SOMALIA - MIXED REACTIONS TO CABINET RESHUFFLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001818 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2019 TAGS: AMGT APER PREL DJ SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - MIXED REACTIONS TO CABINET RESHUFFLE REF: A. NAIROBI 1735 ¶B. NAIROBI 1732 Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Since TFG Ambassador to Kenya Mohammed Nur notified us of cabinet changes on August 17 (ref a),the TFG has appointed one additional state minister and created a new ministry of militia demobilization, signaling efforts to address clan grievances. Somali reactions to the cabinet reshuffle appear mixed, but mostly negative or indifferent. Our contacts tell us that key subclans claim that the new Cabinet in not representative while many Somalis think the reshuffle largely maintains the status quo. Some TFG MPs and clan leaders, however, highlight additional Abgal appointments and key portfolio changes as positive developments, and hail President Sharif for taking the first step in what is rumored to be a more thoroughgoing shake-up to come. Moving forward, the TFG will be challenged to show key clans that the government is working in their interests. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Details of the newest appointments follow: -- Minister of Militia Demobilization: Farhan Ali Mohamud (Hawiye/Duduble). Mohamud is moving to Minister of Militia Demobilization from the Information Ministry. Mohamud served as an MP in the TFG's first Parliament, but left the government when former President Yusuf split with then-Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan. Though he never joined the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), Mohamud is reported to owe his more recent TFG cabinet appointments to the former owner of Barakat, a fellow Duduble clansmen and financial backer of Shiekh Sharif during the ARS. Some contacts tell us Mohamud was removed from the Information portfolio because he was often absent from Mogadishu. Other contacts report that Mohamud was removed from a key ministry in order to make room for an Abgal appointee because the Duduble are one of the smaller Hawiye subclans. Mohamud holds a British passport. -- State Minister of Interior: Abdirashid Mohamed Hiddig (Darod/Kabalah/Abasame/Ogaden). Hiddig served as the Deputy National Security Minister in the TFG's first cabinet under then-Prime Minister Ali Gedi. Hiddig, before moving into politics, worked in the humanitarian sector. He is reported to have good contacts with Ethiopia and to be a close associate of Ethiopian-backed Somali militia leaders, such as Barre Hirale. Hiddig holds an American passport. His appointment, some note, compensates for the removal of Defense Minister "Gandi," who was also an Ogaden. Reactions Mixed -------------- ¶3. (C) Many contacts tell us the Darod/Kabalah/Absame/Ogaden clan views the loss of the defense portfolio as an insult to the subclan. Though Ogaden contacts often told us that former Minister of Defense "Gandi" was not up to the task, they nevertheless balked at losing that key portfolio. Our contacts tell us the Darod/Kabalah/Harti-heavy cabinet made other Darod subclan leaders suspect that the TFG was working to form an Abgal-Harti alliance at the expense of other clans. Ogaden militia commander Ibrahim Shukri reportedly thinks the cabinet re-shuffle signals the end of TFG outreach to him and his supporters in Lower Juba. (Note: Shukri and other prominent Ogaden clansmen have been in political and military negotiations with the TFG for months regarding a potential Ogaden-led move to take Kismayo port from al-Shabaab. (ref b) End Note.) Ogaden discontent may be somewhat ameliorated by Hiddig's appointment as State Minister of Interior. However, Hiddig's reported affiliations with Ethiopian-backed warlords Barre Hirale and General Morgan could cost him support within the subclan. ¶4. (C) The Digil/Mirifle clan also appears unhappy with the new cabinet's composition. Following the cabinet reshuffle, former deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalaam Aden told us that long-time Digil/Mirifle warlord Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade would probably be upset by his perceived demotion from Minister of Ports to Minister of Agriculture. Habsade reportedly retains influence within the Digil/Mirifle and, therefore, the ability to disrupt TFG-local relations in Bay and Bakool regions. Our contacts tell us that more than forty Digil/Mirifle MPs on August 24 met in Mogadishu to vent their unhappiness their clan's under-representation in the new NAIROBI 00001818 002 OF 002 cabinet. Against the backdrop of these political tensions, Habsade's militia on August 26 clashed with other TFG forces in Mogadishu. (Note: Digil/Mirifle militia allegedly counter-attacked after two of Habsade's gunmen were disarmed by TFG forces. End note.) Hasade, however, publicly claimed to support a TFG initiative to disarm his militia because they were not wearing uniforms. (Note Our contacts tell us CIC forces, calling themselves "Darawish", empowered themselves to arrest any gunmen not wearing a uniform in an effort to prevent extortion by militia at roadblocks in Mogadishu. TFG Police Chief "Qeybdid" told us that the decision to disarm gunmen out of uniform was made by the Council of Ministers and that the resulting patrols were made up of joint security services' personnel. End note.) 5.(C) Many contacts tell us they think the cabinet re-shuffle changes little. The Mayor of Mogadishu agreed that the former Minister of Defense "Gandi" was outside of Somalia for too long to be effective. (Note: "Gandi" spent many years in France, and has spent relatively little time in Somalia since he was appointed Defense Minister. End note.) Over a dozen MPs told us they think the new cabinet is widely perceived as pandering to clan politics and therefore, represents the status quo. ¶6. (C) Prominent Abgal contacts tell us that the addition of Abgal clan members to the Cabinet was playing well among their co-clan members and, along with the TFG's recent support to Abgal militia in southern Galgaduud, appeared to be helping President Sharif garner greater support within his subclan. Hawiye/Abgal/Harti/Agonyar MP and militia commander "Jelle," for example, told us the President's subclan thinks the President is "50%" closer to them than he was 3 months ago. Our contacts tell us many Somalis view Defense Minister "Boss" and Foreign Minister "Jingele" as better qualified, due to valuable governmental and diplomatic experience, than their predecessors to fill these key portfolios. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) While apparent increases in Abgal support for the TFG and better qualified appointments in a couple of key ministries are positive developments, the TFG will need to show key clans, among them the Ogaden, that the Government is working in their interests. We are encouraging the TFG to reach out to local and regional administrations, perhaps through "special envoys" to the regions, to address Somali concerns that the TFG cabinet is too narrowly-based. RANNEBERGER