SOMALIA - BAIDOA FALLS TO ISLAMISTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000146 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E AND Acting A/S CARTER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - BAIDOA FALLS TO ISLAMISTS REF A: Djibouti 50 REF B: Djibouti 60 REF C: 08 Nairobi 2032 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 26, Ethiopian troops departed Baidoa, the seat of the Somali parliament, setting off local clan in-fighting that facilitated the relatively peaceful entry of al-Shabaab militia loyal to Mukhtar Robow "al-Masur." In meetings with local clan elders and local militia leaders, Robow helped restore order to Baidoa and reassure the population. Baidoa's fall is unlikely to affect political progress toward a unity government (refs A and B). As was the formula for al-Shabaab's takeover in Kismayo in August (ref C),in Baidoa the extremists capitalized on local inter-clan rivalries to take over the city. End Summary. ENDF withdrawal sparks chaos -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Early January 26, as part of a broader withdrawal from Somalia, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) departed Baidoa, the seat of Somalia's parliament. Most parliamentarians were in Djibouti taking part in deliberations to form a unity government and elect a new president (Refs A and B). Media contacts tell us that, to prevent a security vacuum, the ENDF left behind surplus and previously confiscated weapons and vehicles to Baidoa's main militia leaders, including that of Acting President and Parliamentary Speaker Adan Mohamed Nur "Madobe," Hassan Mohamed Nur "Sharti Gudud," and TFG Transport Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Habsade. According to our contacts, absent Ethiopia's usual mediation between the local groups, negotiations over how to divide the weapons degenerated into city-wide fighting. As the fighting spread, first the public, then the militias themselves began looting the offices of the presidency and parliament. Clan elders tried in vain to separate the militias and halt the looting. The rival local militias eventually abandoned the city as al-Shabaab entered. Al-Shabaab Capitalizes on Clan Affiliations -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Just hours after the ENDF forces withdrew, al-Shabaab militia in small numbers converged on the city unopposed, halted the looting and restored calm, according to our contacts. Rahanweyne clan elders, including Habsade, who had remained in the city, reportedly met with al-Shabaab Spokesman and fellow Rahanweyne clansman Mukhtar Robow "al-Masur." Together, al-Shabaab leaders and clan leaders toured the city and reassured the population. With Robow's permission, Habsade, his personal security contingent and several TFG and prospective ARS MPs left Baidoa bound for Djibouti to participate in the formation of a unity parliament. ¶4. (SBU) Subsequent reports are that Robow addressed Baidoa's residents in the town's soccer stadium. He reassured them of their security, pledged not to harm TFG civil servants and officials, and offered a two-day grace period to return looted property. TFG officials also seem to have called a truce: media report that Mohamed Omar Dalha, TFG deputy speaker, down-played al-Shabaab's takeover of Baidoa, terming them "fellow Somalis." Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Baidoa's capture by al-Shabaab is a disappointment, but not wholly unexpected, and is unlikely to affect efforts at political reconciliation taking place in Djibouti (refs A and B). MPs tell us they had moved their possessions out of the city before leaving for Djibouti, with the expectation the city would fall to insurgents. Although Baidoa was the seat of Somalia's parliament, the legislature has facilities to meet in Mogadishu, the seat of government. ¶6. (SBU) Comment, continued: As it did in Kismayo last year (ref C),in Baidoa a reportedly small al-Shabaab force capitalized on local inter-clan rivalries to take over the city. In addition to its military might, Ethiopia secured Baidoa by keeping a lid on the competitive impulses of the city's warlords. When the ENDF left, the knives came out, and al-Shabaab moved in. Furthermore, Baidoa's clan makeup favored Robow and his forces, and contributed to the NAIROBI 00000146 002 OF 002 ease of their success. Rahanweynes dominate the Bay region and its capital Baidoa, and they view Robow as one of their own. Many of Robow's al-Shabaab fighters are also Rahanweynes. In a media interview shortly before al-Shabaab entered Baioda, even TFG Minister Habsade reportedly said the town shouldn't fear an al-Shabaab take-over, as they were not "outsiders." Barring an ENDF return to Baidoa, and until a Somali unity government can mount a credible security force, Robow's thin al-Shabaab presence will likely be sufficient to control Baidoa for the foreseeable future. End Comment. Was this report useful? Send comments and questions to Somaliawatchers@state.sgov.gov. RANNEBERGER