SOMALIA - TFG/Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a Experience Gains,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001796 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E and A/S Carson E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MOPS PTER SOCI MARR SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - TFG/Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a Experience Gains, Losses in Recent Fighting ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The last week marked a period of heightened military activities in parts of Somalia involving TFG troops and the allied forces of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a (ASWJ) against al-Shabaab and allied Hisbul Islam fighters. Several towns, including Bula Hawa and Luq in Gedo region which al-Shabaab and Hisbul Islam had earlier lost to the TFG/ASWJ, reverted to al-Shabaab after an unexplained TFG/ASWJ retreat. The TFG's offensive against al-Shabaab for the Hiraan region town of Bula Burte ended prematurely after al-Shabaab fighters attacked Beledweyne, a Hiraan town under TFG control, forcing TFG troops to return to its defense. Similarly, al-Shabaab managed to push ASWJ fighters out of Wabho, Hiraan region, reversing a loss of a mere week ago. A near-simultaneous ASWJ attempt to take control of Mahas, Hiraan region, failed. ASWJ maintains control of the Hawiye/Abgal/Waesle majority southern Galgaduud towns of Elder, Galad and, Ronnirgood. Last week also saw an increase in extremist attacks on AMISOM/TFG positions in Mogadishu. Despite the uptick in al-Shabaab attacks, observers in Somalia believe that al-Shabaab is getting weaker and more vulnerable while the TFG/ASWJ, although disorganized, are becoming more confident and assertive. End summary. TFG Gedo Gains Reversed -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On August 17, ASWJ fighters took control of Bula Hawa town after al-Shabaab retreated without a fight. (Note: The media reported that the ASWJ fighters were a mix of ASWJ and former TFG troops, chiefly Marehan and Rahanweyn clan militias, based at the border town of Dolo. End note.) ASWJ's fortunes were reversed on August 19, when al-Shabaab attacked and, after a brief battle, ASWJ retreated from Bula Hawa to Dolo town. ¶3. (SBU) On August 19, TFG troops from Dolo captured Luq from Hisbul Islam fighters without a fight, only to voluntarily retreat the following morning, August 20, allowing Hisbul Islam to return to its original positions. (Note: The TFG has offered no explanation for its troops' retreat. End note.) On August 22, Hisbul Islam fighters in Luq announced a merger with al-Shabaab, no doubt to aid their defense against further TFG attempts on Luq. Bula Burte: the Victory That Never Was -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Emboldened by their successes against al-Shabaab/Hisbul Islam in Beledweyne in mid-July, ambitious TFG troops moved to wrest Bula Burte, also in the Hiraan region, from al-Shabaab. On August 20, TFG troops engaged in a fierce battle, which lasted for close to twelve hours, against al-Shabaab fighters in Bula Burte. Despite a press release from the TFG President's communications office announcing the TFG capture of Bula Burte, the fighting ended inconclusively and al-Shabaab remained in possession of the town. As the TFG troops were fighting in Bula Burte, al-Shabaab fighters launched a tactical counter-attack on Beledweyne, successfully occupying the western part of the town in pushing TFG troops across the Shabelle River. ¶5. (SBU) Al-Shabaab's capture of western Beledweyne prompted the arrival of ENDF troops. The ENDF did not attack al-Shabaab, however. Instead they defended the rest of the town from al-Shabaab encroachment until TFG reinforcements, who had retreated from Bula Burte, reached Beledweyne and attacked. Al-Shabaab in the end returned to western Beledweyne after the ENDF left town later in the evening of August 20. Beledweyne is now under TFG and al-Shabaab/Hisbul Islam control. AWSJ Loses Wabho, Galgaduud -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On August 20, in an uncoordinated attack against al-Shabaab, Hiraan ASWJ (Hawiye/Hawadle) failed to re-take Mahaas town which they had lost to al-Shabaab in May. On the same day, Galgaduud ASWJ (a mix of several Galgaduud clans) lost control of the Hiraan region town of Wabho barely two weeks after they had taken possession of it. ASWJ contacts told us that Hiraan and Galgaduud ASWJ had originally planned to jointly attack al-Shabaab's base in Mahaas, but had failed to properly coordinate their efforts. NAIROBI 00001796 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) El-Der, Galad and, Ronnirgood towns in southern Galgaduud remained under Hawiye/Abgal/Waesle ASWJ militia control following clashes with al-Shabaab two weeks ago. (Note: There is no Waesle area currently under al-Shabaab occupation. End note.) Hawiye/Abgaal sources in Mogadishu told us that the other Abgaal subclans --Hari Abgal and Wabudhan-- have begun mobilizing militia in what could become an effort to remove al-Shabaab from their areas in Middle Shabelle region as a result of recent Abgal/Waesle successes. Increasing Attacks in Mogadishu -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The last week also saw an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extremists' attacks against TFG/AMISOM positions at ex-control Afgoye and the KM 4 area. On August 22, there was fierce al-Shabaab and allied extremist fighting against TFG troops at ex-control Afgoye. AMISOM troops in nearby Siyad academy had to intervene to repulse extremist fighters reportedly causing them severe casualties. On the evening of the same day, extremists launched mortar attacks at Maka-al Mukarma and KM 4 areas, engaging AMISOM and TFG troops in combat. Extremist forces reportedly retreated under heavy AMISOM shelling, again sustaining high casualties. In the confusion during the fighting, AMISOM shelling reportedly caused some TFG troop casualties. RANNEBERGER