SOMALIA - SOMALILAND DEMOCRACY AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001179 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PREF KPAO SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SOMALILAND DEMOCRACY AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE Ref: Nairobi 1053 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Democracy in Somaliland is at a critical juncture. After being delayed four times, presidential elections are scheduled for September 27. However, negotiations are still under way between the three political parties regarding a Code of Conduct that attempts to level the playing field in the elections. The National Electoral Commission (NEC) is not prepared to lead the electoral process and remains the biggest obstacle to free and fair elections. Embassy Nairobi strongly recommends a high-level visit from the Africa Bureau in Washington to Hargeisa in the next one or two weeks to meet with President Dahir "Riyale" Kahin, leaders of the two opposition parties and the NEC face-to-face and strongly condemn further delay, along with a press conference on site. If travel to Hargeisa is not possible, Riyale should be asked to travel to Nairobi, Addis or Djibouti to meet. Because Somaliland is a bulwark of stability and development in Somalia and plays a crucial role in the region, ensuring Somaliland's continued democratic development should be a top U.S. policy priority for the Horn of Africa. Doing all that we can to ensure free and fair elections are held on September 27 is a major step in this process. END SUMMARY. -------------- Mediation Process Stalled -------------- ¶2. (SBU) After weeks of escalating tension and negotiation (reftel), Somaliland President Riyale's party (UDUB),the two opposition parties (UCID and Kulmiye),and the NEC signed an agreement document on May 27. It confirms that presidential elections will take place on September 27, 2009. The document also calls for the strengthening of the National Electoral Commission (NEC),for the three political parties and the NEC to sign a Code of Conduct aimed at leveling the election playing field, and acknowledges agreement on certain key issues such as the voter registration process and equal media access and air time for the three political parties leading up to the election. Our contacts tell us that Riyale balked at signing a prior agreement because of a specific clause that prohibits an extension of the presidential mandate if the elections do not take place on time, although the leaders of all three political parties (including Riyale) publicly stated their acceptance of the terms. The clause regarding the presidential �00A;mandate was ultimately removed from the May 27 document, which was signed by UDUB Secretary-General Jama Yassin Farah for Riyale's party and by the Deputy Chairman and Secretary-General of UCID and Kulmiye, respectively. ¶3. (SBU) Negotiations over the Code of Conduct began on May 28 and are on-going. The Democracy Steering Committee, a group of Nairobi-based donors, is asking that the three political parties sign the document by June 21 to provide sufficient assurances that the major political actors in Somaliland are serious about moving forward with the September election. Donors chose June 21 because experts estimate it will take approximately 14 weeks to get the technical aspects of the election in order. However, as of June 10, the parties are still negotiating certain provisions in the Code, and it does not look like the June 21 deadline will be met. According to Interpeace (our NGO partner who has the lead on supporting the voter registration and electoral process),UDUB is not willing to accept two elements that donors are insisting be included in the document: strengthening the NEC and creating an arbitration mechanism to enforce the Code of Conduct. -------------- The NEC: The Biggest Obstacle To Free and Fair Elections -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The NEC currently has seven members. Riyale directly appointed three of these members and greatly influenced the selection of the upper house of Parliament's, or the House of Elders (Guurti),two nominees. The opposition parties appointed the other two members. According to Interpeace, the chairman of the NEC--a Riyale appointee--is currently in Lebanon on a technical assessment mission, leaving the NEC leaderless, and the majority of the members of the NEC are "at odds with each other and not prepared to lead an electoral process." ¶5. (SBU) The opposition parties, and Interpeace in private conversations, are calling for the NEC to be expanded by four members. The May 27 agreement also calls for the NEC to be NAIROBI 00001179 002 OF 003 "strengthened." Experts in Nairobi say this could easily be done by voting in additional members by consensus, which would add competent, well-respected leaders to the NEC who could move the process forward. However, UDUB is against this expansion and says it is too late to consider altering the NEC. Riyale, who