SOMALIA - HIRAN COMMANDER HIGHLIGHTS REGIONALISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001851 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E, AF/RSA AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2019 TAGS: KDEM MOPS PTER EAID SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - HIRAN COMMANDER HIGHLIGHTS REGIONALISM AS KEY TO SECURITY Classified By: Political Officer Joe Trimble for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: During a conversation with PolOffs on August 27, TFG Police General Mukhtar Hussein Afrah expressed optimism about TFG prospects in Beledweyne citing recent TFG successes in encouraging al-Shabaab defections, and signaled federalism as the key to security in Hiran region. Mukhtar thinks al-Shabaab is weak and his forces, though not well trained, will be able to defeat al-Shabaab in Beledweyne Mukhtar said al-Shabaab's using clan divisions to try and convince young men to join their cause. In order to counter these messages, Mukhtar and local leaders have formed a reconciliation committee to spread messages of peace and the importance of governance and local administration. Mukhtar said he and Hiran leaders have been successful in encouraging Hisbul Islam defections. Mukhtar said the reason he is gaining support is because people believe supporting him and TFG-aligned forces will result in a strengthened local administrations. End Summary. ¶2. (C) TFG commander General Mukhtar on August 27 spoke to us from the capital of Hiran region, Beledwenye. (Note: Mukhtar, a police general with clan ties to the region, was sent to Hiran following the assassination of Security Minister Omar Hashi and appears to have considerable credibility on the ground with local residents and TFG-aligned forces. End Note.) As part of a broader strategy to deploy police commanders to their home areas in an effort to shore up support, the TFG sent Mukhtar to Beldweyne. Local leaders convinced then-TFG administrator Abdirahman Ibrahim Ma'ow, who some locals suspected was involvement in Omar Hashi,s assassination, to transfer his militia to Mukhtar and leave Beledweyne for Mogadishu, where he subsequently announced his resignation from the TFG on September 1. Mukhtar, working with Hiran native and TFG MP Mohamed Elmi, made a lot of progress mobilizing support. (Note: Multiple contacts in Hiran tell us the perception of Ma'ow's complicity in Omar Hashi's killing is widespread in Beledweyne and has robbed Ma'ow of support in the region. Ma'ow's resignation for ideological and political reasons may be an attempt to save face rather than admit he was encouraged to leave town by his clan. End Note.) ¶3. (C) TFG and TFG-allied forces, inspired by their July capture of most of Beledweyne, decided in August to make a push toward Bulobarde in central Hiran. The offensive left Beledweyne lightly defended and al-Shabaab fighters were able to move back into their former stronghold in west Beledweyne Mukhtar assesses al-Shabaab has 600-700 fighters and 13 technicals in the area. Mukhtar thinks al-Shabaab is weak and his forces, though not well trained, will once again be able to defeat al-Shabaab in Beledweyne. Mukhtar said TFG and TFG-aligned forces in Beledweyne number 1,000 armed but largely untrained militia and 500 former TFG soldiers who are unarmed, but professionally trained. ¶4. (C) Mukhtar said al-Shabaab's strategy is to move into clan areas and to try and convince young men to join their cause. Mukhtar said al-Shabaab militia recently entered a mosque in Beledweyne and threatened people there to join them. On that occasion, the al-Shabaab gunmen reportedly killed 3 people, including 2 imams. In order to counter this pressure, Mukhtar and local leaders have formed a reconciliation committee to spread messages of peace and the importance of local governance and administration. Mukhtar said he and Hiran leaders have been successful in encouraging Hisbul Islam defections. TFG forces in recent weeks disarmed several Hisbul Islam defectors and began preparing them for reintegration into TFG forces or a return to their local communities. Local clerics are reportedly counseling the defectors in order to provide a moderate religious influence. The TFG reportedly returned weapons to two defectors who fought with TFG forces in the August fight for Beledweyne Mukhtar opined that U.S. support for schools in Hiran would go far in countering Wahaabi influence that has come to the region via Gulf State funded education. NAIROBI 00001851 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Mukhtar repeatedly mentioned the importance of federalism to his fight in Beledweyne. Mukhtar said the reason he is gaining support is because people believe supporting him and TFG-aligned forces will result in a strengthened local administration. Mukhtar said he gains support for military action when he goes into neighborhoods and advocates for local-level governance. "My security work will be in vain if people don't feel it will result in something they control," Mukhtar explained. Mukhtar opined that a regional or federal approach does not discredit the central TFG based in Mogadishu. Mukhtar asked PolOffs to encourage the TFG to recognize the importance of this approach. ¶6. (C) Mukhtar offered the following individuals as examples of key members of parliament and ministers who support federalism and local governance, and have influence in Hiran: --Minister of National Security Abdullahi Mohamed Ali "Sanbalolshi" (Hawiye/Hawadle) --Minister of Humanitarian Affairs Mohamed Abdi Ibrahim (Hawiye/Galje'el) --Abdirahman Abdi Ware (Hawiye/Hawadle) --Ahmed Omar Gaagoole (Hawiye/Badiadde) --Omar Hassan Dheere (Hawiye/Gal je'el) --Mohamed Omar "Makanne" (Beledweyne) --Mohamed Sheikh "Abadur" ¶7. (C) Comment: While Mukhtar's comments appear optimistic in light of the al-Shabaab return to western Beledweyne, his emphasis on the importance of federalism is being echoed by numerous contacts in multiple regions of Somalia. Our contacts tell us many fighters, for example in Lower Juba, have been pulled away from alliances with al-Shabaab because their interests lie in evolving regional initiatives and local administrations. End Comment. RANNEBERGER