ISIOLO'S SECURITY PROBLEM, PART I

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001238 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O.12958: N /A TAGS: EAID EAGR PHUM PGOV SENV SOCI KCRM KE SUBJECT: ISIOLO'S SECURITY PROBLEM, PART I REF: Nairobi 551 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Isiolo District lies in Kenya's geographic center and since colonial times the area has been a crossroads and settling place for people from all over northern Kenya. Pressure from an increasing population, decreasing water supply, and recurrent drought make competition over scarce resources a more pressing reality in the area. Resulting cycles of violence, livestock raids, and wildlife poaching make this reality a more tragic one. ¶2. (SBU) The effectiveness of modern state structures - such as the police, court system, and even government sanctioned peace committees - is often compromised through political entanglements. Also, modern state influences have sorely eroded traditional conflict resolution mechanisms. This is the first cable in a three-part series to describe the Isiolo region's security problems, the effect U.S. development programs have in the area, and what we are doing to encourage conflict resolution and stability. End Summary. -------------- Isiolo: Kenya's Geographic Center -------------- ¶4. (SBU) During Kenya's colonial period, Isiolo District was used as a holding area for the large numbers of livestock coming from the vast Northern Frontier District (which now makes up Kenya's upper Eastern Province and North Eastern Province) bound for market. Located in Kenya's geographic center, Isiolo has likewise become a crossroads and settlement area for people from Kenya's arid north as well as Ethiopia and Somalia. While ethnic Borana people (related to Ethiopia's Oromo) constitute Isiolo's majority, there are also significant numbers of Turkana and Somalis as well as some Samburu, who live in larger numbers in Samburu District, just north of Isiolo. ¶5. (SBU) Isiolo's current member of parliament (and Minister of Livestock) Mohammed Kuti is a Borana from a minority sub-clan. He is a doctor by profession and is married to an American citizen. In 2002, he beat the incumbent for the parliamentary seat (a Borana from a majority subclan) with the support of the Somali vote. He won the seat again in 2007. -------------- Increased Pressure From All Fronts -------------- ¶6. (SBU) There are a number of factors contributing to a resource crunch in Isiolo and surrounding districts, which in turn sets the stage for conflict. People from Kenya's arid north - and reportedly from neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia as well - have been settling in Isiolo for generations to escape comparatively harsher environments in their home areas. It is not unreasonable to assume that Somalia's collapse has contributed to this influx. Often these people make a living as herders and they practice subsistence farming. Thus, increased settlement brings more livestock that compete for increasingly elusive pasture and water while farming and settlements slowly reduce the extent of natural pastures. ¶7. (SBU) Isiolo's water supply is decreasing as well. The Ewaso Ngiro River, whose tributaries rise from the eastern slopes of the Aberdare mountain range and the northern slopes of Mt. Kenya, and which bisects Eastern Province, used to be a year-round water supply. However, increasing population on the lower slopes of Mt. Kenya and irrigation use by Kenya's cut flower industry, a mainstay of the country's exports, have taken a toll on the water supply flowing into Isiolo. Increased population and development in Isiolo town likewise demand water. Finally, local inhabitants claim that annual rainfall appears to be dropping, one more source of water that is no longer contributing to the river's flow. Droughts appear to be occurring more frequently and for longer periods of time. ¶8. (SBU) Some of the pastoralists' "fallback" areas (places where they can graze their livestock during extended dry periods) are no longer as accessible, either because they have been lost to development or because they have been gazetted as wildlife reserves. ¶9. (SBU) Not surprisingly, this combination of environmental and NAIROBI 00001238 002 OF 002 population pressure sets the stage for conflict. With additional contributing factors like the prevalence of divisive ethnic politics, age-old cultural traditions of livestock raiding, the free flow of small arms from Somalia and Ethiopia into the region, the lucrative possibilities for commercialized livestock raiding and wildlife poaching, and a government that is ill-equipped to deal with any of these issues, the occurrence of conflict is virtually guaranteed. -------------- The Gap Between Old and New -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Unfortunately, the mechanisms to deal with such conflict are far from perfect. As in other parts of Kenya where the nomadic pastoral lifestyle still exists, there is a gap between old, elder-focused, and new, government-focused, visions of conflict resolution, and lawbreakers find plenty of space to operate within it. Also, modern population, insecurity, and environmental pressures would challenge even the most effective resolution mechanisms. ¶11. (SBU) In Kenya's less-developed areas, the government structure - including security services - is not adequately resourced or managed to respond effectively to security problems. Often, police find themselves without a working vehicle, or sufficient gas, to follow up on reports of livestock raids. Inefficient and often distant courts take too much time for pastoralists who need to tend to their herds: repeated court appearances are not feasible. The performance of government-sanctioned district peace committees varies widely, and Isiolo's committee appears to have fallen under the influence of politicians, who manipulate it in unhelpful ways. ¶12. (SBU) At the same time, traditional conflict resolution mechanisms centered on community elders appear to have eroded with the rise of the modern state. When it comes to managing inter-tribal conflict that arises from livestock raids, the elder system has always played a crucial role. But while the elders themselves are loath to admit it, today's youth are not as beholden to traditional control methods as they used to be, and sometimes youth outright ignore the elders' dictates. While elders have always sanctioned some level of raiding activity, the influx of small arms has made traditional raiding activities more deadly and less controlled, and some speculate that the growing elder/youth gap is due to the new influences of rich political and business leaders who find it advantageous to co-opt youth into committing ethnic violence or supporting crime, such as commercial livestock raiding. RANNEBERGER