POST-ELECTION MANEUVERING IN OKINAWA OVER FRF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAHA 000063 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP - FO/J SECDEF FOR OSD/APSA - GREGSON/MITCHELL/SCHIFFER/HILL/HAMM PACOM FOR J00/J01/J5 USFJ FOR J00/J01/J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/8/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION MANEUVERING IN OKINAWA OVER FRF REF: A. TOKYO 2000 ¶B. TOKYO 1987 CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond F. Greene, Consul General . REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Okinawa's newly elected Diet delegation, encouraged by the local media, is seeking to present a united front in calling for the new government to revise the 2006 agreement to relocate MCAS Futenma to Camp Schwab. While the local chapters of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),People's New Party (PNP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) agree that they oppose the existing plan, their views diverge widely on how to fix it. This disunity is likely to make it extremely difficult for the DPJ-led Cabinet to formulate an alternative to the current realignment package. The Governor and local Ministry of Defense leadership are more concerned that the incoming Hatoyama administration will pause the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process for the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) in order to avoid rifts within the coalition. Given the tight election calendar in 2010, a delay in processing the landfill permit could add significant political risk to the relocation program. The Okinawa Governor has expressed hope that the U.S. side will put early pressure on the new government to keep to the original timeline so that he can receive the FRF landfill permit request well before the next gubernatorial election. END SUMMARY. OKINAWA'S DIET MEMBERS REACT TO MEDIA BARRAGE -------------- ¶2. (C) Okinawa's local dailies (which have a virtual monopoly on the print media in this prefecture) have predictably waged a vigorous campaign on Okinawa's Diet delegation in the wake of last week's Lower House election, calling on them to view their victory as a mandate to re-open negotiations on our 2006 realignment agreement. The papers have reminded them and the public that DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama campaigned in Okinawa on a pledge to respect their views on plans to relocate FRF. While the FRF was not a central issue in any of Okinawa's races, incumbent Upper House member/DPJ Okinawa Chapter President Shoukichi Kina responded quickly to this pressure, calling on Governor Hirokazu Nakaima on September 1 to seek his "cooperation" on FRF, and announcing over the weekend that Okinawa's DPJ-PNP-SDP and independent Diet members had formed a new cross-party faction (the "Urunokai") to lobby their respective parties to review the bilateral realignment agreements. (Note: Securing the Governor's cooperation is key, because the DPJ included in its campaign rhetoric on the FRF a condition that renegotiations would be at the request of Okinawa. As long as Nakaima remains committed to the existing plan, the DPJ can absolve itself of its pre-election promises. End Note.) IN REALITY, NEW "URUNOKAI" DEEPLY DIVIDED OVER FRF -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) While the Okinawa media are emphasizing the solidarity of Okinawa's Diet members, the Consulate's political contacts say that Okinawa's normally byzantine political landscape has become more dynamic since Sunday's election as leading local DPJ, PNP, and SDP seek to fill the local power vacuum left by the LDP's defeat. These fissures have been particularly evident over the future of the FRF. The leader of Okinawa's local PNP chapter, Hiroshi Goya, commented to the Consulate on September 8 that despite the public show of unity, Okinawa's new Urunokai failed to reach consensus on the central question of whether MCAS Futenma should be relocated within Okinawa or outside it. The SDP is the only coalition party unambiguously and ideologically opposed to keeping the FRF in Okinawa, with the Okinawa's DPJ/PNP Diet members split into three rival camps: -- "CLEAN" DPJ OKINAWA MEMBERS OPPOSED TO FRF: The first camp is led by DPJ Okinawa President Kina, who has led local calls to relocate MCAS Futenma out of Okinawa. Interestingly, Chobin Zukeran, the newly-elected representative for Okinawa District 4 who has allied with Kina on this issue, told the Consul General September 6 that their position is not driven by ideological opposition to a U.S. military presence, but by fears that FRF construction "largess" would tarnish DPJ's clean image. While aligned with