SOMALIA - SOMALILAND OPPOSITION RECOMMENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001685 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND ACTING A/S CARTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM SO DJ ET XG SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SOMALILAND OPPOSITION RECOMMENDS INCREASED PRESSURE ON RIYALE REF: A. NAIROBI 1657 ¶B. NAIROBI 1670 Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Somaliland opposition leaders are outraged at President Dahir Riyale's recent rejection of a voter registration list in advance of previously postponed elections now scheduled for September 27 (refs a and b). They suggested the president was out of touch with public opinion, and counting on his security forces and international community timidity to allow flawed elections to go forward. Opposition leaders suggested increased diplomatic pressure on Riyale, coupled with concrete threats to curtail his freedom of travel and freeze his personal finances abroad. We encouraged the opposition to remain resolute but peaceful. End Summary. ¶2. (C) With CODEL Payne, on August 5 poloff met with opposition party presidential candidates Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud "Silanyo" (KULMIYE party),and Faisal Ali Waraabe and running mate Dr. Mohamed-Radhid Sheikh Hassan (Justice and Welfare Party, or UCID) on the margins of the AGOA forum. All three expressed anger and concern over President Dahir Riyale's rejection of internationally-funded voter registration lists in favor of "traditional" voting, including registration on election day and finger ink, for presidential elections now scheduled for September 27 (refs a and b). ¶3. (C) The opposition leaders claimed public opinion, and "majorities" in parliament's upper house of elders (Guurti) and lower house opposed President Riyale's plan, and supported the opposition. The leaders said parliamentary chairmen favored their position. (Note: In a joint press conference on July 31 parliamentary chairmen condemned the president's rejection of the voter registration list. End Note.) ¶4. (C) According to the opposition leaders, Riyale believes he can have his way on September 27. They believe Riyale is surrounded and misled by sycophantic advisors, is misreading public opinion, is counting on his security services to suppress opposition, and they hoped, is misjudging the international community's will to confront him. Riyale apparently believes Somalilanders' desire for peace is so strong that they will accept flawed elections, they said. Opposition leaders vowed that, after repeated concessions on election dates and codes of conduct in the name of consensus, their patience had run out. ¶5. (C) In response to our questions, "Silanyo," Waraabe, and Hassan said the way forward was to put more pressure on Riyale to negotiate. They praised the U.S. Embassy's press release criticizing the president's stand. The leaders recently met with EU reps, who have not issued a public statement, but who are considering sending a delegation to Hargeisa, they said. The opposition urged us to encourage clan leaders, civil society, the Guurti and parliament to remain courageous and steadfast in demanding free and fair elections. They asked us to preview with Riyale the possibility of curtailed development assistance. They recommended we, and especially the Europeans, threaten Riyale and his family with a travel ban and asset freeze. One mechanism could be the UN monitoring group, which could list Riyale and his facilitators as threats to Somali peace and security, they said. (Note: In a separate conversation UN Somalia Monitoring Group coordinator Matt Bryden (protect) confirmed it would be appropriate for the group to consider Riyale's intransigence on elections. End Note). Finally, the three recommended we press Djibouti and Ethiopia at least to remain neutral, and not encourage Riyale, which they suggested is the best that could be hoped for. ¶6. (C) Comment: The Somali opposition laid out concrete ways the international community could increase pressure on Riyale. As we did with these three leaders, we will continue to encourage Somaliland stakeholders to use carefully calibrated, and above all, peaceful efforts to convince the government to honor its election pre-conditions. In addition to direct engagement with Riyale, Washington may wish to NAIROBI 00001685 002 OF 002 examine how to leverage the UN monitoring Group. End Comment. RANNEBERGER