TOKYO'S INDECISION FUELS OKINAWAN RALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAHA 000077 DEPT FOR EAP/J NSC FOR RUSSEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA SUBJECT: TOKYO'S INDECISION FUELS OKINAWAN RALLY REF: NAHA 67 CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond Greene, Consul General, U.S. Consulate General Naha. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The November 8 rally to oppose the Futenma Relocation Facility (FRF) was directed as much at Tokyo's inability to take a clear policy position on Okinawa as it was on the merits of the realignment plan. Beyond the normal politics of Futenma relocation, the rally showcased growing local fears that Okinawa's "special status" will be undermined by the new regime in Tokyo. Another subtext to the rally was maneuvering among local political figures for leadership in the post-LDP era. Despite an LDP boycott, conservatives were drawn to the rally in a bid to undercut efforts by People New Party (PNP) Policy Chief Mikio Shimoji to assert local leadership of the emerging new political order. Political gamesmanship notwithstanding, contacts express concern that expectations set by the Prime Minister for major changing in U.S. basing on the island could lead to a backlash against political moderates if left unfulfilled. END SUMMARY. NOT JUST THE USUAL SUSPECTS ¶2. (SBU) While national media and the Hatoyama administration are citing 21,000 participants in the November 9 anti-FRF rally, Consulate police contacts estimate that turnout was closer to 6,000-10,000. This was far short of the recent political rallies staged in Okinawa, such as the 2007 protest against changes the Japanese Government was making to school textbook references to the role the Japanese military played in mass suicides in WWII, but long time observers of Okinawan politics say that the level of participation was significant for a comparatively rushed event that lacked a central focus or "clear cut enemy." Given the strength of the communist and socialist parties in Okinawa, the event drew the expected participants, including elderly who use local communist hospitals and clinics and anti-base activists. However, there were also a large number of families with children with no clear political ties. TARGETTED OPPORTUNITY TO BLOCK SHIMOJI ¶3. (C) Despite being boycotted by Governor Nakaima and the local LDP party, the event drew a number of leading conservatives. Local media and even some contacts in the Okinawa Prefectural Government (OPG) have interpreted conservative Naha mayor Takeshi Onaga's participation as a possible sign of growing bipartisan opposition to relocating MCAS Futenma within the prefecture. However, contacts close to the event organizers account for his participation differently. They argue that Onaga, perhaps with the blessing of Governor Nakaima, took on the organization role specifically to counter the influence of PNP (formerly LDP) Lower House member Mikio Shimoji. They explain that Shimoji, with his personal ties to the local construction industry, has used his party's position in the coalition to cast himself as the politicians who can deliver for the prefecture's business interests with the new government. Onaga, by taking a high-profile role as one of the four organizers of Sunday's rally, eclipsed Shimoji as the major conservative force at the rally. Shimoji's attempts to carve out a leadership role for himself have been set back by his advocacy for merging MCAS Futenma and Kadena Air Base. Incensed at his recent efforts, rally participants heckled him relentlessly as he attempted to address the crowd. FEAR OF TOKYO DRIVES EVENT BUT MESSAGE MUTED BY DPJ'S PRESENCE ¶4. (C) National media focused on the messages directed at U.S. officials and the strong criticism levied at Governors Nakaima and Matsuzawa who issued strong statements from their Washington tour endorsing the FRF. However, participants in the rally pointed out that many of the speeches were directed at Prime Minister Hatoyama. Contacts close to the organizers also note that the timing of the event was motivated by growing fear that the new DPJ government may be poised to change Tokyo's relationship with Okinawa as much as it was the upcoming Presidential summit. They explain that the DPJ government's inability to formulate a coherent policy towards Okinawa, despite ambitious promises during the campaign, may indicate that Tokyo no longer views Okinawa as a special case (with the attendant levels of economic support) and could start treating Okinawa as "one of any of the 47 prefectures." Overt criticism of the new government in Tokyo, however, was tempered by the fact that DPJ was one of the four event organizers. ¶5. (C) Tactical maneuvering notwithstanding, Consulate contacts across the political spectrum caution that the relatively high turnout at the rally could presage a return of anti-base activism that has laid dormant for much of the past decade. Moderate DPJ Diet member Denny Tamaki, for example, warned the Consul General that the anti-base left has been in retreat for the past 10 years, replaced by pragmatic moderates willing to engage on base issues in a non-ideological way. Tamaki said that the Prime Minister's rhetoric about major changes to basing relations in Okinawa has greatly raised expectations. "He talks as if this was just like reversion in 1972," Tamaki added, "and if he doesn't deliver there will be a major backlash that will only benefit the far left." COMMENT: POLITICS IN FLUX ¶6. (C) The political jockeying that marked the November 8 rally is symptomatic of the fluidity of Okinawan politics in the wake of the change of government in Tokyo. Both conservatives and DPJ moderates are jockeying to fill the role long played by the local LDP as the manager of the prefecture's relationship with Tokyo. However, the deeper concern is that there may be no "special relationship" to manage under the new government. Moderates worry that Prime Minister Hatoyama's sweeping promises about major changes in U.S. basing arrangements is empty rhetoric, which will inevitably lead to disappointment and a backlash against Tokyo's efforts to defend base presence. There is wider concern about DPJ promises to "delink" bases from economic support, while simultaneously slashing "wasteful" public works projects that Okinawa has relied upon for so long. The sum of these fears is that Okinawa could end up as "just another one of the 47 prefectures" with little prospect for economic development or a reduction in the footprint of U.S. bases. RGREENE