SOMALIA - MIXED REACTIONS TO CABINET RESHUFFLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001818

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2019
TAGS: AMGT APER PREL DJ SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - MIXED REACTIONS TO CABINET RESHUFFLE

REF: A. NAIROBI 1735

B. NAIROBI 1732

Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b,
d).


1. (C) Summary: Since TFG Ambassador to Kenya Mohammed Nur
notified us of cabinet changes on August 17 (ref a),the TFG
has appointed one additional state minister and created a new
ministry of militia demobilization, signaling efforts to
address clan grievances. Somali reactions to the cabinet
reshuffle appear mixed, but mostly negative or indifferent.
Our contacts tell us that key subclans claim that the new
Cabinet in not representative while many Somalis think the
reshuffle largely maintains the status quo. Some TFG MPs and
clan leaders, however, highlight additional Abgal
appointments and key portfolio changes as positive
developments, and hail President Sharif for taking the first
step in what is rumored to be a more thoroughgoing shake-up
to come. Moving forward, the TFG will be challenged to show
key clans that the government is working in their interests.
End summary.


2. (SBU) Details of the newest appointments follow:

-- Minister of Militia Demobilization: Farhan Ali Mohamud
(Hawiye/Duduble). Mohamud is moving to Minister of Militia
Demobilization from the Information Ministry. Mohamud served
as an MP in the TFG's first Parliament, but left the
government when former President Yusuf split with
then-Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan. Though he never
joined the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS),
Mohamud is reported to owe his more recent TFG cabinet
appointments to the former owner of Barakat, a fellow Duduble
clansmen and financial backer of Shiekh Sharif during the
ARS. Some contacts tell us Mohamud was removed from the
Information portfolio because he was often absent from
Mogadishu. Other contacts report that Mohamud was removed
from a key ministry in order to make room for an Abgal
appointee because the Duduble are one of the smaller Hawiye
subclans. Mohamud holds a British passport.

-- State Minister of Interior: Abdirashid Mohamed Hiddig
(Darod/Kabalah/Abasame/Ogaden). Hiddig served as the Deputy
National Security Minister in the TFG's first cabinet under
then-Prime Minister Ali Gedi. Hiddig, before moving into
politics, worked in the humanitarian sector. He is reported
to have good contacts with Ethiopia and to be a close
associate of Ethiopian-backed Somali militia leaders, such as
Barre Hirale. Hiddig holds an American passport. His
appointment, some note, compensates for the removal of
Defense Minister "Gandi," who was also an Ogaden.

Reactions Mixed
--------------


3. (C) Many contacts tell us the Darod/Kabalah/Absame/Ogaden
clan views the loss of the defense portfolio as an insult to
the subclan. Though Ogaden contacts often told us that former
Minister of Defense "Gandi" was not up to the task, they
nevertheless balked at losing that key portfolio. Our
contacts tell us the Darod/Kabalah/Harti-heavy cabinet made
other Darod subclan leaders suspect that the TFG was working
to form an Abgal-Harti alliance at the expense of other
clans. Ogaden militia commander Ibrahim Shukri reportedly
thinks the cabinet re-shuffle signals the end of TFG outreach
to him and his supporters in Lower Juba. (Note: Shukri and
other prominent Ogaden clansmen have been in political and
military negotiations with the TFG for months regarding a
potential Ogaden-led move to take Kismayo port from
al-Shabaab. (ref b) End Note.) Ogaden discontent may be
somewhat ameliorated by Hiddig's appointment as State
Minister of Interior. However, Hiddig's reported affiliations
with Ethiopian-backed warlords Barre Hirale and General
Morgan could cost him support within the subclan.


4. (C) The Digil/Mirifle clan also appears unhappy with the
new cabinet's composition. Following the cabinet reshuffle,
former deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalaam Aden told us
that long-time Digil/Mirifle warlord Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade
would probably be upset by his perceived demotion from
Minister of Ports to Minister of Agriculture. Habsade
reportedly retains influence within the Digil/Mirifle and,
therefore, the ability to disrupt TFG-local relations in Bay
and Bakool regions. Our contacts tell us that more than forty
Digil/Mirifle MPs on August 24 met in Mogadishu to vent their
unhappiness their clan's under-representation in the new

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cabinet. Against the backdrop of these political tensions,
Habsade's militia on August 26 clashed with other TFG forces
in Mogadishu. (Note: Digil/Mirifle militia allegedly
counter-attacked after two of Habsade's gunmen were disarmed
by TFG forces. End note.) Hasade, however, publicly claimed
to support a TFG initiative to disarm his militia because
they were not wearing uniforms. (Note Our contacts tell us
CIC forces, calling themselves "Darawish", empowered
themselves to arrest any gunmen not wearing a uniform in an
effort to prevent extortion by militia at roadblocks in
Mogadishu. TFG Police Chief "Qeybdid" told us that the
decision to disarm gunmen out of uniform was made by the
Council of Ministers and that the resulting patrols were made
up of joint security services' personnel. End note.)

5.(C) Many contacts tell us they think the cabinet re-shuffle
changes little. The Mayor of Mogadishu agreed that the former
Minister of Defense "Gandi" was outside of Somalia for too
long to be effective. (Note: "Gandi" spent many years in
France, and has spent relatively little time in Somalia since
he was appointed Defense Minister. End note.) Over a dozen
MPs told us they think the new cabinet is widely perceived as
pandering to clan politics and therefore, represents the
status quo.


6. (C) Prominent Abgal contacts tell us that the addition of
Abgal clan members to the Cabinet was playing well among
their co-clan members and, along with the TFG's recent
support to Abgal militia in southern Galgaduud, appeared to
be helping President Sharif garner greater support within his
subclan. Hawiye/Abgal/Harti/Agonyar MP and militia commander
"Jelle," for example, told us the President's subclan thinks
the President is "50%" closer to them than he was 3 months
ago. Our contacts tell us many Somalis view Defense Minister
"Boss" and Foreign Minister "Jingele" as better qualified,
due to valuable governmental and diplomatic experience, than
their predecessors to fill these key portfolios.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) While apparent increases in Abgal support for the TFG
and better qualified appointments in a couple of key
ministries are positive developments, the TFG will need to
show key clans, among them the Ogaden, that the Government is
working in their interests. We are encouraging the TFG to
reach out to local and regional administrations, perhaps
through "special envoys" to the regions, to address Somali
concerns that the TFG cabinet is too narrowly-based.
RANNEBERGER