.m., September 25. One of our contacts within the government told us that Riyale unsuccessfully tried to strengthen his hand by re-deploying military forces from the Sool and Sanaag regions to Hargeisa. The general in charge of these troops reportedly refused the order. Another government contact told us that in the middle of the night he confronted Riyale, telling him that if he proceeded with his plan, the U.S. would make him a target of sanctions, including a travel ban and asset freeze. Traditional and clan leaders played a prominent role in the negotiations. Many of the pressure points outlined in ref b were used liberally by those trying to avert a crisis. ¶4. (SBU) On the morning of September 25, there was a heavy military and police presence in the area around the presidency and the Parliament. The public heeded calls by the opposition parties to gather and prepare to protest any unilateral move by the Guurti. While the situation was tense, there was no violence. At approximately 9:30 a.m.(local),the Guurti convened and announced its decision that all parties must adhere to the six-point framework agreement and that the President's term in office would expire one month after the presidential election. Saleban Mohamud, the Guurti Chairman, told reporters the elders had overwhelmingly voted to pressure Riyale into negotiations. This decision rubber stamped the general framework agreement and clarified various constitutional interpretations that some claimed would have led to a power vacuum. After the decision was announced, the crowds dispersed peacefully. -------------- All Parties Ready to Move Forward -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Right after the Guurti's September 25 announcement, we spoke with the Office of the President, Minister of Foreign Affairs, leaders from both opposition parties, and civil society representatives who were all happy with the results. Foreign Minister Duale told us that, through this process, the Somaliland authorities have learned that the United States was a "true friend" of Somaliland. Duale said the decision was "bad news for the extremists who had hoped to exploit a power vacuum and popular NAIROBI 00002030 002 OF 003 dissatisfaction." Duale and representatives from the opposition parties asked for immediate U.S. assistance to re-focus their efforts on the next steps. They asked us to help "guarantee" that the elections take place as quickly as possible. They also asked for more sustained U.S. engagement in Somaliland, including a focus on institution-building and job opportunities. -------------- Memorandum of Understanding -------------- ¶6. (SBU) We received the text of the framework agreement from our UK counterparts who told us that the signing ceremony will likely be scheduled for September 29. The UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) will charter a plane for members of the international community to be present at the event. The UK representative told us that all are eager to have as wide representation as possible to indicate that the agreement is "not an Ethiopian-only initiative." ¶7. (U) The text of the six point agreement follows: Begin text: MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF SOMALILAND The three registered political parties in Somaliland, together hereafter referred to as the "Parties;" Committed to preserving the peace, stability and credibility that Somaliland has achieved over the last decade and half; Conscious of their responsibilities to safeguard the welfare of the people of Somaliland in a sub-region where the preservation of peace and stability in any country is not an easy exercise; Fully cognisant of the imperative necessity of creating the conditions for fair, free and peaceful elections, without which the preservation of peace, stability and credibility of Somaliland will not be possible; Fully convinced that the ruling party and the two opposition parties have historic responsibility to make the upcoming election free, fair and peaceful; have reached the following understanding: -- Paragraph 1 Given the shortage of time remaining before September 27, 2009, which is the jointly agreed time for the next election, the parties accept that the election be postponed. The new time for the election is to be decided as per what is stated in paragraphs 4 and 5 below. -- Paragraph 2 The Parties agree that all options, including changes in the leadership and composition of the National Election Commission, need to be considered to restore public confidence in the Commission and to make sure that the Commission is able to perform the role expected of it under the Constitution. -- Paragraph 3 The three parties have agreed that there is a need for a voters' registration list as legally provided for, for this and future elections. In this regard, taking note of the shortcomings of the existing voter registration list, the three parties accept that there is a need to further refine the list and to consider whether further safeguards are required to avoid multiple voting. -- Paragraph 4 The parties have agreed to invite independent international experts to assist the National Election Commission in reviewing Somaliland's electoral preparations. The experts will be invited to submit their recommendations to the Commission including on how to refine the provisional voter list, and on the timetable under which the remaining preparations for the election can be held. The Commission shall then fix the new date for the election based on the amount of time required for the final election preparations to be made. NAIROBI 00002030 003 OF 003 The Parties also decided that detailed terms of reference for the experts should be agreed with the political parties and the Commission. -- Paragraph 5 On the basis that the determination of the date of the election is de-politicised, with the date to be fixed by the Commission, in light of the recommendations by the experts as set out in paragraph 4 above, the parties have agreed that the term of office of the President and Vice-President should be extended to a date not more than one month after the date to be fixed by the Commission for the elections. -- Paragraph 6 The parties underline the need for Friends of Somaliland to continue their engagement with the three parties with the view to contributing to the faithful implementation of the understanding contained in paragraphs 1 to 5 above and assisting the Somaliland authorities to carry out a free, fair and peaceful elections critical for preserving the stability, security and credibility of Somaliland. -------------- Next Steps -------------- ¶8. (SBU) On September 25, we met with our international counterparts, including the UK, EU, Norway, Sweden and UNPOS. All agreed that while the immediate crisis was averted, the framework agreement offers few details and provides leeway for all parties, especially the government and the ruling UDUB party, to drag their feet. In fact, the MOU is just a general agreement to move forward on the elections, returning the process to where it was on July 27, prior to the decision by the NEC and the government to throw out the voter registration list. All donors agreed that continued pressure on all parties, especially the government, is necessary to maintain momentum. ¶9. (SBU) Also on September 25 Ambassador Ranneberger sent a letter to President Riyale requesting a telephone conversation in order to register our concern about recent developments in Somaliland, as well as to discuss the Somaliland President's plans for the elections and to push for rapid changes to the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and refining the voter registration list. A call between Riyale and the Ambassador has been scheduled for the morning of September 29. ¶10. (SBU) In the coming days, the UK and the U.S. will co-chair a meeting of the Somaliland Democratization Committee, bringing together the Nairobi-based missions focused on the electoral process. All international partners agreed that collectively we must push the parties to quickly change the composition of the NEC. These changes would pave the way for the team of international experts mentioned in para 4 of the MOU. The UK announced that it will pay for a small team, but only after a new NEC leadership has been announced. We will augment this team with expertise through our Somaliland-based partners to help the NEC develop recommendations to fix a new election date. ¶11. (SBU) While the framework agreement was celebrated by all sides, it is very broad and provides no details on the modalities of implementation. However, it was successful in breaking the political impasse, thus averting what many thought would become a violent confrontation. We plan to continue our engagement with Somaliland, emphasizing contacts with those in the political parties, but also with the traditional elders, businessmen, and clan leaders who continue to wield significant influence over the political landscape. RANNEBERGER