wields significant influence within the NEC, has done nothing to strengthen the body. It is widely believed among Somaliland donors in Nairobi that unless the NEC is strengthened, free and fair elections will be nearly impossible. In a June 5 conversation, a representative from Interpeace told the Somalia Unit that, "Interpeace will not participate in the electoral process unless the NEC is made competent." -------------- Creating an Arbitration Mechanism To Enforce the Code of Conduct -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The draft Code of Conduct currently talks of establishing a nine person Election Board of Monitors, a three person Arbitration Panel and an international guarantor. According to DFID colleagues in Nairobi, Kulmiye is seeking a single enforcement mechanism that comprises three members of each party plus two international members. UCID is open to suggestions. UDUB sees no need for additional structures and feels that the existing 15 member Election Monitoring Board, appointed by the NEC--but whose mandate appears to have run out--should be reconstituted and should be the body that enforces the Code of Conduct. Interpeace and the Somalia Unit agree that a stronger NEC would be able to facilitate a compromise on this issue. -------------- Somaliland's Critical Role in Somalia And in the Region -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Somaliland is a comparative bulwark of democracy and development in contrast to the remainder of Somalia. Somaliland transitioned to multi-party democracy in 2002 and has held relatively free and free elections since. Somaliland has been successful in preventing pirates from running operations from its territory--unlike Puntland, its neighbor to the east--and in preventing designated Foreign Terrorist Organization al-Shabaab from gaining a foothold in the region. Djibouti, which borders Somaliland to the north-west, heavily relies on Somaliland as a buffer to the instability and violence that characterizes much of the rest of Somalia. Ethiopia also maintains strong relations with Somaliland because of security concerns, but also to maintain access to the port town of Berbera on Somaliland's northern coast. Because of all this, ensuring Somaliland's stability and continued democratic development should be a U.S. policy priority for the Horn of Africa. Doing all that we can to ensure free and fair elections are held on September 27 is a major step in this process. -------------- Moving Forward -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Donors in Nairobi have agreed to collectively lobby Riyale in an attempt to keep the elections on track. On June 21, former Special Envoy for Somalia John Yates called Riyale and insisted there could be no more delays, and on May 25 the European Union (EU) Special Envoy for Somalia reinforced Ambassador Yates' message to Riyale in a telephone call (reftel). Donors have also sent a letter to the NEC and all three parties listing pre-conditions for re-engagement on the elections, including a binding agreement on September 27, fair and equitable use of state resources, endorsement of the final voter registration list, and a Code of Conduct with an enforcement mechanism. Following the delivery of the letter in May, donor representatives, including delegations from the EU and United Kingdom, traveled to Hargeisa to further press on the elections issue. (Note: Representatives from the Somalia Unit are unable to travel to Hargeisa because of Department restrictions on traveling to Somalia. End Note.) However, the mediation process to achieve these conditions has made little progress. ¶9. (SBU) As a next step, Embassy Nairobi strongly recommends a high-level visit from the Africa Bureau in Washington to Hargeisa in the next one or two weeks to meet with Riyale, leaders of the two opposition parties and the NEC face-to-face and strongly condemn further delay. If travel to Hargeisa is not possible, Riyale should NAIROBI 00001179 003 OF 003 be asked to travel to Nairobi, Addis or Djibouti. We would emphasize that increased development and counter-terrorism assistance to Somaliland would only start after a free, fair, and transparent electoral process. We would perform a significant public diplomacy effort around this visit to maximize its impact, both with the Somaliland audience as well as the remainder of Somalia. ¶10. (SBU) Riyale regularly holds closed-door meetings with international diplomats and then "spins" these meetings to his domestic audience as attempts at advancing the cause for Somaliland's recognition. For this reason, the Somalia Unit also recommends a press conference in Hargeisa to maximize media coverage of our message and to ensure that our message is not diluted or twisted. Embassy Nairobi plans to begin a media campaign aimed at getting out the USG message on the scheduled September 27 election in Somaliland. We plan to gradually escalate the frequency of the interviews as the September election date gets closer. RANNEBERGER