SOMALIA - PRIME MINISTER ON REGIONAL OUTREACH AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001887

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PTER SO LY ER
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRIME MINISTER ON REGIONAL OUTREACH AND
NEXT STEPS

REF: A. NAIROBI 1861

B. NAIROBI 1860

NAIROBI 00001887 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Counselor for Somalia Affairs Bob Patterson for reasons
1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke
and the Ministers of Defense and Planning met with members of
the Somalia Affairs Unit on September 5. The Prime Minister
had just visited Libya which has now confirmed it is
politically supportive of the TFG, including favoring
sanctions on Eritrea. Sharmarke discussed the TFG strategy
in the Juba region (ref A) and measures it is prepared to
take to ensure the allegiance of key regional leaders. He
told us that with a TFG victory, he would like to see
immediate renewed humanitarian assistance deliveries and
possible deployment of AMISOM troops into the port of
Kismayo. He said the central regions of Galmudug are ready
to engage with the TFG and that he is negotiating political
issues with residents in the regions. The Prime Minister
discussed outreach to and close personal ties with Alhu Sunna
Wal Jamma (ASWJ) and efforts to empower local administrations
in the Galgaduud region, and Galmudug "state." Sharmarke
raised the issue of needing to prevent humanitarian food
assistance from becoming "investments" in al-Shabaab. The
Prime Minister promised that the TFG delegation planning to
attend UNGA will have a clear strategy and specific proposals
to present in New York. End Summary.

--------------
Libya Offers Full Political
Support for TFG
--------------


2. (SBU) On the heels of the September 2 meeting with
President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (ref B),on September 5,
members of the Somalia Affairs Unit met with Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid
Sharmarke in Nairobi. Also in attendance was newly-appointed
Minister of Defense Abdallah "Boss" Ahmed and Minister of
Planning and International Cooperation Abdirahman Abdishakur
Warsame. The Prime Minister was en route to Mogadishu,
having visited Libya for the celebration of the 40th
anniversary of Qadhafi's rule.


3. (C) Sharmarke said the TFG finally won Libya's support
after a recent telephone conversation between President
Qadhafi and al-Shabaab leader Abu Zabeyr Godane went badly.
Godane reportedly told the Libyan President that al-Shabaaab
will never stop its efforts to overthrow the TFG and that
once they have installed a proper Islamic government in
Somalia, al-Shabaab will do the same in the region, including
Libya. Sharmarke told us that Qadhafi is now willing to
throw his personal weight behind defeating al-Shabaab,
including supporting sanctions on Eritrea.

--------------
Strategy to Engage the Juba Region
--------------


4. (C) The Prime Minister told us the TFG is still trying to
gain control of the Juba region (ref b). Sharmarke said he
and others are negotiating with Ras Kamboni militia leader
and Hizbul Islam member Ahmed Madobe (Darod/Ogaden/Mohamed
Zubeir) to recruit him into the government. The PM said that
he has not decided whether to offer Madobe a ministerial post
in Mogadishu or to formalize his leadership in the region.
At a minimum, we encouraged the Prime Minister to consider
keeping Madobe in Lower Juba instead of bringing an outside
administrator from Mogadishu to administer Juba's local
government structures. The TFG's senior leadership continues
to lobby Madobe to take on al-Shabaab and then declare
himself aligned with the TFG if he is successful. The Prime
Minister told us he was concerned about how Ethiopia may view
an Ogadeni-led Juba administration. He asked us to help
assure the Ethiopians did not disrupt Ogadeni efforts in
Lower Juba by sending Marehan militias south in a race for
Kismayo.


5. (C) The Prime Minister also raised the importance of a
humanitarian surge into the region as soon as security

NAIROBI 00001887 002.2 OF 003


permits, and a stabilization plan that can be implemented
after the military campaign to ensure that the initiative
"does not degenerate into a clan problem." To stabilize
security after the military campaign, Sharmarke said that he
intends to explore the possibility of requesting an AMISOM
contingent deploy to the port of Kismayo, if that would be
welcomed by Kismayo's citizens. Minister of Defense Abdullah
"Boss" Ahmed planned to raise this with AMISOM commanders.
Sharmarke said the deployment of additional AMISOM battalions
will be an immediate asset to the TFG. We explained that
rather than bring in another Burundi battalion, the United
States favored more training and equipment for the Burundi
contingent to increase their mobility and capacity to
control.

--------------
Central Region Outreach Continues
--------------


6. (C) PM Sharmarke echoed President Sharif's report that
the TFG is actively reaching out to the central regions.
During his recent visit to Puntland, the PM said that the
everyone, including Puntland President "Faroole" discouraged
him from visiting anarchic Southern Galkayo. The PM told us
he was particularly impressed with the Galmudug state
administration's governing capacity, including its
well-trained, uniformed Galmudug security forces. PM
Sharmarke said that during his visit to the area he began to
bridge the divide between Northern and Southern Galkayo and
encouraged a closer relationship between the TFG and both
Puntland and the central regions.


7. (C) PM Sharmarke and his ministers stated that ASWJ
remains a key focus of their outreach efforts. Giving us a
short history of the transition of ASWJ from a spiritual to a
political organization, all the TFG ministers emphasized, "We
are all Alhu Sunna Wal Jamma." The PM said he met with key
ASWJ spiritual leader Sheikh Omar while he was in Galkayo
where he promised to bring his Galgaduud-based followers into
the TFG. Sharmarke told us he would send TFG principals to
Galgaduud to shore up the TFG-ASWJ relationship. (Note:
After our meeting with the PM, we saw representatives of
Galgaduud's northern wing of ASWJ waiting to see the Prime
Minister. Their reaction to their meeting with the PM will
be reported septel).

--------------
Food Aid Concerns
--------------


8. (C) PM Sharmarke asked us about media reports that the
United States had halted food aid to organizations such as
World Food Programme. We allayed his concerns and emphasized
our continued commitment to humanitarian support. We
explained the Office of Foreign Asset Control's certification
process and the USG's worry that humanitarian assets could be
used to support al-Shabaab. The Prime Minister said that the
politics of humanitarian aid delivery remains a "serious
problem" and that in certain areas, al-Shabaab is clearly
benefiting. He said that there needs to be greater clarity
between food assistance to the needy and activities that
become an "investment" in al-Shabaab which enable them to
sustain the war. As an example, the PM mentioned the UN's
use of the Wajid airport which affords al-Shabaab leaders
with cash from aircraft landing fees. The Prime Minister
said he was fully supportive of efforts led by the Minister
of Planning and International Cooperation to work with the
International Donor's Group to introduce policies for NGOs
operating in the country.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) PM Sharmarke's hope that Libya will engage on the
TFG's behalf is encouraging, but we will wait to see what
comes of it. We note PM Sharmarke referred to ongoing,
"frank discussions" with Lower Juba's Ahmed Madobe and we
urged the TFG to continue to "recruit" Madobe, and prepare to
exploit his possible declaration of allegiance to the TFG.
The Prime Minister's engagement with ASWJ is encouraging but

NAIROBI 00001887 003.2 OF 003


we don't believe the TFG has honored its June mutual support
agreement to ASWJ's satisfaction. We continue to press the
TFG to pay more than lip service to ASWJ's northern wing, and
we worry that ASWJ's patience may be running out. The PM
mentioned President Sharif's trip to UNGA and we urged him to
work closely with his key ministers to develop strategy
documents and tangible priorities that could be addressed in
meetings in New York. While Sharmarke spoke in general terms
about TFG efforts, he and his ministers did not offer
specifics about the next steps they will employ to ensure
successful initiatives and stronger alliances in the regions.

RANNEBERGER