SOMALIA - LULL IN MOGADISHU AS BOTH SIDES TAKE STOCK

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001034 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E AND A/S CARSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID PINS SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - LULL IN MOGADISHU AS BOTH SIDES TAKE STOCK Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: While Mogadishu has experienced a week-long lull in fighting, nearby towns Jowhar and Mahaday fell to Islamists on May 17. TFG officials tell us they've stabilized Mogadishu, and are preparing to re-take lost territory in the capital as well as Jowhar, though they have not told us when. Ethiopia has reportedly taken up positions near Beled Weyne, perhaps to prevent an Islamist incursion into the area. IGAD ministers on May 20 called for UN sanctions on Eritrea and asked for a UN-enforced blockade on Islamist controlled Somali air and sea ports. On May 21 Kenyan officials detained a Kenyan-based Aweys associate attempting to fly from Nairobi to Somalia on an Eritrean passport. Transitional Federal Government officials continue to appear regularly in the media, to show the government is still functioning and to condemn Islamic extremists and their foreign associates. End Summary ¶2. (S) In Mogadishu a stalemate exists between Transitional Federal Government troops and their former Courts allies and Islamic extremists al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islami. The two sides have not fought since May 14, though sporadic mortar exchanges persist. TFG forces continue to hold nine of Mogadishu's 16 districts, as well as parts of the Yaqshid, Wardhigley, Howl-Wadag and Hodan districts. The TFG has not, however mounted serious attempts to re-take lost ground. TFG officials and others tell us the government is recruiting allies, organizing and stockpiling for a counter attack in the near future. They have also reportedly opened negotiations with the anti-extremist Al Sunna Wal Jamma organization on how to coordinate against their mutual enemy al-Shabaab. Al Sunna Wal Jamma has been especially successful against al Shabaab in the Galguduud area. ¶3. (SBU) On May 17, Islamists captured Jowhar after TFG-allied militias abandoned the town with little resistance. Al-Shabaab raided A UNICEF office and warehouse in Jowhar, stealing food meant for the area's severly malnourished. UNICEF reports the office's closure puts over 85,000 children at risk. Islamists also moved into the nearby town of Mahaday, significant only as President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's birthplace. On May 20 Security Minister Omar Hashi told us the TFG intended to take the town back; he reported that TFG-allied militia on May 20 had launched a hit and run attack in Jowhar that had netted one technical and two al-Shabaab dead. ¶4. (SBU) Though the Ethiopian government has denied it to the media, rumors persist that on May 18 Ethiopian troops took up strong defensive positions along a strategically important road roughly 20 kilometers inside the Somali border, near Beled Weyne. Beled Weyne is nominally under control of TFG-allied militias. Our contacts speculate Ethiopia may be forming a blocking position to prevent an expected Islamist push into the area. Early the week of May 18, TFG officials told us they believed Mukhtar Rowbow had left Mogadihsu after dispatching some of his fighters toward Beled Weyne. ¶5. (U) In Addis Ababa, on May 20 an Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) extraordinary ministerial was held to discuss Somalia. IGAD ministers issued a strong communique on May 21. The communique, to be reported septel from Embassy Addis Ababa, called for the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Eritrea for financially and materially supporting al-Shabaab and encouraging the TFG's overthrow. The communique also included a call for an UN-led air and sea blockade of Islamist-controlled areas. ¶6. (SBU) According to AMISOM officials, on May 21, Kenyan immigration officers reportedly detained Abdi Tahir, a Hassan Dahir Aweys associate and Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Ayr clan leader. Tahir was reportedly attempting to board a plane to Mogadishu, traveling on an Eritrean passport when he was stopped. Post in the past has had unproductive meetings Tahir to gain insights into Aweys' political intentions. Tahir lives outside Nairobi, though we do not know his citizenship. He could be held for up to 48 hours, we're told. ¶7. (U) TFG officials continue to make public appearances, and to denounce Islamists in the media. Over the past week NAIROBI 00001034 002.2 OF 002 President Sharif has allowed press coverage of government meetings to show the TFG was still functioning. On May 19 he delivered a public peace and reconciliation message to recently released prisoners jailed for Islamist ties under former president Yusuf. Since the start of recent violence in Mogadishu, Information Minister Farhan Ali Mohamed has conducted many media interviews and on May 20 he issued a press release criticizing al-Shabaab, highlighting foreign fighters and noting that a large May 19 explosion in Mogadishu was caused by Islamists preparing explosives rather than a TFG or AMISOM operation (NOTE: As part of our ongoing support for the TFG,s information efforts, Post drafted this press release. The Minister of Information added some information but left the substance of our suggested text. End note.) RANNEBERGER