EGYPTIAN AMBASSADOR REVIEWS PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S MARCH 18-22

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SIPDIS SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019-03-29
TAGS: PREL EG QA IR MU
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN AMBASSADOR REVIEWS PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S MARCH 18-22
VISIT TO MUSCAT

CLASSIFIED BY: Gary A. Grappo, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: In his March 18-22 visit to Muscat, Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak and Sultan Qaboos:



-- shared their optimism about the new U.S. administration;



-- agreed that continuing divisions among the Palestinians,
compounded by Iranian interference and unhelpful Qatari and Syrian
actions, exacerbated divisions within the Arab League;



-- decided to work for a common Arab position on Palestinian unity
and on Mideast peace at the upcoming AL summit in Doha;



-- discussed the current state of play in the Iranian presidential
election; and



-- expressed their opposition to the recent ICC warrant against
Sudanese President al Bashir.



In separate meetings between Egyptian FM Abul Gheit and Omani FM
bin Alawi, the former rebuffed Oman's offer to mediate the ongoing
dispute between Qatar and Egypt. End Summary.




2. (C) Egyptian Ambassador to Oman, Ezz El Din Fahmy, briefed the
Ambassador March 28 on President Mubarak's four-day visit to Oman
one week ago. The visit was both official and personal. The
president spent the evening of March 18 at the Sultan's official
Guest House at Qasr Al 'Alem in old Muscat for official meetings
and a working dinner. For these, he was joined by his foreign
minister, several economic ministers and the Egyptian ambassador.
The following day, the president was joined by his entire family at
the Sultan's Beit Al Baraka Palace outside Muscat for several days
of "vacation." The Sultan accompanied the president and his family
on all their in-country travel and hosted the Mubarak family for
dinner each evening. No officials accompanied either party during
the unofficial portion of the visit.



U.S. Administration: Positive So Far but a Need for Action

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3. (C) Both Arab leaders expressed their optimism about the new
U.S. administration and were especially encouraged by President
Obama's quick action to appoint Senator Mitchell to begin work
immediately on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Egyptian
president underscored the critical importance of a pro-active U.S.
administration to the Mideast peace process and, in particular,
highlighted the need for the U.S. to bring significant pressure to
bear on the new Israeli government to halt Israeli settlements in
the West Bank and begin the process of creating a viable
Palestinian state. Nevertheless, both leaders reserved final
judgment until they saw "concrete action" by the U.S. to resolve
outstanding issues.



Hamas Ready to Negotiate; Palestinian Unity Critical

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4. (C) The two leaders agreed that by provoking the Gaza crisis,
Hamas had failed to secure genuine long-term support for itself and
had erred disastrously. In fact, Mubarak allegedly reported, at
the height of the crisis, the Israelis had come "within 200 meters"
of demolishing Hamas' headquarters in Gaza. The Hamas leadership
now recognized that they had to come to terms with the Palestinian
Authority and reach an acceptable basis for dealing with the
Israelis, for which it would need the support of key Arab states,
like Egypt. The Sultan reportedly agreed, advising that Oman's FM
bin Alawi had noted a strikingly more conciliatory tone in the
comments of Hamas Political Chief Khalid Mishal in discussions with
Mishal and other Hamas figures during bin Alawi's January trip to

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Damascus.




5. (C) Mubarak reported that Egypt's efforts in trying to bring
the two Palestinian sides together had been frustrated by Qatar,
especially the Al Jazeera attack on Egypt, and Syria and by Iranian
interference. The Omanis tried to deflect the discussion away from
Qatar, dismissing the Qatari media attacks as "Al Jazeera being Al
Jazeera." The Omanis reportedly suggested that the Egyptians
should have allowed their media, think tanks and independent
experts to respond to Al Jazeera as opposed to responding directly.
Mubarak, nevertheless, made it clear that he perceived the attack
as one intended to tarnish Egypt's image and usurp Egypt's role in
the Mideast peace process. Both he and Abul Gheit underscored the
need for "the key Arab states" -- Egypt, SAUDI Arabia, Jordan,
Syria and Palestine -- to retain the principal role for leading
Arab peace negotiations with Israel and the U.S.




