SULTAN QABOOS IN IRAN: WHAT HAPPENED AND WHAT DIDN'T

S E C R E T MUSCAT 000847 SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/08/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET IR MU SUBJECT: SULTAN QABOOS IN IRAN: WHAT HAPPENED AND WHAT DIDN'T REF: A. MUSCAT 823; B. MUSCAT 833; C. MUSCAT 835; D. MUSCAT 856 CLASSIFIED BY: L. Victor Hurtado, CDA, Department of State, Embassy Muscat; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (S) Summary: Oman's Sultan Qaboos visited Tehran August 4-6 without extensive international or regional press coverage. Strategically, the Sultan wanted to encourage Iranian leadership to accept U.S. overtures, while at a practical level, he achieved his primary goal of securing Iranian cooperation on the prevention of cross-border crime and smuggling. Despite Iranian claims, it does not appear that Oman has finalized an agreement to help develop the Kish gas field, although Omani press confirmed that several other relatively minor agreements and MOUs were signed. While the Sultan's post-Tehran whereabouts are uncertain, Post understands that he has been vacationing and will return to Oman on Wednesday, August 12. End Summary. ¶2. (S) Announced prior to the Iranian elections, the royal visit was originally planned for June 28-30. Post-election events in Tehran significantly complicated planning, leaving Qaboos the choice of offending the Iranians by cancelling outright or of making news by being the first head of state to visit post-election Tehran. Sultan Qaboos chose the latter, but by carefully managing its press coverage, ensured that the visit was seen as simply part of Oman's consistent regional policy, a combination of neutrality and engagement. After an extremely rare interview in mid-July in which (likely with royal encouragement) the Sultan's Advisor for Cultural Affairs said Iran "should clearly seize the approaches of the new U.S. Administration and respond positively to these policies," it seems clear that the visit provided the Sultan an opportunity to reinforce this message privately and directly with the Iranian leadership. ¶3. (S) During the visit, Oman's foreign minister signed a bilateral border-security cooperation and coordination agreement. As noted in ref A, this agreement enhances Oman's ability to combat coastal smuggling and illegal immigration, covering "exchange of information, combating infiltration and fighting crime." While "infiltration" can mean any crossing of the border, the GoO commonly uses the term to refer to illegal economic migration. "Crime," in this context, is reserved for trafficking in persons and narcotics smuggling. ¶4. (S) The Iranian press claim an agreement was reached for Oman to finance development of Iran's Kish Island gas field in a $12 billion project to be completed by 2012. The gas reportedly would be piped to Oman and a portion of it re-exported by Iran. However, Omani press reported only the signing of an MOU to establish a mechanism for gas pricing between the two countries. After a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Omani minister of Oil and Gas Muhammad al-Rumhi told Oman's state news agency that Oman seeks to import Iranian gas, and that Iran expressed a willingness to supply it, however, "there were still some technical matters subject to further negotiations between the two countries. We hope to conclude these shortly." (Note: Executives of an American oil company recently indicated their doubts about the economic viability of the project, considering the high returns Iran expects for its gas. Additionally, the building of a 124-mile underwater pipeline makes a three year completion date highly unrealistic. Iran has made similar claims in the past and Oman has played them down, noting difficulties with the proposed project. Nonetheless, Oman desperately needs more gas, as it is locked into long term contracts selling much of its own gas production to Korea and China. Similarly, UK Embassy contacts assess that the Kish Island deal is stalled primarily due to Iran's high price point. End Note.) ¶5. (SBU) The other economic agreements announced are: a jointly built ammoniac and urea plant to be located at Hormoz in Iran's South Pars region; a power plant in the Iranian free trade zone of Qishim; an MOU eliminating double taxation; and an MOU "for the practical framework of, and the development of economic relations between the Sultanate and Iran." On the social and cultural front, the two sides signed an MOU to establish a Farsi language teaching center in Muscat and announced a program of "implementation of cooperation in cultural, scientific, educational, media, social and sports activities" (with no further details provided). ¶6. (S) The lack of press coverage likely indicates that the Sultan did not attend any of the festivities related to Ahmadinejad's inauguration. As reported ref D, Qaboos was seen off at Tehran airport on August 6 by a presidential staffer, Ahmadinejad's executive for administrative affairs Ali Sa'id Lou. A distinct violation of protocol in regional terms, the absence of a senior official was perhaps an Iranian comment on the Sultan's non-appearance at the inauguration. ¶7. (S) As of Tuesday afternoon, August 11, there was no official report of Qaboos' whereabouts, indicating he is traveling privately. An Embassy source reports that he "is cruising" on the royal yacht. According to this report, he will arrive in Dubai on August 11 and return to Oman on August 12. This report did not specify Muscat, so he may (per local gossip) be en route to a longer vacation in the southern city of Salalah. ¶8. (S) Comment: The Sultan's visit appeared to have met his primary goals of providing an opportunity to press the Iranian leadership directly on cooperation with U.S. overtures towards Iran and to complete a security agreement to reduce illegal immigration along Oman's northern coast. The remainder of the agreements continue Oman's pattern of appearing to work closely with Iran, while giving away nothing substantive. The conflicting press coverage on the Kish Gas Fields likely means that although the issue was discussed, a final agreement has not yet been reached. End Comment. HURTADO