SOMALIA - AL-SHABAAB ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001594 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2019 TAGS: MOPS PTER MARR PGOV SOCI SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - AL-SHABAAB ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE CONTROL OF CENTRAL REGIONS Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 22, after a two-month lull, fighting resumed in Somalia's central regions. Al-Shabaab and Hisbul Islam fighters attacked Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a (ASWJ) in Gobo village, Mahaas district (Hiraan region). Sources in Gobo report that ASWJ fighters forced al-Shabaab to retreat, and claimed that ASWJ had killed a significant number of al-Shabaab militants, including its central region head. As of July 24, al-Shabaab controlled three of the five districts in Hiraan region: Mahaas, Bulaburde, and Jalalaqsi. The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and TFG-allied ASWJ forces control much of Beledweyne and all of Ferfer districts. ¶2. (C) ASWJ was reportedly less lucky in other fighting. On July 23, al-Shabaab attacked the ASWJ-controlled village of Warholo, about sixty kilometers south of Guriel (Galgaduud region),inflicting ASWJ casualties. Reportedly among the dead was a key ASWJ commander Colonel Aden Ali "Adan Dheere". Nevertheless, ASWJ is claiming that it held its ground and in its turn did much damage to al-Shabaab. Other contacts were predicting an additional al-Shabaab offensive in Eldheer district (southern Galgaduud region) which, if undertaken and successful ,would give al-Shabaab control of a swathe of territory extending from Middle Shabelle and Banadir regions through Elbuur District (Galgaduud Region). After a hiatus, al-Shabaab hit-and-run attacks on AMISOM and TFG positions, as well as AMISOM mortaring, resumed in Mogadishu. End summary. ASWJ Claims Success in Hiraan Region Fighting -------------- ¶3. (C) Sources in Gobo (Hiraan region) reported July 23 that al-Shabaab attacked ASWJ positions mid-afternoon, July 22. At the end of a one and one-half hour firefight, al-Shabaab was forced to retreat (ASWJ sources report). A second attack later the same afternoon was also repulsed. ASWJ claimed it had overrun al-Shabaab's base of operations near Mahaas while in hot pursuit during the second counter-attack. ¶4. (C) Hiraan Region ASWJ Spokesman Sheikh Bashir Sheikh Elmi (Hawiye/Hawadle) told Somalia Unit that Abdi Ali Hussein "Sandheere" (Hawiye/Hawadle),al-Shabaab's central regions' chief organizer/amir, was killed on July 22, along with two �00A;other key regional al-Shabaab personalities, "Guma-deed" and "Warsame." In comments to Somalia media on July 23, al-Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud Raghe "Ali Dheere" claimed that al-Shabaab fighters had been generally successful in the fight against ASWJ, but offered little detail. Another ASWJ contact told Somalia Unit from Hiraan region that al-Shabaab "got what it deserved" in Gobo. Heavy Fighting in Galgaduud Region -------------- ¶5. (C) Several sources alleged that al-Shabaab is moving additional forces to the central regions, while continuing to attack the TFG and AMISOM in Mogadishu. On July 23, al-Shabaab also launched four separate attacks against the ASWJ-controlled village of Warholo, near Guriel, Galgaduud region. An ASWJ contact told Somalia Unit in a telephone call from Dubai at the time of the fighting that the situation there was both "critical" and "chaotic." Another ASWJ contact told us that ASWJ had lost two senior officers, Commander Colonel Aden Ali "Adan Dheere" (Darod/Marehan) and his Deputy and Spokesman Sheikh Shafi'i. The losses reportedly caused confusion among ASWJ fighters but, the contact reported, ASWJ managed to defend its positions in Warholo. (Note: "Adan Dheere" served as a Colonel in the Siad Barre government.) Attack on Eldheer Planned? -------------- ¶6. (C) Well-connected ASWJ confederate Yahya Amir (Hawiye/Abgaal) told Somalia Unit that al-Shabaab is planning an attack on Eldheer district (southern Galgaduud region), which is currently controlled by ASWJ Abgal militia. (The attacks are planned against ASWJ in El-Adde and Mesagawa villages.) Amir predicted an all-out al-Shabaab effort to capture Eldheer, which separates al-Shabaab-controlled Elbuur district (Galgaduud Region) from Middle Shabelle and Banadir regions, most of which are already under al-Shabaab control. Amir believed that al-Shabaab intended to consolidate control of all or much of Somalia's central regions before resuming concerted attacks in Mogadishu. NAIROBI 00001594 002 OF 002 Mogadishu Fighting Resumes -------------- ¶7. (C) The pause in fighting following an AMISOM-led counter-offensive in Mogadishu on July 11 was interrupted by sporadic mortar attacks against TFG and AMISOM positions at the Kilometer 4 area from July 18. The hit-and-run nightly attacks have become more concerted since July 21. The TFG does not appear to have lost any of its remaining territory in these attacks. AMISOM shelling in response has reportedly produced civilian casualties. It appears that the current round of fighting is intended either to keep the TFG pinned down in Mogadishu, or is a prelude to a more serious offensive. ABELL