SOMALIA - PRESIDENT SHARIF ON THE GULF,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001860 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PTER SO AE QA SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRESIDENT SHARIF ON THE GULF, AL-SHABAAB, AND US RELATIONS Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger for reasons 1.4(b,d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On September 2, Ambassador Ranneberger and the Mission's Somalia Unit met with Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and four TFG ministers in Nairobi. Sharif said on his visit to Qatar and Dubai he made progress toward achieving his goal of ensuring Qatar's neutrality on relations with certain extremists. The UAE government pledged to support the TFG and Sharif asked for U.S. help in securing this assistance. Sharif discussed distinct groups within al-Shabaab, including some with links to al-Qaida and described his efforts to neutralize the terrorist group by drawing away certain individuals. He said that al-Shabaab is losing strength as most Somalis now question its legitimacy. The TFG President discussed outreach to the regions and the difficulties of mounting a coordinated operation to route al-Shabaab (developments in the Juba region will be reported septel). Sharif reported that the Prime Minister's trip to Puntland renewed engagement and the TFG is talking with Somaliland about common security concerns. Sharif said the cabinet reshuffle yielded mixed results and intimated that he might reduce the cabinet's size and recruit ministers with greater capacity. Sharif said that, following up on his meeting with the Secretary, he hopes for a more robust U.S.-Somalia partnership, including an additional tranche of funds to support the security sector. He told the Ambassador he plans to lay out his priorities for U.S.-Somalia engagement in New York and Washington at the end of September when he attends the U.N. General Assembly. End Summary. -------------- Productive Visit to Gulf States -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in Nairobi on September 2. The TFG President was en route to Mogadishu after visiting Qatar and Dubai. President Sharif appeared confident and was in excellent spirits. Also in attendance was Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Jama Ali Jangeli, Minister of Land and Air Transportation Mohamed Abdi Mohamed "Gandi," and Somali Ambassador to Kenya Mohamed Ali Nur. The delegation returned to Mogadishu the morning of September 3. ¶3. (C) Sharif told the Ambassador that his visit to Qatar and UAE was "productive" and that he met with Qatari leadership to secure their neutrality. "They want us to engage in talks with al-Shabaab, but produced no coherent proposals to that effect," Sharif said of Qatar. The President did not say if he and the Qataris had discussed an outstanding Arab League pledge of funds. He asserted that Qatar is not fully aware of the situation in Somalia and the negative role Hassan Dahir Aweys has played, but that after the discussions, Qatar has a better appreciation. ¶4. (C) Sharif said he would possibly engage in talks with elements of al-Shabaab, but only within a broader context of outreach to all Somalis. The President insisted that any negotiations must occur within Somalia, not outside the country. While Sharif doubted Qatar could "deliver" Aweys or key members of al-Shabaab, he is planning to send a technical team back to Qatar to assess the specific proposals they have in mind. Sharif said that one cannot always accomplish a goal in the first or even second round of talks and seemed hopeful that he could still gain Arab League support without the strings of reconciliation with extremists. Sharif also clarified that he would not talk with terrorists or the worst extremist elements of al-Shabaab. ¶5. (C) Sharif emphasized the excellent meetings he held in Dubai with representatives of the Somali diaspora and business community. He told the Ambassador that he had productive meetings with UAE officials who confirmed their support for the TFG. The UAE government pledged its assistance and Sharif said he believes the UAE will honor its NAIROBI 00001860 002 OF 003 pledges. He asked the Ambassador to ensure that the United States use its close relationship with the UAE to follow up on these pledges of support. We noted our earlier efforts to persuade delinquent Brussels pldging conference donors to come through for the TFG, and promised to keep up the pressure. -------------- Al-Shabaab: Fracturing the Group By Targeting Distinct Elements -------------- ¶6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about pulling support away from al-Shabaab, Sharif described a definite distinction among its discrete groups. Sharif said that some within the most committed al-Shabaab have foreign training and links with al-Qaida. While this is the smallest group within al-Shabaab, many are from Afghanistan and other foreign countries. In contrast, he said most of the native Somali Shabaab supporters have been pulled in "by emotion" or economic reasons - they have no other options to sustain them. He said there are others who genuinely question the legitimacy of the government and have real concerns about the direction the country is taking. Sharif said these latter groups are being targeted by the TFG to pull them from al-Shabaab and that many are now questioning the legitimacy of the extremist group. Sharif said the