THE REFORM AGENDA - KEEPING THE PRESSURE ON KIBAKI

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001293 SIPDIS FOR A/S CARSON AND NSC GAVIN FROM THE AMBASSADOR E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KE SUBJECT: THE REFORM AGENDA - KEEPING THE PRESSURE ON KIBAKI AND ODINGA Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger, reasons 1.4 b,d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The reform agenda will only be implemented if President Kibaki and PM Odinga exert strong leadership to make this happen. We must continue to make clear to them the importance the U.S. at the highest levels attaches to this (which complements domestic-driven pressure for reform). I recently met with interlocutors close to Kibaki and Odinga to press our message. End summary. -------------- Need To Implement Reform Agenda -------------- ¶2. (C) Following up on the May visit by A/S Carson and NSC Senior Director Gavin, I recently met with presidency Permanent Secretary Francis Muthaura and Minister of Lands James Orengo to urge implementation of the reform agenda. These meetings were intended to press our messages to President Kibaki and Prime Minister, since Muthaura and Orengo are, respectively, among their closest confidantes. ¶3. (C) My message was essentially the same with both. Following up on your visit, I emphasized our continued and growing concern about the need to move forward expeditiously to implement the reform agenda. I pointed out that you would be returning to Kenya soon, thus highlighting the priority we attach to the reform agenda. I noted concerns in Congress, and again emphasized that taking steps now to implement reforms would create a more positive context for Kenya at the AGOA forum. I underscored our view that Kibaki and Odinga share joint responsibility to exert bold and decisive leadership to carry out the reform agenda. I emphasized the need for the President and Prime Minister to engage in dialogue with the Kenyan people, directly and through their teams, regarding the status of the reform agenda. I stressed the need for results. -------------- Muthaura Admits Slow Pace, Blames Coalition -------------- ¶4. (C) Muthaura noted that President Kibaki has recently been more outspoken on reforms, including in his Madaraka Day address (see septel reporting on Kibaki,s clear statement against the culture of impunity). Although arguing that progress is being made, he blamed lack of faster progress on differences within the coalition that have obscured the reform agenda. He said that Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga are scheduled to meet on June 23 (they did meet; reported septel) to review the state of play on reforms and to work out next steps. I urged that the coalition management committee be used to promote coalition coordination. The committee was established several months ago to promote coalition coordination, but has met only once. (We know that Muthaura does not want the committee to meet because he cannot control it.) ¶5. (C) I pressed particularly on the status of the constitutional review process, police reform, and judicial reform. Muthaura noted that the budget just presented to Parliament contains substantial funds for the reform process (septel reports on the budget). Muthaura said that Kibaki and Odinga are working towards achieving a consensus on key elements for constitutional revision. Devolution of authority to local levels has been agreed upon. Regarding division of executive power, Muthaura claimed the two sides will agree on &an improved version of what we have now.8 ¶6. (C) With respect to establishment of a Special Tribunal, Muthaura argued that moving too quickly could &even cause civil war.8 He claimed that Kibaki and Odinga pushed hard when the bill to establish a Special Tribunal was tabled -- and defeated -- in Parliament. (Note that Kibaki and Odinga did meet with Parliamentarians and were, extraordinarily, present in Parliament for the vote, but we have heard from multiple sources that this was largely window dressing without a strong behind the scenes push.) Muthaura claimed that intensive consultations are underway within the coalition to work out a way to establish a Special Tribunal. If the Parliament cannot be persuaded to pass the constitutional amendment bill to establish a Special Tribunal, Muthaura said, then the Tribunal may be created using the existing constitution and legal structure. I told Muthaura that, a constitutional amendment is essential to guarantee the independence of the Tribunal. It would be virtually impossible to find a way within existing structures to establish a Tribunal that would be credible to the Kenyan people and to the international community. ¶7. (C) I pressed Muthaura on police and judicial reform. On judicial reform, Muthaura said only that Minister of Justice Mutula Kilonzo is focused on judicial sector reform. Muthaura claimed that the Task Force on Police Reform will yield serious recommendations which will be implemented. I told him that implementation of police reforms will not be credible as long as Commissioner Ali remains head of the police, given Ali,s involvement in extrajudicial killings, corruption, and other abuses. Police reform should not be about individuals but rather institutions, Muthaura responded. After I continued to press regarding Ali, Muthaura would only say &we,ll implement the task force recommendations, and then see about Ali.8 -------------- Orengo Pessimistic, Blames Leadership -------------- ¶8. (C) After I reviewed the state of play along lines similar to those I employed with Muthaura, Orengo admitted frustration about the slow movement on the reform agenda. He said that Prime Minister Odinga must bear substantial responsibility for this. Orengo made clear his view that Kibaki and his people do not favor far-reaching reforms, but at the same time, he said, Odinga has not been forthright in driving implementation of the reform agenda. Odinga has done nothing to reorganize his office to make it more effective; Odinga is a poor manager who does not follow up; and he is primarily focused on preparing for his presidential run in 2012, Orengo said. Odinga has avoided bold moves because he is &hostage to his difficult political constituency,8 Orengo said. In essence, Orengo concluded, Odinga wants to maintain support from the diverse elements of his Orange Democratic Movement coalition, and that means he has pulled his punches on issues like the Special Tribunal. ¶9. (C) Orengo said that, given the lack of leadership by both Kibaki and Odinga, he does not believe that the reform process will move ahead quickly ) if at all. Orengo said that the new draft national land policy may be discussed in the Cabinet on June 25 but, given the sensitive issues involved, he was not optimistic it would be implemented quickly. ¶10. (C) Just as I urged Muthaura to brief Kibaki on our conversation (which he agreed to do),I urged Orengo to have a heart-to-heart discussion with Odinga. Orengo said that he would do this, and commented that the concerns I expressed were valid. Odinga needs to be shaken out of his complacency, Orengo commented. I told Orengo that it is not too late for Odinga to embrace the reform agenda and push hard for its implementation. We want to help him be successful as Prime Minister, because if he fails then the coalition will fail and the historic opportunity to bring about fundamental reform will be lost, with an increased likelihood for future instability. ¶11. (C) Comment: We must continue to press Kibaki and Odinga hard to implement the reform agenda. They need to know that we see them as having shared responsibility, thus forestalling their attempts to play the blame game while the reform agenda languishes. Implementation will not happen without their decisive leadership. Both men remain very sensitive to U.S. concerns and pressure. End Comment. RANNEBERGER