SOMALIA - SOMALILAND INTER-PARTY AGREEMENT NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002010 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINR SOCI SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SOMALILAND INTER-PARTY AGREEMENT NOT SIGNED; GUURTI DEBATING TERM EXTENSION FOR PRESIDENT REF: NAIROBI 2009 Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: September 24 telephone conversations with the Somaliland Foreign Minister, the leader of one of Somaliland's two opposition parties, and the Speaker suggest that disagreements over the way forward have crystallized in an effort by the presidential party-dominated Council of Elders (the Guurti) to extend the President's term for one year, against the wishes of the opposition. Kulmiye opposition party Chairman Silanyo alleged to Somalia Unit that the governing party had failed to sign the agreed framework agreement and said that an extension of the President's term by the Guurti would re-ignite street demonstrations in Hargeisa. Silanyo and the Speaker called on the international community to pressure President Riyale to end efforts to extend his term and to urge the President to sign the framework document. End summary. ¶2. (C) Disagreements among the players in Somaliland's ongoing political drama intensified somewhat September 24. Kulmiye opposition party Chairman Silanyo told Somalia Unit by telephone from Hargeisa that his willingness, with UCID opposition party Chairman Warabe, to sign a framework agreement had not been reciprocated by the ruling UDUB party. In addition, Silanyo said (and the lower house Speaker confirmed) that the government party-dominated Guurti was planning to extend President Riyale's term. Both thought the vote to extend for as much as one year would occur on September 25. The Guurti's apparent intention to extend Riyale in office was in reported contrast to the action of the lower house of Parliament, which on September 24 suspended its session to prevent efforts to impeach the President. ¶3. (C) Somaliland Foreign Minister Dualeh confirmed September 24 that the Guurti was discussing extension of Riyale's term. He did not know for how long it might be extended, but insisted that urgent extension was necessary in order to prevent a "crisis," as Riyale's term was scheduled to expire on September 29. (Note: The parties disagree on when the term ends with the opposition arguing that it ends on October 29). Dualeh maintained that the framework agreement remained in play among the three parties, but accused some in the opposition of attempting to sabotage the progress that had been made. ¶4. (C) In Dualeh's projected chronology, extension of Riyale's mandate would be followed by the arrival in Hargeisa of a Government of Ethiopia official and a United Kingdom representative to chart next steps. A Nairobi-based UK official who was on the last delegation to Somaliland told us that due to security concerns, the UK has no/no intention of returning to Hargeisa. Instead, the UK intended to see if the parties are willing to come to another location (possibly Djibouti, Nairobi, or Addis) to engage in mediated dialogue, reach a consensus, and sign an agreement. ¶5. (C) Silanyo urged the international community to pressure Riyale to end efforts to extend his term and to have a representative of his party sign the framework agreement. If Riyale succeeds at manipulating the Guurti to extend his term for another year, Silanyo threatened a resumption of street protests. Silanyo said that he had informed both the Government of Ethiopia and the British Embassy in Addis Ababa of the morning's developments. ¶6. (C) Comment: In September 23 conversations (reftel), Silanyo and Warabe had hinged their parties' willingness to proceed on a concessions by the ruling party, including a minimal extension of Riyale's term and the participation of opposition party representatives in the interim government. The reported failure of UDUB to sign the agreement and to forge ahead with extension of Riyale's term is a setback for the reconciliation process. Pressuring Riyale to re-think his party's effort to unilaterally extend his term in office might keep this fragile process intact. RANNEBERGER