the SDP on the outcome, Zukeran expressed firm opposition to the SDP's efforts to limit the Hatoyama Cabinet's flexibility by including the FRF in the coalition agreement. -- REMAINING DPJ MEMBERS PRAGMATIC: Longstanding inter-party rivalries are preventing Kina from unifying Okinawa's relatively NAHA 00000063 002 OF 003 young DPJ contingent under his leadership. Notably, newly-elected Lower House member Denny Tamaki, who represents the northern Okinawan district that would host the FRF, refused to join Kina's post-election call on Governor Nakaima. Tamaki may also be responding to a key constituency that supports a continued U.S. base presence: Okinawa's base worker labor union (zenchuro) was a key factor in his victory. Tamaki also reportedly enjoys close ties to the prefecture's relatively powerful PNP camp. -- PRO-BUSINESS PNP OKINAWA SUPPORTS RELOCATION WITHIN THE PREFECTURE: Former LDP Diet member Mikio Shimoji was returned for a fourth-term as a PNP representative in this election; while Shimoji has joined Kina in publicly rejecting relocating MCAS Futenma at Camp Schwab, PNP Okinawa Chapter President Goya told ConGen Naha September 8 that Shimoji still favors relocating MCAS Futenma within Okinawa prefecture given how critical FRF construction contracts will be to Okinawa's economy. Shimoji is aligned with DPJ Vice President Seiji Maehara's conservative group in seeking a "pragmatic" approach to renegotiating the realignment package. GOVERNOR NAKAIMA WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Most observers believe that DPJ Okinawa and its allies will be unable to bridge their differences on FRF and are looking to Tokyo for direction. RENGO Union Federation Okinawa President Nobumasu Nakamura, for example, predicts the FRF will remain a divisive issue among coalition leaders in Okinawa. He explained to ConGen Naha poloffs on the eve of the election that Okinawa's labor movement has never been able to put the FRF to a vote. Unlike SOFA revision, which has strong and universal political appeal, Okinawa's unions are divided on the FRF, with the base workers' union increasingly supportive of keeping the FRF within the prefecture. ¶5. (C) Given these rifts, supporters of the realignment plan are worried less about the DPJ renegotiating the plan than local DPJ and PNP efforts to kick the issue down the road by placing a "freeze" on the FRF EIA in order to review of all FY10 budget submissions related to Okinawa. Okinawa Defense Bureau Director General Ro Manabe told the Consul General that efforts by Washington and Tokyo over the past year have convinced most Okinawans that realignment implementation efforts have turned an important corner. Losing this momentum, he added, is the biggest political risk factor facing the realignment package. Governor Nakaima expressed similar concerns during a September 4 meeting with the incoming Consul General. Privately, the Governor's senior advisors have been even franker, warning in separate meetings this past week that if we lose the momentum that we currently have on the FRF's environmental impact assessment now it may not be easily recovered given that Okinawa will holds its gubernatorial election in November 2010. ¶6. (C) Both Governor Nakaima and ODB DG Manabe urged the U.S. side to seek early assurances from the incoming government that it will not delay the EIA process. Governor Nakaima suggested that Secretary of Defense Gates' reported October visit would be a good opportunity for the DPJ government to walk back its rhetoric on the FRF. The Governor pledged to do his part to complete the EIA and landfill process by next summer, but said that he is powerless if the incoming DPJ decides to suspend the process. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Disunity within the incoming coalition and continued support from the Governor for the existing plan will limit the incoming administration's ability to articulate an alternative proposal on the FRF. Nevertheless, inserting a damaging delay into the implementation process in order to hear out all of the different voices may be tempting. A strong, early signal from the U.S. side on the importance of maintaining the EIA/landfill timeline will be helpful in keeping the process on track. Japanese officials are already planning to hold a Cabinet-level Okinawa Consultative Committee (OCC) meeting as early as October on the assumption that the DPJ does not freeze the program. Ideally, this would provide an important opportunity for the Governor to convey Okinawa's support for the existing plan to the new government, providing the Hatoyama Cabinet with a NAHA 00000063 003 OF 003 face-saving way out of its campaign promises to the Okinawan public. GREENE