HORN OF AFRICA EL NINO REGIONAL

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002029 AIDAC USAID/DCHA JBRAUSE DCHA/OFDA FOR PMORRIS; ACONVERY; KCHANNELL; MBEERS; APIYAKA DCHA/FFP JBORNS; JDWORKEN; SANTHONY; CMUTAMBA; DNELSON; USAID/AFR/EA JESCALONA USUN FOR DMERCADO ROME FOR HSPANOS GENEVA FOR NKYLOH BRUSSELS FOR USEU JADDLETON; PBROWN NSC FOR CPRATT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF KE SUBJECT: HORN OF AFRICA EL NINO REGIONAL PROJECTIONS. -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. The recently concluded Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in East Africa Climate Outlook Forum confirmed the presence of the El Nino weather phenomenon in the greater Horn of Africa region. El Nino conditions are expected to result in normal to above-normal rainfall during the upcoming September to December rainfall season in the region, positively impacting agriculture and food security but also potentially resulting in flooding, reduced access, and increased incidences of human and livestock water- related diseases. Humanitarian organizations operating in the region are developing contingency plans, including the pre-positioning of humanitarian stocks and identification of alternative transport options to mitigate the impact of flooding. USAID?s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) maintains flexible programming mechanisms with existing implementing partners to facilitate rapid response capacity and continues to closely monitor flood-prone areas in the region. End summary. -------------- Regional Overview -------------- ¶2. According to IGAD, El Nino conditions are projected to result in normal to above-normal rainfall during the September to December rainy season in the region. Rains are expected to start on time in most of the October to December rainfall?dependent areas, intensify in November, and extend into early 2010. Increased rainfall is expected to positively impact water and pasture availability, crop production, and associated food insecurity, particularly in drought-affected pastoral, agropastoral, and lowland cropping areas, according to the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). ¶3. However, FEWS NET cautions that heavy rains are likely to result in increased livestock mortality among weakened animals in drought-affected areas, flooding, infrastructure damage, reduced humanitarian and commercial access, and increased incidents in human and livestock water-related diseases, such as malaria, diarrheal disease, and Rift Valley Fever (RVF). Flood- prone areas likely to be affected include the Juba valley in Somalia, Shabelle valley in Ethiopia and Somalia, and the Tana River valley, coastal lowland, and Lake Victoria basin areas in Kenya, according to FEWS NET. ¶4. In late 2006, unusually heavy rainfall associated with the last occurrence of El Nino conditions caused widespread flooding in many parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. According to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA),2006 short rains flooding in Kenya affected an estimated 723,000 people countrywide, accompanied by an increased incidence of water-related diseases, and significant damage to roads, crops, and farmland. In addition, 2006 regional flooding affected an estimated 362,000 people in Ethiopia, according to the U.N., and an estimated 255,000 individuals in Somalia, according to the Somalia Support Secretariat?s flood working group. However, FEWS NET projections indicate that 2009 El Nino conditions are likely to be mild to moderate, compared to the moderate classification of the 2006 El Nino season and therefore FEWS NET anticipates a reduced impact compared to 2006. -------------- Kenya -------------- ¶5. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has projected above-normal rainfall performance for the North Eastern, Coast, Western, Nyanza, and central Rift Valley provinces, and normal rainfall levels for the remaining areas of Rift Valley, Central, and Eastern provinces. Increased rainfall would positively impact agriculture and food security in drought-affected areas. However, the El Nino phenomenon is also expected to bring heavy rains and flooding. ¶6. In early September, the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) shared potential 2009 short rains scenarios with the humanitarian community to help inform contingency and mitigation planning. Best-case scenarios projections anticipate that flooding will affect 200,000 individuals, including the displacement of 20,000 people. In the most likely scenario, KRCS anticipates that flooding will affect 750,000 individuals, including 150,000 refugees, and 100,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs). Flooding and landslides are likely to occur in Muranga and Nyeri, Central Province; Nakuru, Nandi, Baringo, and Pokot, Rift Valley Province; Kisii, Nyanza Province; and Meru, Eastern Province, according to KRCS. In the unlikely, worst-case scenario, KRCS projected floods could affect up to 2 million people, including displacement of an estimated 200,000 individuals. -------------- Somalia -------------- ¶7. FEWS NET reports an increased likelihood of near to above-normal rainfall for most of Somalia during the next October to December deyr rains. In particular, rains are expected to be heavy in southern and central regions where consecutive seasons of poor rainfall have negatively affected agriculture and livestock sectors. ¶8. FEWS NET notes that above normal 2009 deyr rains would end the drought in affected regions. However, FEWS NET cautions that initial heavy rains would likely contribute to increased mortality among weak, drought- affected animals, further undermining pastoralist livelihoods and food security. In addition, heavy rains would exacerbate poor shelter conditions among IDPs, including more than 600,000 IDPs concentrated along the Afgooye corridor outside of Mogadishu. FEWS NET also reports the likelihood of heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands, resulting in significant flooding along the Juba and Shabelle river basins of southern and central Somalia. -------------- Conclusion -------------- ¶9. Elevated September to December rainfall levels associated with El Nino conditions in the Horn of Africa present opportunities and challenges associated with replenished water sources, regenerated pasture, and improved crop production, as well as potential flooding, infrastructure damage, and increased incidents of water-related diseases. Overall food security for vulnerable populations in the region is unlikely to significantly improve due to the cumulative impact of consecutive seasons of poor rains, high food prices, and insecurity that have contributed to asset depletion and elevated food insecurity. In addition, historical trends indicate that drought conditions typically follow an El Nino season, undermining potential short-term agricultural and pastoralist gains from a robust short rains season. However, an enhanced short rains season represents an opportunity to increase short-cycle harvests if seed and fertilizer availability is augmented, as well as an opportunity to increase water availability through improved collection and storage capacity. ¶10. Humanitarian organizations operating in the region are preparing contingency plans to mitigate the impact of potential flooding, including pre-positioning emergency relief commodities and identifying alternative transport options. On September 14, OCHA and the Government of Kenya Ministry of State for Special Programs hosted a consultative contingency planning workshop to facilitate the development of a common response strategy attended by representatives from relevant GOK ministries, U.N. agencies, non- governmental organizations (NGOs),and donors, including USAID/OFDA. In addition, the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) and the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) have drafted contingency plans for refugee areas in northeastern and northwestern Kenya. Flooding in 2006 affected more than 100,000 refugees in the Dadaab refugee complex, currently host to an estimated 290,000 refugees and characterized by severe overcrowding and limited service provision. ¶11. USAID/OFDA maintains flexible programming mechanisms with existing implementing partners to facilitate rapid response capacity and continues to closely monitor flood-prone areas in the region. RANNEBERGER.