SOMALIA - AL-SHABAAB ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001594

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2019
TAGS: MOPS PTER MARR PGOV SOCI SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - AL-SHABAAB ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE
CONTROL OF CENTRAL REGIONS

Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson. Reasons: 1.4 (b,
d).


1. (C) Summary: On July 22, after a two-month lull, fighting
resumed in Somalia's central regions. Al-Shabaab and Hisbul
Islam fighters attacked Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a (ASWJ) in Gobo
village, Mahaas district (Hiraan region). Sources in Gobo
report that ASWJ fighters forced al-Shabaab to retreat, and
claimed that ASWJ had killed a significant number of
al-Shabaab militants, including its central region head. As
of July 24, al-Shabaab controlled three of the five districts
in Hiraan region: Mahaas, Bulaburde, and Jalalaqsi. The
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and TFG-allied ASWJ
forces control much of Beledweyne and all of Ferfer
districts.


2. (C) ASWJ was reportedly less lucky in other fighting. On
July 23, al-Shabaab attacked the ASWJ-controlled village of
Warholo, about sixty kilometers south of Guriel (Galgaduud
region),inflicting ASWJ casualties. Reportedly among the
dead was a key ASWJ commander Colonel Aden Ali "Adan Dheere".
Nevertheless, ASWJ is claiming that it held its ground and in
its turn did much damage to al-Shabaab. Other contacts were
predicting an additional al-Shabaab offensive in Eldheer
district (southern Galgaduud region) which, if undertaken and
successful ,would give al-Shabaab control of a swathe of
territory extending from Middle Shabelle and Banadir regions
through Elbuur District (Galgaduud Region). After a hiatus,
al-Shabaab hit-and-run attacks on AMISOM and TFG positions,
as well as AMISOM mortaring, resumed in Mogadishu. End
summary.

ASWJ Claims Success in Hiraan Region Fighting
--------------


3. (C) Sources in Gobo (Hiraan region) reported July 23 that
al-Shabaab attacked ASWJ positions mid-afternoon, July 22.
At the end of a one and one-half hour firefight, al-Shabaab
was forced to retreat (ASWJ sources report). A second attack
later the same afternoon was also repulsed. ASWJ claimed it
had overrun al-Shabaab's base of operations near Mahaas while
in hot pursuit during the second counter-attack.


4. (C) Hiraan Region ASWJ Spokesman Sheikh Bashir Sheikh Elmi
(Hawiye/Hawadle) told Somalia Unit that Abdi Ali Hussein
"Sandheere" (Hawiye/Hawadle),al-Shabaab's central regions'
chief organizer/amir, was killed on July 22, along with two
other key regional al-Shabaab personalities, "Guma-deed" and
"Warsame." In comments to Somalia media on July 23,
al-Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud Raghe "Ali Dheere"
claimed that al-Shabaab fighters had been generally
successful in the fight against ASWJ, but offered little
detail. Another ASWJ contact told Somalia Unit from Hiraan
region that al-Shabaab "got what it deserved" in Gobo.

Heavy Fighting in Galgaduud Region
--------------


5. (C) Several sources alleged that al-Shabaab is moving
additional forces to the central regions, while continuing to
attack the TFG and AMISOM in Mogadishu. On July 23,
al-Shabaab also launched four separate attacks against the
ASWJ-controlled village of Warholo, near Guriel, Galgaduud
region. An ASWJ contact told Somalia Unit in a telephone call
from Dubai at the time of the fighting that the situation
there was both "critical" and "chaotic." Another ASWJ
contact told us that ASWJ had lost two senior officers,
Commander Colonel Aden Ali "Adan Dheere" (Darod/Marehan) and
his Deputy and Spokesman Sheikh Shafi'i. The losses
reportedly caused confusion among ASWJ fighters but, the
contact reported, ASWJ managed to defend its positions in
Warholo. (Note: "Adan Dheere" served as a Colonel in the
Siad Barre government.)

Attack on Eldheer Planned?
--------------


6. (C) Well-connected ASWJ confederate Yahya Amir
(Hawiye/Abgaal) told Somalia Unit that al-Shabaab is planning
an attack on Eldheer district (southern Galgaduud region),
which is currently controlled by ASWJ Abgal militia. (The
attacks are planned against ASWJ in El-Adde and Mesagawa
villages.) Amir predicted an all-out al-Shabaab effort to
capture Eldheer, which separates al-Shabaab-controlled Elbuur
district (Galgaduud Region) from Middle Shabelle and Banadir
regions, most of which are already under al-Shabaab control.
Amir believed that al-Shabaab intended to consolidate control
of all or much of Somalia's central regions before resuming
concerted attacks in Mogadishu.


NAIROBI 00001594 002 OF 002


Mogadishu Fighting Resumes
--------------


7. (C) The pause in fighting following an AMISOM-led
counter-offensive in Mogadishu on July 11 was interrupted by
sporadic mortar attacks against TFG and AMISOM positions at
the Kilometer 4 area from July 18. The hit-and-run nightly
attacks have become more concerted since July 21. The TFG
does not appear to have lost any of its remaining territory
in these attacks. AMISOM shelling in response has reportedly
produced civilian casualties. It appears that the current
round of fighting is intended either to keep the TFG pinned
down in Mogadishu, or is a prelude to a more serious
offensive.
ABELL