ideological, "real" al-Shabaab from abroad have foreign ideas and will never be swayed by negotiations. The TFG President said that others could potentially be included in discussions and their needs addressed. -------------- Regional Engagement -------------- ¶7. (C) President Sharif said that Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke,s visit to Puntland "changed our relationship with Puntland." Sharif thanked the Ambassador for U.S. efforts to encourage both sides to come together. Sharif said he plans to visit the region personally after the end of Ramadan. The Ambassador replied that we will continue pushing Puntland to improve its cooperation with the TFG. Sharif told the Ambassador the TFG has also initiated behind-the-scenes talks with Somaliland on security-related issues. He said the conflict with al-Shabaab requires a coordinated effort with the understanding that no single regional entity would be able to confront the onslaught of al-Shabaab on its own. ¶8. (C) The TFG strategy to confront al-Shabaab is to create a coordinated, multi-region, cross-clan front against al-Shabaab. The President said peace-building efforts by ministers from the regions were the TFG,s first step. To that end, the late Security Minister Omar Hashi was murdered rallying the people of Hiran. When the Ambassador asked Sharif about developments in Jubaland, the TFG President turned to Former Defense Minister, now Transport Minister Mohamed "Gandi" to reply. Gandi remains charged with building reconciliation and engineering an anti-Shabaab effort in Gedo and Lower Juba, per septel. President Sharif said the TFG is sending teams of TFG officials from Ethiopia through both the Gedo and Galguduud regions to assess the current condition of resources and heighten coordination on the ground. President Sharif said only simultaneous actions in all regions will succeed against al-Shabaab. -------------- Cabinet Shift Yields Mixed Results -------------- ¶9. (C) On the recent cabinet reshuffle, President Sharif expressed slight frustration with the results. He said that he and PM Sharmarke made the move partially to preempt clans from developing feelings of ownership over specific portfolios, and to soothe certain clans' feelings of dissatisfaction at being excluded from the cabinet (Note: Sharif appointed two Abgal to ministries, likely as a sop to that clan.) However, he and the Prime Minister have found that the various clans remain dissatisfied. Sharif noted that it is his job to help the Prime Minister in constituting NAIROBI 00001860 003 OF 003 an effective cabinet. He mused that since a larger cabinet still evoked such clan unhappiness, he and the Prime Minister might as well reduce the size of cabinet, keeping only the most effective ministers. -------------- Cementing the Bilateral Relationship -------------- ¶10. (C) President Sharif said he wants to arrive in New York for the United General Assembly (UNGA) on/about September 21. He said he hopes his meeting with the Secretary will yield increased assistance from the United States, including funds for the security services. Sharif made a specific and strong appeal for another urgent tranche of funds to help sustain TFG troops and support security operations. The Ambassador assured Sharif that we were working to get the funds to him expeditiously. The Ambassador said that, in addition to continued U.S. security sector support, together we should intensify planning so that, as the TFG expands its authority, the U.S. and TFG can work together to show results to the Somali people. ¶11. (C) While in the United States for UNGA, Sharif said he wants to define more clearly the U.S.-Somalia relationship, meeting with as many U.S. officials as possible, and possibly going to Washington for meetings with the USG, Congress, and others. Sharif also mentioned that he would like to travel to key areas of the U.S. to meet with the Somali diaspora. He told us it is time to show the Somali people some tangible results on the ground from our bilateral relationship. The United States' investment in Somalia now will yield Somali gratitude and a strong relationship in the future, he asserted. ¶12. (C) Sharif emphasized that his presentation in New York will focus on priority sectors: security, humanitarian, and ministerial capacity building in order to provide services. In addition, the TFG is cognizant of the need to focus on transitional tasks over the coming two years - a challenge given the security situation. Sharif said that the challenges are great as Somalia was literally re-building from the ground up. President Sharif agreed with us that his UNGA delegation should be composed of his best people with detailed plans of needs and objectives. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) With a possibly weakened al-Shabaab, a lull in fighting in Mogadishu, and fresh from a trip to the Gulf, President Sharif was confident and upbeat. He articulated TFG priorities in a clear, coherent way. In a positive sign, Sharif demonstrated that he has delegated important tasks to his ministers, especially outreach to the regions. If Sharif does indeed travel to Puntland, it could signal a new chapter in their relationship. The Ambassador encouraged the TFG President to come to New York with a detailed plan of action. In the interim, it is important that we provide an additional tranche of financial support through the PricewaterhouseCoopers accountability mechanism. RANNEBERGER