6. (C) Both leaders agreed on the need to form a unity government
among the Palestinians quickly and that divisions among the
Palestinians were exacerbating divisions in the greater Arab
League. Mubarak again harped on the unhelpful role played by Qatar
and Syria within the Arab League and also drew attention to Iran's
interference. In explaining the Omani position vis a vis Doha and
Damascus and Oman's recent conciliatory outreach to both capitals,
the Egyptian ambassador said he sensed that Oman wanted to maintain
its independence, as opposed to actually taking sides, so as to
play a potentially mediating role within the Arab League and also
to avoid prejudicing its own sensitivities and cautious position on
Iran. The Egyptian president emphasized to the Sultan, however,
that Iran "was not helping the Arabs" in Palestine. Both leaders
agreed that at this week's AL summit, they would work to advance
Palestinian unity and a common position on Mideast peace. (Note:
Neither Mubarak nor Qaboos is expected to attend the Doha AL
gathering.)



Lamenting Khatami's Withdrawal from Iranian Presidential Election

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7. (C) Both Mubarak and Qaboos expressed regret over the
withdrawal of former Iranian president Khatami from the June
election. Nevertheless, they recognized that more than one
moderate candidate on the election ballot would likely split the
reformist/moderate vote in Iran, assuring Ahmadinejad victory.
Moussave represents nearly as attractive a moderate as Khatami and
could still capture significant support among Iran's electorate and
even that of the Supreme Leader.




8. (C) Ambassador Fahmy opined that Oman may be experiencing an
uncharacteristically awkward period in its relations with Iran. He
said that Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani had requested to
speak at the Arab Parliamentarian Union gathering in Muscat last
January and was rebuffed by the Omani hosts. Separately, the
Iranians asked for an audience for him with the Sultan, which the
Omanis would not confirm until Larijani arrived in Muscat. During
the parliamentarian conference, Larijani made an unexpected stop in
Muscat and renewed his request to speak to the assembled conferees
and to meet with the Sultan. Both were rejected and Larijani
departed abruptly. The Egyptian ambassador characterized Oman's
treatment of the senior Iranian as "very irregular."



What about Al Bashir?

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9. (C) According to the Egyptian ambassador, both Mubarak and
Qaboos stated their opposition to the ICC arrest warrant for
Sudanese President Al Bashir, characterizing it as unprecedented as
it would set a very bad precedent for future and even past heads of
state. However, they also indicated that Al Bashir had handled the
matter very poorly, especially his decision to expel aid
organizations carrying out critical humanitarian work in Sudan.
Mubarak indicated that Egypt was looking at crafting some ideas to
be presented to the UNSC that would allow for greater action by the
UN in Darfur and lead to some alternative for Bashir to deal with
the ICC.

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On Qatar, No Help Needed

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10. (C) In a separate meeting between Egypt's and Oman's FMs,
attended by Ambassador Fahmy, the Omani minister offered to mediate
the ongoing dispute between Egypt and Qatar. Before bin Alawi
could finish his sentence, Abul Gheit interjected that if the
Qataris wanted to improve the relationship, they would have to take
the first step by apologizing for their behavior. It was Qatar who
instigated the matter and would, therefore, have to take
responsibility for correcting it. Egypt wanted the support of the
GCC countries in its efforts to address the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict but Qatar, by its recent actions, had sought to undermine
Egypt, even embarrassing Egypt publicly. The Omani minister was
surprised by the harsh tone of Egyptian's remarks and agreed "to
stay out of it."



Independent Assessment
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11. (C) Separately, Dr. Omar Zawawi, the Sultan's Special Advisor
for External Affairs, told the Ambassador that the visit had been
extraordinarily successful, allowing the Egyptian president ample
time for rest and his family, and both leaders significant time to
converse between themselves. Dr. Zawawi, who has been a close
friend of the Mubaraks for more than 30 years, commented that
President Mubarak appeared in excellent health, although he seemed
to favor one leg due to an apparent knee ailment. He further
characterized the Sultan's relationship with Mubarak as "one of the
closest he has" with his Arab counterparts.
GRAPPO