SOMALIA - MANEUVERING TOWARD JUBALAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001552 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV MARR PINR PTER SOCI SO ET SUBJECT: SOMALIA - MANEUVERING TOWARD JUBALAND Classified By: Somalia Unit Counselor Bob Patterson for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. In early-mid July momentum for the formation of a Jubaland State appeared to be increasing as political, clan, and military players in the region began to shift alliances and maneuver for political positions. Our contacts tell us multiple Juba factions, to include would-be Ras Kamboni defectors, are tentatively working together toward the creation of a Jubaland State under the TFG, but tensions remain over who would ultimately lead Jubaland. (Note: The Ras Kamboni group, led by Hassan al-Turki has been working to overthrow the TFG.) We are encouraging various Juba leaders to continue political negotiations amongst themselves as well as dialogue with the TFG. End summary. ¶2. (C) Our contacts close to Ras Kamboni commander Aden Madobe, tell us Darod/Ogaden TFG Minister of Defense Ghandi recently told Madobe to "mobilize the Ogaden". Madobe's representatives have also had contact with the TFG Finance Minister. (Note: The Darod/Ogaden is currently the most powerful subclan in Lower Juba. The Darod/Marehan power base remains Gedo region, or "Middle Juba". The Darod/Majerteen have increasingly become smaller players in the region after former President Abudulli Yusuf's failed attempts to install a Darod/Majerteen-dominated administration there. End note.) Madobe in recent months has moved further away from Ras Kamboni commander Hassan al-Turki and our contacts tell us al-Turki and al-Shabaab forces clashed with Madobe's forces in Afmadow in mid-July. According to our contacts, Madobe is willing to work with other Ogaden leaders, including his fellow Ras Kamboni commander, Ibrahim Shukri to defeat al-Shabaab, marginalize al-Turki and work toward a Jubaland linked to the TFG. Madobe reportedly called NGOs in the area last week and said they could operate freely in the areas he controls. ¶3. (C) Contacts close to Shukri tell us Shukri is willing to work with Madobe to resist al-Shabaab and sideline al-Turki. Shukri last month spoke to TFG Prime Minister Sharmarke and our contacts tell us Shukri has formed alliances with some Darod/Marehan leaders. Shukri is reportedly seeking wider negotiations with Darod leaders due, in part, to pressure from local elders. Our contacts indicate Shukri is willing to negotiate with Juba Resistance Movement (JRM) Chairman Mohammed Amin and other Darod leaders. Amin, during conversations with PolOffs, has expressed uneasy willingness to cooperate with Madobe and Shukri. A contact close to Shukri opined it is important for Darod negotiations and discussions with the TFG to move forward to contain Madobe and Shukri's power. ¶4. (C) According to a son of the Ogaden Suldan, Darod leaders in mid-July were having ongoing discussions in Nairobi about the prospects for Jubaland. Other contacts told us 90 Darod leaders, to include representatives from various Darod sub-clans and some Darod MPs, met in Nairobi to discuss a Jubaland administration. The attendees reportedly agreed to the general principle of a Jubaland State under the TFG. However, the question of Gedo region and the Marehan remained a major point of tension. Several of our contacts tell us one solution being broadly considered is a Jubaland State with two regions, Middle Juba and Lower Juba. Middle Juba, in this scenario, would be predominately Marehan and Lower Juba would be primarily Ogaden and Majerteen. Our contacts, however, indicate the Ogaden and Majerteen would insist on the presidency of a united Jubaland. (Note: Darod/Marehan control over Gedo is unlikely to appease long-time Marehan warlord Barre Hirale who has long held ambitions to control the Lower Juba town of Kismayo. End note.) ¶5. (C) Comment: The growing pushback against al-Shabaab and al-Turki is a positive development in the Juba regions. Our contacts tell us al-Turki, sensing declining support among his subclan, is moving closer to al-Shabaab, which in turn is exacerbating tensions between al-Turki and Madobe. We are encouraging political negotiations among Madobe, Shukri, Amin, and other players in Lower Juba and encouraging them to continue dialogue with the TFG. However, many challenges remain for a would-be Jubaland State. While Barre Hirale would probably be unable to defeat a unified, Ogaden-led Lower Jubaland, he would almost certainly fail to abandon his claims on Kismayo and would most likely seek Ethiopian NAIROBI 00001552 002 OF 002 assistance in confronting his Ogaden rivals. Furthermore, Madobe and Shukri's possible willingness to work with the TFG and negotiate with other leaders in the Jubas could shift as quickly as the ever-shifting Somali political sands. ABELL