SOMALIA - TFG-PUNTLAND AGREEMENT SIGNALS FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001795 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PTER SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - TFG-PUNTLAND AGREEMENT SIGNALS FORWARD MOVEMENT ON FEDERALISM; CONTENTIOUS ISSUES REMAIN REF: A. NAIROBI 1771 ¶B. NAIROBI 1604 Classified By: Counselor for Somalia Affairs Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 1.(C) Summary: On August 23, TFG Prime Minister Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and Puntland President Mohamed "Faroole" signed an agreement of cooperation, signaling forward movement on federalism and a warming of relations between the TFG and the semi-autonomous region of Puntland. Sharmarke's visit to Puntland, the first official TFG visit to the region since its January expansion, laid the groundwork for a planned September meeting between TFG President Sharif and "Faroole." Our contacts tell us the final agreement was reached when "Faroole's" delegation made concessions on the role of Puntland in TFG foreign policy. The agreement includes a statement of support for forward movement on federalism, reportedly encouraging budding local and regional administrations in other regions of Somalia. Some MPs, however, are resistant to federalism and reportedly fear TFG overtures to Puntland will give the Darod/Kabalah/Harti clan disproportionate influence within the TFG. Additionally, our contacts tell us some Puntland MPs, known for their secessionist tendencies, probably will push "Faroole" to move toward secession if the TFG parliament does not pass the agreement. In moving forward the TFG must work to contain "Faroole's" ambitions and to ensure Somalis that TFG regional outreach extends beyond an alliance with Puntland. End summary. TFG - Puntland: Better Relations ¶2. (C) TFG Ambassador to Kenya "Americo" told us President "Faroole" received Sharmarke well, despite "Faroole's" long-standing criticism of the Prime Minister and other Darod clan representatives of the TFG (refs a,b). Sharmarke met "Faroole" on the northern side of Galcaio for talks, before attending meetings in southern Galcaio in order to ease political tensions there. (Note: Galcaio town is split between loyalty to Puntland and affiliation with south-central Somalia. "Faroole" enjoys limited support in northern Galcaio, despite the areas affiliation with Puntland. Southern Galcaio is run by a Hawiye/Habr Gedir/Sa'ad administration. End note.) In addition to securing a future TFG presidential visit to Puntland, the talks succeeded in producing a 15-point agreement signed by Sharmarke and "Faroole". ¶3. (C) The agreement calls for the creation of a naval training center in Puntland to facilitate TFG - Puntland cooperation on piracy, a Puntland-hosted process for drafting the TFG federal constitution, and greater cooperation between TFG and Puntland ministries. TFG and Puntland ministries of education, for example, will reportedly work together to harmonize school curricula. Importantly, the agreement also includes a statement of commitment to federalism, called for by the TFG Charter and Djibouti agreements, and forward movement on the formation of the remaining federal administrations in Somalia. (Note: Current UNDP-provided constitutional support is operated out of Kenya and Uganda. Puntland's provision of office space will allow UNDP and Somali parties a relatively safe space inside Somalia in which to operate and, thereby, potentially bring a wider cross-section of Somali players into the constitutional conversation. End note.) Meeting Collapse Avoided, But Contentious Issues Remain ¶3. (C) On August 21, the talks appeared on the brink of collapse as "Faroole's" delegation pushed for Puntland equivalency with the TFG, demanding that Puntland delegates attend all international and bilateral meetings alongside the TFG. Our contacts tell us joint TFG - Puntland committees established at the beginning of week-long meetings were critical in salvaging the talks by walking "Faroole's" delegation back from the brink. In addition to agreeing to TFG representation of Puntland in international fora. Our contacts tell us "Faroole" also settled for a naval base in Puntland over his preferred TFG naval "headquarters". After positioning for an increased percentage of all TFG resources, to include donor support to the TFG, the Puntland delegation reportedly settled on an agreement that 25% of TFG educational funds be earmarked for Puntland. "Americo" told us the contentious question of who may broker international contracts was not completely answered by the agreement and will likely be addressed during future meetings between NAIROBI 00001795 002 OF 002 "Faroole" and Sharif. Puntland and Local Administrations Buoyed ¶4. (C) Our contacts tell us that public response to the agreement in Puntland has been mostly positive and some local administrations in other regions of Somalia are encouraged by the meetings. "Faroole" is reportedly satisfied with the current version of the agreement, but is concerned it might not pass the TFG Parliament. Our contacts tell us some Puntland MPs, known for their secessionist tendencies, will most likely push "Faroole" to move toward secession if the TFG Parliament does not adopt the agreement. Many in Puntland doubt the TFG's ability to follow through with its side of the agreement because the TFG is embattled in Mogadishu, but generally view the agreement in positive terms. Hiraan and Juba contacts tell us they are buoyed by the agreement because it indicates potential TFG support for evolving regional administrations elsewhere in Somalia. (Note: Sharmarke's visit to southern Galcaio was symbolically important because it showed that Sharmarke, himself a Darod clansmen, was also interested in the stability of a Sa'ad local administration. End note.) Anti-Federalists Present TFG Parliamentary Challenge ¶5. (C) Some MPs, particularly from the Hawiye/Habr Gedir subclan, are critical of the Prime Minister's visit. They complain the agreement gives the Darod/Kabalah/Harti clan disproportionate influence within the TFG. Long-time warlord and TFG MP Mohamed Afrah Qanyare, for example, called the agreement "illegal" and will reportedly work to defeat the agreement if the TFG presents it to the TFG Parliament. (Note: Many Habr Gedir oppose federalism because the subclan's historical homeland of Galgaduud, which would form the foundation of a Hawiye state in a federal system, gives the clan access to few resources. However, an anti-federalist position is not universally held within the clan. Other Hawiye leaders, such as former TFG deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalaam Aden and former TFG Prime Minister Nur "Adde," are reportedly working toward the formation of a Hawiye state. End note.) Comment ¶6. (C) In moving forward, the TFG must work to contain "Faroole's" ambitions and to ensure Somalis that TFG regional outreach extends beyond an alliance with Puntland. The "Faroole" delegation's original positions were clearly aimed at positioning him as Sheikh Sharif's equivalent, a long term goal of the Puntland President. "Faroole" will most likely point to the concessions he made in this agreement as justification for a hard-line stand during future negotiations over international contracts. The TFG will be challenged to shore up support for the agreement in the TFG Parliament. We are encouraging the TFG to highlight the agreement as an example of its willingness to partner with Somali regions and administrations. The TFG must work to ensure that representatives from all Somali regions take part in the constitutional process to manage some Somali perceptions that the process is being hijacked by the Harti clan. RANNEBERGER